tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9107925279571003722024-03-04T22:39:37.757-06:00Beisbol's BlogNews and discussion of all things baseball, including MLB, prospects, high school/college, Nippon Professional Baseball, and Korean Baseball Organization.Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-63887984970243875632014-07-11T17:56:00.003-05:002014-07-11T17:56:51.039-05:00Beisbols.orgAll back content and new content can be found at Beisbols.orgBeisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-26766191111061495942014-07-01T17:16:00.002-05:002014-07-01T17:37:55.774-05:00MLB Mid-Season Awards Part Two<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">MLB Mid-Season Awards Part
Two<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/3EKyzqV.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/3EKyzqV.png" height="221" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>National League
Manager of the Year</b>: Ron Roenicke (Brewers)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Let me be the first in stating that the Manager of the
Year award is like the RBI of awards, relatively meaningless in comparison to
MVP or Cy Young. It is much easier to point to somebody and say what a terrible
manager they are as opposed to picking out the good ones. There are probably a
couple good selections for this award, but so far I have to hand it to Ron
Roenicke for sticking with Scooter Gennett at second base, when a number of
managers would have probably let Rickie Weeks be the permanent second baseman. He
also deserves credit with sticking Francisco Rodriguez as the closer again,
where Rodriguez has performed well at this year. Coming into the year I did not
expect this team to be in the National League Central playoff hunt, but here we
are, with the Brewers leading the tough division by 6.5 games. Have to give
some credit to Ron for decisions that have lead to their success.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMFOrY_OEvIRUcJl7X6E45pASggmQT5OTisESP4T0l-o7rDnNOqURV6GhABpxaygh_vLWw3OZf8SVRtoHqHx3bJuHzUtso19POmkWkXUFktqE5YxEX58jesGiwz_vVfwrGZWqu_41YC_uq/s1600/Bob+Melvin+Oakland+Athletics+v+Chicago+White+roYn1dxNL8Bl.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMFOrY_OEvIRUcJl7X6E45pASggmQT5OTisESP4T0l-o7rDnNOqURV6GhABpxaygh_vLWw3OZf8SVRtoHqHx3bJuHzUtso19POmkWkXUFktqE5YxEX58jesGiwz_vVfwrGZWqu_41YC_uq/s1600/Bob+Melvin+Oakland+Athletics+v+Chicago+White+roYn1dxNL8Bl.jpg" height="266" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>American League
Manager of the Year</b>: Bob Melvin (Athletics)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Melvin has done a good job in Oakland this year once
again, leading the American League West by five games. He probably has kept the
offensively-anemic Eric Sogard in at second base for too many games, but the
other choice for the spot is Nick Punto, so I cannot really blame Melvin.
Melvin also deserves credit for keeping Brandon Moss as the daily first baseman
as opposed to trying out Daric Barton, who has failed at first base time and
time again. Oakland’s rotation has performed better this season than last, even
with the injuries, and I will give Melvin some credit with not freaking out
when given Scott Kazmir as your number two starter in 2014. Oakland currently
sits with a wacky run differential of <span class="greenfont">+134, which Melvin
gets a tiny bit of credit for utilizing guys properly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/teApo5t.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/teApo5t.jpg" height="268" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="greenfont"><b>Major
League Baseball Comeback Player of the Year</b>: Starting Pitcher Scott Kazmir
(Athletics)</span></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span class="greenfont"> It is hard to overemphasize how done
Scott Kazmir looked a few years ago. Despite having a strikeout per nine
innings rate of 9.2 last year, Kazmir posted a 4.04 ERA, which while improved
was far from the ace that was once of the Tampa Bay Rays (then Devil Rays). In
103.1 innings pitched, Kazmir has an ERA of 2.61, an ERA+ of 145, a hits per
nine innings rate of 7.1, a career low. His walks per nine innings are also a
career low at 2.1. His strikeouts per nine innings are only 7.9, which is a bit
disappointing, but he is not going for the Cy Young award. He is the number two
starter on the best team in baseball and has produced when injury struck
Oakland’s rotation. I am not sure it is fair to say Scott Kazmir is back, but
he is no longer the joke he was thought of just a couple of years ago.</span><br />
<span class="greenfont"><br /></span>
<span class="greenfont"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/0oAvrGb.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/0oAvrGb.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span class="greenfont"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="greenfont"><b>National
League Comeback Player of the Year</b>: Starting Pitcher Josh Beckett (Dodgers)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span class="greenfont">
</span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span class="greenfont"> Beckett was viewed as dead weight
last year, posting an ERA+ of 70 for the Los Angeles Dodgers, with his hits per
nine innings reaching a high of 10.4. Beckett was walking 3.1 batters per nine
innings. His home runs per nine innings reached a career high of 1.66. Everything
suddenly changed for Beckett this year, reducing his walks per nine innings to
2.69 and his home runs per nine innings to 1.06. This year Josh Beckett has an
ERA of 2.11 and an ERA+ of 168. Explaining Beckett’s magical comeback is
probably another article if I could find a way to really explain it, but
Beckett has had various slumps throughout his career, the latest lasting two
full seasons in which he posted an ERA+ of 89 and 70. Beckett is holding his
own and proving to be better than some of the others in the rotation (Greinke,
Haren, Ryu). In ERA+, he is second only to the best pitcher in baseball,
Clayton Kershaw, who has an ERA+ of 174. Beckett just being a step behind
Kershaw after being dead weight last year makes him the National League
Comeback Player of the Year. </span></div>
</div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-7541605016583146822014-06-30T16:48:00.005-05:002014-06-30T16:50:30.210-05:00MLB Mid-Season Awards Part One<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">MLB Mid-Season Awards Part
One<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
July begins tomorrow, meaning the all-star game
approaches, and we are more than halfway through the season. We have a large
enough sample to make some effort in determining who should win various awards
so far based on performance throughout the season. Things can and will
obviously change from here until season’s end, so these are just for fun.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/39Ui8Fz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/39Ui8Fz.jpg" height="260" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>American League Most
Valuable Player</b>: Outfielder Mike Trout (Angels)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Trout continues to be not only the best player in
baseball, but continues a trend that puts him in elite company. Trout, age
twenty-two, is now the all-time leader in fWAR among MLB players in history
through their age twenty-two season. He currently leads Ty Cobb by 0.7 fWAR
with a good portion of the season remaining. As of right now, Trout is a once-in-a-lifetime-type
player. In 344 plate appearances this season, Mike Trout has an OPS of 1.017, a
career-high in an already impressive career. His weighted on base average, or
wOBA, is second in all of baseball only to Troy Tulowitzki, at .432. Tulowitzki
has a pretty stark home/away difference in terms of batting and power, giving
Trout the edge as the best player in baseball. This is not as stark with Trout,
who has a home OPS of 1.025 and an away OPS of 1.009. That kind of consistency
is what makes Trout a better hitter. Beyond the bat, Trout is as close to
perfect as you will see today. His baserunning is arguably the best in baseball,
with good speed, especially for someone with his size. Some may say he has
developed an 80 power tool, hitting a home run that was unofficially measured
at 489 feet, but regardless of where you rate the power, it is there, as he has
hit eighteen thus far and is likely to reach a career-high by year’s end. Trout
has been good-to-very good defensively, spending the entire season in center
field. I can understand the argument behind Tulowitzki if you want to try it,
but I think the home/away split and baserunning separates him by quite a bit.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/h0Vg8fm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/h0Vg8fm.jpg" height="262" width="400" /></a></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>National League Most
Valuable Player</b>: Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
At
Coors, Tulowitzki is Superman, putting up a ridiculous OPS of 1.309. His home
wOBA is scale-breaking at .553. Tulowitzki OPS away from Coors has been .831,
which is a massive split. His away wOBA is .362, which is still very good, but
not the Superman-type stuff we have been seeing at Coors. Despite this huge
split, Tulowitzki is my choice for National League MVP. I am not going to hand
wave away numbers because they were at Coors. Would he be less productive if he
were on say the Pirates? Yes, but we are not talking in theoretical here. Not
only is Tulowitzki one of the game’s best offensive players, but he plays good
defense at one of the most valuable positions in baseball, if not the most
valuable, at shortstop. I am not much of defensive metrics in producing usable
objective numbers, especially at a position like shortstop, but that is another
long discussion. Some might argue Giancarlo Stanton, who does not have a big
split like Troy Tulowitzki, or Jonathan Lucroy because you think pitch framing
is the most valuable asset in baseball (wait for my upcoming series on pitch
framing), and I think as the season progresses Stanton might make a good run.
Stanton has an OPS of .999 and a wOBA of .422 currently and plays right field,
which is also a very valuable position. I really think there is a fifty/fifty
shot at Stanton being named the MVP at year’s end.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/Om19rxi.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/Om19rxi.jpg" height="263" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>American League Cy
Young Award</b>: Starting Pitcher Felix Hernandez (Mariners)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
This is probably the toughest race of all award races,
but I am going to go with Felix Hernandez by a hair over Masahiro Tanaka. They
are close in nearly all categories, with Tanaka leading in strikeouts per nine
innings and walks per nine innings, but Felix clobbers him in home runs per
nine innings, giving up 0.28 per nine innings as opposed to Tanaka’s 1.01 per
nine innings. The first argument against this is that Felix pitches in a more
pitcher-friendly park, which is true, but like the Tulowitzki argument, I do
not like normalizing park factors, especially with pitchers because they
actually play their games in these stadiums. If we were talking who is
theoretically the better pitcher, then that HR/9 rate might mean less, but we
are talking in reality. Hernandez also edges him in my favorite pitching
statistic, SIERA, with a SIERA of 2.42 to Tanaka’s 2.52. Someone is going to
take this as I do not like Masahiro Tanaka or I am magically biased to the
Seattle Mariners or something, but that is not that case. I really would not be
opposed to flipping a coin at this point because things are so close between
the two.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/HXBIJZS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/HXBIJZS.jpg" height="225" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>National League Cy
Young Award</b>: Starting Pitcher Johnny Cueto (Reds)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
In a somwhat easier race, the NL Cy Young belongs to
Johnny Cueto thus far. Cueto has been a killer on the mound, giving up only 5.4
hits per nine innings, which plays a part in his league-leading ERA of 1.88.
After 124.1 innings pitched, Cueto’s ERA+ sits at 195, which has the average
pitcher at 100, which can give you an idea how great Cueto has been for the
Cincinnati Reds this season. Although he only strikes out 8.83 per nine
innings, he does walk a low 2.10 batters per nine innings and only manages to
give up 0.65 home runs per nine innings. Adam Wainwright is a close second, but
it is not hairsplitting, like the AL Cy Young race, as he gives up one entire
hit more than Cueto per nine innings, despite having a good edge in walks per
nine innings, only walking 1.7 per nine innings to Cueto’s 2.1 per nine
innings. This is also a close race and there is a decent shot that Wainwright
will earn the award by year’s end, but for now Cueto is the man.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/bCPPPpF.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/bCPPPpF.jpg" height="277" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>American League
Rookie of the Year</b>: Starting Pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
I outlined the case for Tanaka for the Cy Young earlier,
so it should be no surprise that he will take the spot for AL RotY. The only
other contender is Chicago White Sox power slugger Jose Abreu. Abreu is having
a fantastic year, putting up an OPS of .953 and a wOBA of .401<b>. </b>With 25 home runs, Abreu would be the
American League Rookie of the Year in most years, just not this year with
Masahiro Tanaka’s domination. Tanaka has an ERA of 2.10, a K/9 of 9.88, a BB/9
of 1.40, and a HR/9 of 1.01. Like mentioned, those are strong Cy Young award
contender numbers, let alone Rookie of the Year numbers. One point beyond the
numbers is Jose Abreu’s lack of ability to make solid contact with anything
that is not pitched straight/flat into the strikezone. If you pitch to him
slightly out of the strike zone, or even around the edges, you have a good chance
of him not making contact and swinging at the pitch. I do not think Abreu can
make changes quick enough in the second half of the season to correct this, but
in the future it is possible. As for this year, Tanaka has shown little, if
any, weaknesses.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/Rz72Nii.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/Rz72Nii.jpg" height="265" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>National League
Rookie of the Year:</b> Shortstop Chris Owings (Diamondbacks)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Owings is essentially NL Rookie of the Year by default,
as there has not been anyone to really emerge from the pack of rookies in the
National League as we have seen with the American League. Cincinnati Reds
outfielder Billy Hamilton is a close second, with 34 stolen bases. It comes
down to how much you value shortstop over center field, which you should,
shortstop is the more difficult position. Not only does Owings play the tougher
position, but he has the better OPS at .771, wOBA at .336, and wRC+ of 109
compared to Hamilton’s OPS of .717, a wOBA of .315, and a wRC+ of 98. You can
go with Hamilton’s 2.9 fWAR over Owings’ 1.8 fWAR, but I just do not see
Hamilton’s speed value in addition to his bat beating Owings’ bat. At this
point we still have contenders to emerge because this is such a shallow field,
like Kevin Siegrist and Andrew Heaney. There has been so little in the NL
rookie field, that I honestly considered leaving this vacant, but decided to go
with someone, regardless of the strength of the candidates, as someone is going
to win this award. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-44679030129632829102014-06-29T16:24:00.000-05:002014-06-29T16:30:43.588-05:00MLB Power Rankings 6/29/14<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">MLB Power Rankings<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheixuJlqza-aYx4hdNHmiO5rCCPqoEHqHP0I-Y0W9O_wk14uQiNMqLiSNO3QUoaKIlHB385IgGuCn9ZKk0O8XnG-Dd7AMxxI15AfcnQ3xXTaj0Cu26QTuNBPtIaFjsRzT2zTlGdzJnRMqv/s1600/MLB.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheixuJlqza-aYx4hdNHmiO5rCCPqoEHqHP0I-Y0W9O_wk14uQiNMqLiSNO3QUoaKIlHB385IgGuCn9ZKk0O8XnG-Dd7AMxxI15AfcnQ3xXTaj0Cu26QTuNBPtIaFjsRzT2zTlGdzJnRMqv/s1600/MLB.jpg" height="205" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></b></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1. Oakland Athletics –</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Athletics continue to be the kings of
baseball, putting up a run differential of +134, far ahead of the second place
spot (+52 is second). In their last ten, Oakland has been 8-2. They have to be
the favorites heading into the second half of the season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2. Milwaukee Brewers</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– The Brewers have taken a commanding lead in the
National League Central, posting a run differential of +46 and winning eight of
their last ten. They now have a 6.5 game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in
the NL Central and are the first team to reach 50 wins (now at 51). They are
not Oakland, but they are trending up.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">3. Los Angeles Angels</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– After a disappointing season last year, the
Angels are looking like a surefire playoff team, even though they will not win
the American League West (Oakland). They are 8-2 in their past ten games and
have a run differential of +52, second best in the majors. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4. Los Angeles
Dodgers</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– It is only a matter
of time before the Dodgers take the lead in the National League West from all
indications. They are 7-3 in their last ten games and have a run differential
of +48, much better than the division leading San Francisco Giants. They are
unbelievable on the road, posting a road record of 26-16. They are certainly a
team trending upward. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5. Toronto Blue Jays</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– Despite going 4-6 in their last ten games,
the Toronto Blue Jays still possess a 1.5 game lead in a tough division and
still possess a run differential of +34, +25 more than the second place Baltimore
Orioles. A bad week, but with the trade deadline looming, they are gearing up
to seal the deal and win the American League East. I am not going to knock them
down further just yet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">6. Detroit Tigers</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– It seemed like yesterday when the Tigers and
the Royals were neck and neck for the American League Central lead, but the
Detroit Tigers have taken a 4.5 game lead in the division after going 8-2 in
their last ten games. They are +10 in run differential on the Royals, despite
their issues with right field, the bullpen, and Justin Verlander. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">7. Seattle Mariners</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– Why is a team who is 7.5 games out of the
division league at number six? Well, they are playing very good baseball, with
a road record of 23-16. They spent the past ten games going 6-4, putting up a
run differential of +47, which would having them leading a few divisions in
baseball. If the playoffs started today, the Mariners would get a wild card
spot. Taijuan Walker also returns on Monday, so expect him to help the
Mariners, if he is not traded. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">8. San Francisco
Giants</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– The Giants threw a
no-hitter this week, but continue to disappoint, dwindling the lead in their
division to the Dodgers, currently only one game ahead of the Los Angeles club.
They are 3-7 in the past ten games, with a run differential of +32, -16
compared to the Dodgers. Things are going south in San Francisco. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">9. St. Louis Cardinals</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– The Cardinals have been very good as of
late, going 5-5 in their last five games, putting up a run differential of +24.
As for the bad news, they remain 6.5 out of the National League Central lead
and have Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia on the DL with Shelby Miller exiting a
game with back tightness. Wacha and Miller seem like short-term injuries, so it
is hard to point in which direction they are trending.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">10. Kansas City Royals</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– What a disappointment the Royals have been
lately. After winning double digit straight games, they are 3-7 in their last
ten games. Their run differential has shrunk to +11. Royals General Manager
Dayton Moore better make some moves fast or else this team might keep sinking. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">11. Washington
Nationals</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– While the Nationals
are tied for the National League East lead, it is just a matter of time they make
a claim to that crown solely, with a run differential +40 compared to the
Atlanta Braves. Bryce Harper’s rehab is going very well and he should be back
with the team fairly shortly. I would be surprised if they do not have a multi-game
lead in a couple weeks. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">12. Atlanta Braves</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">- The Braves baffle me a bit, as they remain
tied for the National League East lead, going 7-3 in their last ten. Their run
differential, however, is -1. That is not a number you see on a team that will
win a division. Run differential is fairly predictive, so that number would
indicate that the team will falter the NL East lead sooner rather than later.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">13. Baltimore Orioles</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– Good week for Orioles fans, as the team now
trails the Toronto Blue Jays by just 1.5 games, however their run differential
stands at just +9, which would concern me if I were to think the Orioles could
make up ground and win the division. They are 6-4 in their last ten. If only
Dylan Bundy were ready this year, then I would have faith, but I am a doubter
for now.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">14. Cincinnati Reds</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– Things are looking up a bit, Reds fans.
Despite being 7.5 back of the National League Central lead, the Reds had a hot
stretch, going 7-3 in their last ten games. Mesoraco and Votto may keep this
team afloat in a hunt for a NL Wild Card spot, as the Reds possess a run
differential of +18. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">15. Cleveland Indians</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> – Cleveland’s run differential has sunk
to -18, seemingly putting them out of the playoff hunt for now, despite Lonnie
Chisenhall and Michael Brantley performing out of this world. Starting pitching
has been a big problem for the Indians, having only one starter with an ERA+
over 100. They went 4-6 in their last ten games.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">16. New York Yankees</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– Now that the bottom teams of baseball are
showing their true records, this spot has to go to the Yankees, who are two
games out of the American League East lead. They have gone 5-5 over their last
ten games and possess a bad run differential of -29. They can make some moves
in order to take a shot at the division league, but I do not think it can be
done with this roster<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">17. Pittsburgh Pirates</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– The good news: the Pittsburgh Pirates have
been hot over their last ten games going 7-3. The bad news: they have a run
differential of -12 in a tough division. Despite a 41-40 record, they are in
fourth place in the National League Central, and it is hard to see them
overtaking the Reds even, who have a run differential of +18, +30 better than
the Pirates.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">18. New York Mets</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– The Mets?! Yes, the New York Mets have made
the leap on up, despite having an unlikely shot of making the playoffs. They
have been 6-4 over their past ten games, but they have put up a positive run
differential of +2. Maybe they should be buyers at the trade deadline, despite
being six games back.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">19. Miami Marlins</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– The Marlins are two games ahead of the New
York Mets, but they have had a rough week, going 3-7 in their last ten games.
They are allowing an astonishing 355 runs, which is largely on the pitching
staff. They currently have a run differential of -4. They are out of the
playoff hunt and should not make the effort to buy this year, just hold steady
and wait, if anything.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">20. Chicago White Sox</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– A bad 3-7 over their last ten games, the
White Sox are out of it despite Jose Abreu and Chris Sale. Their run
differential currently sits at a bad -35. Why are they ranked this high? Well,
it turns out that there are quite a few bad teams in baseball, some worse than
the White Sox. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">21. Boston Red Sox</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– This is not the year Red Sox fans. The Sox
have been 4-6 over their previous ten games, putting up a run differential of
-36. They are seven games back, which seems like a difficult task, but maybe
Mookie Betts can save them, right? Maybe?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">22. Minnesota Twins</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– Minnesota is in last place in the American
League Central, however their run differential is only -30 and they are nine
games back, which looks like cake compared to some of the other bad teams. They
have gone 4-6 in their last ten games.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">23. Philadelphia
Phillies</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– Philly is 3-7 over
their last ten games with a run differential of -39. They are only seven out of
the National League East lead though!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">24. Texas Rangers</span></b><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– It is time for Rangers General Manager Jon
Daniels to wave the white flag and surrender, as the team is an injury disaster
and will not make the playoffs. They are thirteen games out of the lead, with a
run differential of -56. They put up a bad 2-8 over the past ten games.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">25. Chicago Cubs</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– Still rebuilding, but Arrieta has been good
and Dallas Beeler made a nice debut. While they are 15.5 out of the National
League Central lead, they are only -14 in run differential thanks to Anthony
Rizzo. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">26. Houston Astros</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– Houston is still rebuilding. They are 16 out
of the lead and are 3-7 in their last ten, but their run differential is -54,
+2 better than the Texas Rangers!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">27. Colorado Rockies</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– What happened? The Rockies are eleven games
out of first in the division, going 1-9 in their last ten. Their run
differential is only -20 though. Still, they must be punished for going 1-9 in
their last ten, so they are stuck at 27. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">28. Arizona
Diamondbacks</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– The Diamondbacks
are, of course, bad. Still have to wait another month before the trade deadline
deals that will almost assuredly be done. They have a run differential of -67
and a 5-5 record in their past ten games. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">29. Tampa Bay Rays</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– The Rays are eleven games back with a run
differential of -42. They did however go 6-4 in their last ten. At least they
will have a good pick in the draft and get good assets for David Price. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.6pt;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">30. San Diego Padres</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">– The Padres has scored 240 runs this year, by
far the worst in the majors. They fired their General Manager on Sunday. They
are twelve games back with a run differential of -60. Last stop San Diego.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-57610707757228328252014-06-28T18:42:00.001-05:002014-06-29T13:08:40.067-05:00MLB Prospect Weekly News & Notes (6/28/14)<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">MLB Prospect Weekly News
& Notes</span><span style="font-size: 16pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFEKw9G-LNSUGMFu13P8OpWa7cfg_mQnc3r-veoZ6vF2RcKm9LHbkDFubsPtyCP2WXq5K-5AP_kCJExueCnpUEwwsV6IJlFKQBLMf0kb-3dOu8yjoFkTBjC3nLNf_uIeSpX77wHeseqwQB/s1600/MLB.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFEKw9G-LNSUGMFu13P8OpWa7cfg_mQnc3r-veoZ6vF2RcKm9LHbkDFubsPtyCP2WXq5K-5AP_kCJExueCnpUEwwsV6IJlFKQBLMf0kb-3dOu8yjoFkTBjC3nLNf_uIeSpX77wHeseqwQB/s1600/MLB.jpg" height="164" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- This week has been
mixed for Houston Astros prospects and fans, as starting pitcher Mark Appel has
shown some progression (or regression to the norm), but Carlos Correa fractured
his fibula on a slide into third, keeping him out for the remainder of the
season. Appel has a collective 5.40 ERA over his past two starts, with five
total strikeouts. This may sound horrendous, but when you compare it to his
previous three outings, allowing 17 earned runs in just 6.2 innings pitched, it
is progress, just not as fast as the Astros front office and fans wish. Prior
to his injury, shortstop Correa had an OPS of .926 on the season. Correa was
named to the Futures Game roster, but, of course, will not play. Starting
pitching prospect Mike Foltynewicz struggled on Thursday, giving up four earned
runs in five innings. High-A third baseman Rio Ruiz went ice cold this past
week, posting an OPS of .678 in 33 plate appearances, far below his season OPS
of .817. Although he has not started this week, keep an eye on AA pitching
prospect Kyle Smith, who is posting an 3.78 ERA on the season, displaying good
command, walking only 1.89 batters per nine innings and striking out 9.82
batters per nine innings. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Mookie Betts was called
up to the major league Boston Red Sox today after posting an OPS of .869 in
AAA, with a wOBA north of .400, which is very good. The big issue here is that
some of his value comes from the position he plays, second base. He will be
playing the outfield for the Red Sox, which he can do, and it makes sense to a
degree as the Boston Red Sox outfield has been anemic offensively this year. A ton
of people love Betts bat and it will be interesting to see how he translates in
the next week. AA pitching prospect Henry Owens was selected to the 2014 MLB
Futures Game. This news came out the same day Owens had a rough outing in AA,
giving up four earned runs in six innings pitched. While starting pitcher Cody
Kukuk looked great in A ball, he has since struggled in High-A ball, posting an
8.33 ERA in 35.2 innings pitched. He has been really roughed up in his past two
starts, giving up ten earned runs in 6.1 innings pitched. I would be worried
about Kukuk, as he has been killed in every appearance so far in High-A. Second
baseman Sean Coyle has been impressive in AA this year, putting up an OPS of 1.024.
With Betts movie up, I would expect a call-up to AAA for Coyle anytime.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- The curious case of
Kris Bryant continues in AAA Iowa for the Chicago Cubs, as he has ten hits in
33 at bats, five of them being home runs. Yesterday, Bryant had a three hit
performance, raising his OPS for the week up to 1.427. He still has some
strikeout issues, but seems to be adjusting to AAA pitching, which is a good
sign. Bryant is still playing third base for some reason that is beyond me. Bryant
and teammate Javier Baez were both named to the Futures Game this week. Baez
has had a good week in AAA, posting an OPS of .780, higher than his season
average of .722. He showed some improvement in taking walks/striking out, raising
his walk percentage to 9.7% and lowering his strikeout rate to 29%. While those
still seem disappointing, baby steps with Baez and plate patience. According to
Theo Epstein, president of the Chicago Cubs, the Cubs are trying to “re-program”
the way Jorge Soler’s body moves to prevent future injury. Outfielder Soler
returned to Rookie ball this week, having an OPS of 1.667 in fifteen plate
appearances, which sounds impressive, but if he did not put up those numbers
rehabbing in R ball, it would have been a major disappointment. Cubs AAA second
baseman prospect Arismendy Alcantara had a great night last night, going 4-6
with one home run. Alcantara is putting up an OPS of .890 in AAA in 315 plate
appearances. With major league second baseman Darwin Barney’s struggles on the
season, Alcantara could (and should) be called up before year’s end. Reliever
prospect Zack Cates has been putting up encouraging numbers, with an ERA of
2.89 in 9.1 innings after being promoted to AA. This week has been a rough one
for Cates, putting three earned runs in four innings pitched. Cates gave up no
earned runs prior to this week. Starting pitcher Dallas Beeler was called up
this week and will start Saturday. Hunter Cervenka has quietly been pitching
well in relief in AA, posting an ERA of 2.87 in 31.1 innings pitched. He should
be promoted to AAA soon, but the Cubs front office is conservative on call-ups.
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- On Sunday, Diamondbacks
pitching prospect Braden Shipley had one great day, striking out ten in seven
innings pitched. Reports indicate his changeup and curveball were killer
pitches alongside his easy plus fastball. Yesterday, Shipley could not get it
going, giving up eight earned runs and striking out zero in 3.1 innings
pitched. Although Shipley has an ERA of 4.97 in 29 innings with the High-A
affiliate, he shows flashes of potential, as seen on Sunday. There is some
concern that he is almost 22 ½ years of age and does not have High-A locked
down yet, but he shows enough to keep an eye on him and expect him to develop.
With the fastball, changeup, and curveball, we are looking at three likely plus
pitches at the least. Shipley made the Futures Game roster. Since being
promoted to AAA, starting pitching prospect Archie Bradley has struggled,
putting up an ERA of 5.18 in 24.1 innings pitched. The walk rate of 4.44 in
nine innings pitched is concerning in AAA, especially for the Diamondbacks top
prospect. Since being promoted to AAA, Jake Barrett has been mixed
performance-wise, alternating outings, allowing a home run in one outing, then allowing
no earned runs, then back to a single home run outing, then no earned runs. I
would not consider this bad news as it has been just four innings, so give him
time and he will make the big league club. Another interesting story for the
Diamondbacks farm system has been shortstop Nick Ahmed, who has an OPS of .829
in AAA this year. He has been hot this week, posting an OPS of 1.219 in 37
plate appearances. With Chris Owings and Didi Gregorius already taking up
shortstop spots, it is unclear if they will move Ahmed to a different position,
trade him, or perhaps trade Owings or Gregorius. Now that La Russa is the man
in charge, it is still unclear what this means for the Diamondbacks franchise.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Washington Nationals
starting pitching prospect Lucas Giolito has been one of the success stories for
those who come back after a UCL injury and Tommy John surgery. The nearly
twenty year old Giolito has been a killer in A ball, with a K/9 of 10.04, a
BB/9 of 3.46, and an ERA of 2.30 in 54.2 innings pitched. He dazzled in six
innings on Thursday, striking out nine and giving up no earned runs. He was
named to the Futures Game and will likely be promoted to AA before the end of
the year. Everyone loves him and seems to think he will be a possible ace in
the major leagues before long. Starting pitching prospect A.J. Cole was promoted
to AAA yesterday after posting an ERA of 2.92 in 71 innings pitched. Cole gave
up an astonishing 0.13 HR/9 in AA. AA outfielder was named to the Futures Game
roster after putting up an OPS of .984 in 325 plate appearances. Taylor had
what was a down week for him, posting an OPS of .753 in twenty-eight plate appearances.
If the Washington Nationals can find a spot for him on their big league club,
he might be called up by the end of the year. I would be shocked if he is not
in the majors beginning in 2015.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Top Cleveland Indians
prospect Francisco Lindor was the lone representative on the Futures Game
roster for the Indians. Despite struggling this year with an OPS of .770 in 319
plate appearances, Lindor is still considered one of the top prospects in all
of baseball and the top shortstop prospect in baseball by many. One reason for
this is his BB% and K% compared to someone like Javier Baez. On the year, Lindor
has a BB% of only 11%, but his K% is only 16%. Lindor has developed some pop,
hitting six home runs on the year, beating his home run totals in High-A and AA
last year combined. While it is only been three games, Lindor has had a good
week, putting up an OPS of 1.111. While old at twenty-seven years of age, reliever
Austin Adams has been fairly productive pitching in AAA for the Cleveland
Indians, putting up an ERA of 2.65 in 34 innings pitched. He really could be
called up by the Indians or be used as a trade chip to a team looking to add a
bullpen arm (there are many). Adams has given up one run since May 7, which is
pretty impressive. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Let us talk about
Mariners top prospect Taijuan Walker. Since the last prospect news and notes,
Walker had one start in which he pitched nine innings, striking out eight,
walking one, and giving up no earned runs. After the game, Walker was quoted as
saying he is “back to feeling normal,” which may just be talk, but that mindset
is encouraging, especially with a top prospect like Walker. Walker’s status
with the Mariners organization is up for questioning, with the Mariners
seemingly in on Jeff Samardzija. I do not think it is likely he will be traded,
as he would have been traded for David Price in the offseason if General
Manager Jack Z. wanted to trade him. Perhaps with the team in the playoff hunt
the Mariners finally may make a move and if it is a big one, it will require
Walker. Two prospects for Seattle were named to the Futures Game: outfielder Gabby
Guerrero and third baseman D.J. Peterson. Guerrero being named to the roster is
a bit of surprise, as he has not had the best year, putting up an OPS of .794
in High-A ball. Guerrero has been ice cold this past week, putting up a poor
OPS of .524 in six games. After putting up an OPS of .997 in A ball, D.J.
Peterson was promoted to AA on Tuesday, where he has played two games. He has
had two hits and a walk in nine plate appearances, but that is a sample size
too small to even think about. AA pitching prospect Victor Sanchez did not have
a good week, giving up four earned runs in 6.1 innings in one start and four
earned runs in four innings in the other start. His strikeout numbers were down
for both games to four and two, respectively.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Time for your weekly
Joey Gallo update, Texas Rangers fans. Over the past week, third baseman Gallo
has put up a disappointing (yes, disappointing for him) OPS of .833 with three
home runs. The really bad news is the BB% and the K%. He took no walks this
week and struck out 58.3%. That is seriously concerning, but that is the type
of player Gallo is, a swing for the fences without regard-type. Historically
guys with such poor plate patience do not make it, but Gallo has elite power, probably
the best in the minor leagues (sorry Javier Baez). Rangers outfielder Nick
Williams heated up since making his High-A debut on Tuesday, posting an OPS of
1.218 in 13 appearances before being placed on the seven day DL for an
undisclosed injury. The expensive Jairo Beras had an above average week in A
ball amid a disastrous season. For the year, Beras has posted an OPS of .552,
but has posted an OPS of .750, which is a small sample, but perhaps Beras is
finally trending in the right direction. Seventeen year old starting pitching
prospect Marcos Diplan has quietly been tearing up Rookie ball, putting up an
ERA of 1.52 in 23.2 innings pitched. He has had a relatively tight leash on
innings pitched, often going out for four or five innings, but he strikes out
four, five, or seven in that short amount of time. Diplan is definitely a guy
to keep an eye on. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Baltimore Orioles starting pitching prospect
Dylan Bundy was at one time considered the best pitching prospect in all of
baseball, and even the best overall prospect by some. An UCL injury and Tommy
John surgery derailed that, but since coming back and rehabbing in Low-A ball,
Bundy has looked like his old self. In three starts, he has twenty-two
strikeouts, three walks, and one earned run in fifteen innings pitched. His
fastball has been sitting in the 91-93 mph range. He is still throwing a solid
curveball and his cutter sat between 86-89 in his most recent outing. Dylan
Bundy will be an ace on a major league team in two years. Both the Rays and
Cubs should use Samardzija or Price to try and get him before his prospect hype
gets back into the stratosphere. Outfielder Dariel Alvarez and starting pitcher
Hunter Harvey both were named to the Futures Game roster. Alvarez has been
solid in AA this year, putting up an OPS of .825, but he has only drawn walks
2.5% of the time and is already twenty-five years of age. Nineteen year old
Hunter Harvey has just been a force in A ball with a 2.98 ERA over 66.1 innings
pitched. In his most recent outing on Monday, Harvey struck out seven and gave
up one earned run in six innings pitched. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- AA pitcher Robert
Stephenson was the lone selection for the Cincinnati Reds in the Futures Game.
Stephenson has been mediocre to say the least this year, putting up an ERA of
4.17 in 82 innings pitched. He also has a fairly concerning BB/9 of 4.50. The
past week has been mixed for Stephenson going seven innings, striking out
seven, and only allowing three runs, then going five, striking out five, and allowing
four earned runs. If anything, Stephenson is trending sideways, which has to be
worrying for a top prospect in a club’s farm system. In semi-prospect news, the
Reds signed Raisel Iglesias, a 5’11” Cuban pitcher. His fastball touches 96 and
his breaking ball sits in the 76-81 range via Ben Badler. Some expect him to start, but with the height, I think
it is more likely that he is headed to the bullpen. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Catcher Kevin Plawecki
and starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard were the two selections for the Futures Game
for the New York Mets. Plawecki was promoted to AAA on Thursday after putting
up an OPS of .864 in AA on the year. He has had eight plate appearances in AAA,
so I am going off of a tremendously small sample size in analyzing two games. While
Plawecki’s OPS of .821 in AAA sounds impressive so far, you have to keep in
mind that the Mets AAA club is in the Pacific Coast League where hitters can
put up video game numbers, so that number is about average to above average,
not something to rave over quite yet, especially with a miniscule sample size. On
the other hand, Noah Syndergaard’s ERA of 5.35 in AAA sounds horrible, but it
is a hitter’s league, so I would not put too much stock in either hitters or
pitchers’ numbers in the Pacific Coast League. Since being promoted to AA,
Brandon Nimmo has not set the world on fire offensively, posting an OPS of .714
in thirty plate appearances. Nimmo still displays great plate patience, walking
20% of the time, while striking out only 16.7% of the time. In High-A, Nimmo
was walked 17.9% of the time and struck out 18.3% of the time. Thought Nimmo
might make the Futures Game roster, but he did not.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- The two individuals
named to the Futures Game for the Phillies were shortstop J.P. Crawford and third
baseman Maikel Franco. Crawford was just promoted to High-A ball last week and
has struggled since, putting up an OPS of .686 in 40 plate appearances. In 267
plate appearances in A ball, Crawford put up an OPS of .804. What is especially
concerning with him is his BB% and K%. He gets walked 10% of the time and
strikes out 27.5% of the time in High-A, but then again, small sample size, as
he was literally 1:1 in BB/K in A ball. Franco has spent the entire season in
AAA, but has looked pretty bad, posting an OPS of .596. The past week has not
been kind to him, as he has put up an OPS of .405 in his past seven games. Someone
who made the Futures Game roster last year, pitcher Jesse Biddle, continues to
struggle in AA. On the season, Biddle has an ERA of 5.03 and was given a “mental
break” by Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and is now listed as day-to-day.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- The Colorado Rockies
had one person selected to the Futures Game, SS Rossell Herrera. Herrera has
spent the entire year in High-A ball, putting up a mediocre OPS of .706. He has
only had one game where he has homered the entire year, hitting two home runs,
creating a power surge for the rest of the season for Herrera. High-A catcher William
Swanner has struggled all year in High-A, posting an OPS of .743. He spent all
of last season in High-A and put up very similar numbers, so he is not
progressing like he should. Swanner has been on a hot streak over the past
week, though, putting up an OPS of .919 in seven games. It probably is too
small of a sample size to analyze too seriously, but he is trending in the
right direction. Last year’s third overall pick Jon Gray continues to perform
fairly well, putting up an ERA of 3.77 in 74 innings pitched. Last Friday was
not Gray’s best outing as he was roughed up in five innings pitched, giving up
five earned runs, but striking out seven. He is still performing better than
the pitcher chose two spots ahead of him, Mark Appel. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Marten Gasparini just
turned seventeen and is already playing in Rookie ball for the Kansas City
Royals. The highest paid European free agent ever, Gasparini is putting up an
OPS of .642 in 27 plate appearances. Two points on this. 27 plate appearances
in a career is certainly small sample size. He also just turned seventeen. The
only other seventeen year old more advanced than Gasparini at this point is
Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias. Christian Binford was the lone person named to the
Futures Game roster, putting up an ERA of 2.35 in 76.2 innings pitched in
High-A ball. Binford was hit up in his last start, giving up three earned runs
in 6.2 innings pitched, but striking out six in the process.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- The aforementioned pitching
prospect Julio Urias was named to the Futures Game roster, alongside shortstop Corey
Seager. Urias is seventeen years old and playing well in High-A ball, which is
unbelievable really. In 49.2 inning in High-A, Urias has an ERA of 3.44. He has
a plus fastball and a plus curveball at seventeen. I cannot overemphasize how
impressive this is. Shortstop Corey Seager has spent the entire season in
High-A, putting up an OPS of 1.010, which is also impressive. Seager is likely
to end up at third base, so I am not sure why they are playing with him at
shortstop. The past week has been slightly above average for Seager, putting up
an OPS of 1.096 during the seven game stretch. Joc Pederson was snubbed from
the Futures Game, despite hitting 1.005 in 332 plate appearances in AAA. Pederson
was just placed on the seven day DL for a shoulder injury. All three are a big
part of the Dodgers future plans.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Braves pitcher Lucas
Sims has been good at times in High-A ball, putting up an ERA of 4.71 in 84
innings pitched. On Thursday, Sims had an impressive performance, striking out
six in seven innings, allowing no earned runs.</div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-1685804765888068092014-06-26T14:56:00.005-05:002014-06-26T14:57:05.244-05:00Vanderbilt Takes Home the 2014 College World Series<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Vanderbilt Takes Home the 2014
College World Series</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/d3Ea7GA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/d3Ea7GA.jpg" height="291" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
After getting smoked by Virginia’s offense on Tuesday,
June 24, 2014, The Vanderbilt Commodores came back to win the College World
Series on Wednesday night, two games to one. This is Vanderbilt’s first College
World Series win in school history, despite a notable number of baseball alumni
including Sonny Gray, David Price, and Mark Prior. In the deciding game three,
Vanderbilt starter Carson Fulmer came up big against the dominating Virginia
offense, striking out five and giving up only one earned run in 5.1 innings
pitched. While that may not sound impressive, doing so against a lineup
featuring Mike Papi, Derek Fisher, Joe McCarthy, and John La Prise is really
something to be impressed by. Pitcher Hayden Stone, also of Vanderbilt, pitched
very well, striking out four Virginia batters in 1.2 innings pitched. Adam
Ravenelle kept Virginia scoreless as he closed out the final two innings,
allowing no earned runs. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
This
pitching performance by Vanderbilt has been the constant for the team all,
season, being lead, ironically, by their inconsistent ace Tyler Beede. Beede
pitched game two for the Commodores, giving up six earned runs in 6.2 innings
pitched, striking out only four. The real pitching star of this College World Series
also pitched that night, but for the Virginia Cavaliers. Brandon Waddell
pitched a complete game in game two, striking out five and only allowing one
earned run. This night was lead by hit after hit for the Virginia offense,
producing thirteen hits total, including three by Kenny Towns and three by Joe
McCarthy. Vanderbilt’s real MVP of the series, outfielder John Norwood, had two
hits Tuesday, driving in one run, and scoring the other run himself. Outside of
Norwood, it was all Virginia on Tuesday. Tuesday produced no home runs for
either team.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
Game one
was an offensive nailbiter, as Vanderbilt edged Virginia nine to eight.
Virginia’s ace, Nathan Kirby was roughed up by Vanderbilt’s offense, walking
five and giving up five earned runs in only 2.1 innings pitched. Vanderbilt starter Walker Buehler also disappointed
in the first game of the College World Series, giving up five earned runs in
three innings pitched. Vanderbilt batters only had six hits total on the day,
but seven walks put enough runners on base to win the game. Only Tyler Campbell
had more than one hit, two on the day. Virginia’s biggest threat on offense,
Mike Papi went hitless for the day, also failing to draw a walk, despite messy
pitching. Second baseman Daniel Pinero and shortstop Branden Cogswell both
performed well, having three hits each, with Cogswell drawing one walk. Despite
an offensive battle, game one featured no home runs either.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
The hit
that changed everything and sealed Vanderbilt’s fate as victors in the 2014
College World Series came in game three from John Norwood in the top of the
eighth inning, as he homered off of Virginia reliever Nick Howard, giving
Vanderbilt the go-ahead run, which would be the last run produced in game
three. Norwood made up two of Vanderbilt’s three runs on the day, reaching
second on an error, then scoring on a single by Vince Conde. Perhaps the box
score does not indicate it as well, but game three will go down as an all-time
classic in the books of college baseball, giving us nine innings of tension,
followed by a feeling of celebration unless you were a Virginia Cavaliers fan,
player, or coach.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
Dansby
Swanson, second baseman for the Vanderbilt Commodores, was named the College
World Series Most Outstanding Player. Swanson had three hits and two walks
against the Virginia Cavaliers. </div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-64563501754744919662014-06-26T12:43:00.004-05:002014-06-26T13:16:25.194-05:00Freaky No-Hitters<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Freaky No-Hitters</span><span style="font-size: 16pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/0nj0v0N.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/0nj0v0N.jpg" height="350" width="520" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Yesterday, June 25, 2014, Tim Lincecum of the San
Francisco Giants threw his second career no-hitter, both of which occurred
against the same team, the San Diego Padres, within one calendar year. Only two
pitchers have thrown two no-hitters, have at least two Cy Young Awards, and
have at least two World Series Championships; Sandy Koufax and Lincecum. The
two also have another interesting connection, both were dominant for only a
short period of time, albeit for very different reasons. Koufax pitched twelve
seasons, dominating in the latter half of his career, despite having arthritis problems
that would eventually lead to him retiring at the age of thirty. Many consider
Koufax the greatest pitcher of all-time, if not at least one of the greatest of
all-time. Lincecum, currently thirty, has gone the opposite direction, joining
the Giants in 2007 and having great seasons until 2012. While his 2008 and 2009
Cy Young Award-winning seasons are absolutely dominating (ERA+ of 168 in 2008
and 171 in 2009, with a K/9 over 10 both years), he probably will not be
remembered a tenth as well as Koufax in the future. Koufax was great for six seasons
(and quite possibly the best pitcher in the game during that stretch) and good
for four others. Lincecum was great for two seasons and good for three others. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
While
the obvious objection is Tim Lincecum is only thirty years old, he has been on a
downward trend since 2011, posting not league average seasons, but outright bad
seasons. His ERA+ in 2012 was 68, with an ERA of 5.18 in 186 innings pitched. That
season also saw his walk rate spike, going from 3.6 in 2011 to 4.4 in 2012. At
the time it was considered that it was just a fluke bad season for Lincecum,
but 2013 and 2014 concur with 2012. Lincecum’s ERA+ in 2013 was 78 and is
currently at 77 in 2014 (and that is including his no-hitter yesterday). Keep
in mind that an ERA+ of 100 is league average. So why exactly has Tim Lincecum
thrown two no-hitters in two of his three worst seasons in his career? This may
surprise some, but there is no real objective answer here. Is it just mere
luck? Is nature on his side? Is it the work of God? A no-hitter, or even a
perfect game, does not necessarily indicate anything other than a pitcher had a
very good day and pitched well.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
In 2012,
Phillip Humber threw a perfect game for the Chicago White Sox, striking out
nine in just 96 pitches. That year Humber posted an ERA+ of 66. Humber currently
struggles on the Oakland Athletics AAA team. In 2010, Edwin Jackson threw a
no-hitter for the Arizona Diamondbacks, walking eighth batter, even hitting one
batter with a pitch, but accomplished the feat after 149 pitches. Jackson was
traded to the Chicago White Sox later that season, posting an ERA+ of 82 with
the Arizona Diamondbacks and 95 total for the 2010 season. On Mother’s Day in
2010, Twenty-six year old Dallas Braden of the Oakland Athletics pitched a
perfect game, striking out six in the process of throwing 109 pitches. Braden posted
an ERA+ of 117 that year. Three games into the 2011 season he left with a
shoulder injury and never pitched another inning again. On July 10, 2009,
struggling fifth starter Jonathan Sanchez pitched a no-hitter for the San
Francisco Giants, walking none, making it one of the rare no-hitters where only
an error stopped it from being a perfect game. For that 2009 season, Sanchez
posted an ERA+ of 100, exactly league average. He followed that year up with a
pretty good 2010, posting an ERA+ of 127, allowing a career low 6.6 hits per
nine innings. Sanchez’s 2011 was disappointing prior to his foot injury that
happened mid-season, posting an ERA+ of 82. 2012 and 2013 saw limited innings
for Sanchez because he was just such a poor pitcher, posting an ERA+ of 53 in
2012 and 31 in 2013. He is currently struggling with the Chicago Cubs AAA team.
In his second year in the major leagues, 1999, Eric Milton pitched a no-hitter
for the Minnesota Twins, leading to him having his best career major league
year with an ERA+ of 113. Milton struggled in mediocrity, with a career ERA of 4.99,
until he retired in 2009.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
Of
course, on the flip side of the coin, tons of all-time MLB greats have pitched
no-hitters or perfect games. Randy Johnson, Cy Young, Addie Joss, Nolan Ryan, and
Tom Seaver among the endless list of Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers
who have completed the task. Lincecum is more likely to be grouped in with the
Humber, Braden, and Sanchez, among the many that have thrown no-hitters or
perfect games at this point. His peak was phenomenal, but it was only two seasons.
Randy Johnson had more than two phenomenal seasons. Cy Young had a ton of phenomenal
seasons. Nolan Ryan had a ton of phenomenal seasons. Could Lincecum join that
second group of Hall of Famers still? It is possible, but unlikely. Lincecum is
and has struggled seemingly every other start in the past few seasons. His last
start before the no-hitter had him give up four earned runs in six innings. That
is not a one off thing for Lincecum this season or for 2012 or 2013. He has
clearly lost a step, as he is giving up more walks per nine, less strikeouts
per nine, and more home runs per nine these past few years than he did during
his glory years. Way back in 2008 and 2009, it was talked about how his
delivery would impact the longevity of his career and it appears it has. From
time to time these days, however we do get glimpses of the sure thing that was
Tim Lincecum years ago. These glimpses appear to be nothing more than just
that, glimpses, not signs of recovering into the pitcher he once was. It would
take a herculean improvement in the years to come to be truly compared to whom
many are comparing him to after yesterday’s performance, Sandy Koufax, which is
unlikely. While he may never be that killer arm once again, two no-hitters
against the same team in a calendar year is still a great accomplishment. The
others to accomplish such a feat are Virgil Trucks, Johnny Vander Meer
(no-hitters in back-to-back starts), Allie Reynolds, Nolan Ryan, and Roy
Halladay. A mixed group in terms of overall career trajectory, regardless
Lincecum joined a very rare club Wednesday afternoon. </div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-28557989349678222582014-06-24T17:03:00.001-05:002014-06-25T10:40:45.410-05:00Where Is The Real Justin Verlander?<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Where Is Justin Verlander?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt;"></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu-mHvXIg7ldPfim1oIhkM3_JNFmUsBtPJRoVOiFxX0eIigiDrco6oxH1Wo7EbN9wzKjozfKvfRpghD1TOMW_c8v4kENnccmdqsL-9RDI78GzGTl-zWGsG-ORPxNwWn-zLCYMelrB9E6pP/s1600/Verlander.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu-mHvXIg7ldPfim1oIhkM3_JNFmUsBtPJRoVOiFxX0eIigiDrco6oxH1Wo7EbN9wzKjozfKvfRpghD1TOMW_c8v4kENnccmdqsL-9RDI78GzGTl-zWGsG-ORPxNwWn-zLCYMelrB9E6pP/s1600/Verlander.jpg" height="255" width="450" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
When discussing the faults of the Detroit Tigers this season, many bring
up the bullpen, which undoubtedly plays a part in their failures this season,
or shortstop issues until Eugenio Suarez arrived, but one major factor is
Justin Verlander pitching like a back of the rotation starter. Just three years
ago, Verlander won the American League Cy Young Award and the American League
Most Valuable Player Award, the latter of which has only been accomplished by
twenty-four pitchers in history. During that 2011 season, Verlander posted an
ERA of 2.40, ERA+ of 172, and a SIERA of 2.98. For clarity, SIERA is a modified
form of ERA that takes into account strikeouts and walks among other things
that only the pitcher controls. All three of those statistics are extremely
impressive and justify the awards Verlander received that year (though many
debate the MVP award). Now that we are post the point in the season where one
may waive away small sample size, Verlander has posted an ERA of 4.82 in 104.2
innings pitched, resulting in an ERA+ of 86. Walks per nine are at a career
high (3.6), while strikeouts per nine are at a career low (6.6). What has
exactly happened to Justin Verlander, who was considered the best pitcher in
all of baseball at one point in time?</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
The statistics that begin to put the pieces of the puzzle
together are those just mentioned, walks per nine (BB/9) and strikeouts per
nine (K/9). Strikeouts and walks play a big role in a pitcher’s performance and
are linked to every statistic used to measure their performance (ERA, ERA+,
WHIP, SIERA, etc.) While his 2011 award winning season was his most complete,
Verlander actually achieved his career high in K/9 back in 2009, with 10.1
strikeouts per nine. 2010, another good year for Verlander, saw his K/9 drop
fairly significantly down to 8.8 strikeouts per nine. His MVP and Cy Young
season, 2011, had that number rise to 9.0, so essentially one strikeout per
inning pitched. The following year, 2012, was absolutely identical to 2011, as
he posted a K/9 of 9 once again. 2013 saw a slight tick downward, as his K/9
fell to 8.9. This year, that K/9 number has absolutely cratered to 6.6
strikeouts per nine innings. How exactly does a MVP winning pitcher see his K/9
fall to such lows at the age of 31? Looking at the other side of the coin, walks
per nine have also changed dramatically throughout the years for Verlander. That
2009 season where Verlander posted his best K/9, he gave up 2.4 walks per nine
innings. BB/9 increased a fair amount in the 2010 season, walking 2.8 per nine
innings. In the 2011 MVP season, it dropped down to an amazing 2.0 walks per
nine innings. 2012 saw his BB/9 rise to 2.3, nothing to panic about as it is
still a really good number. 2013 is where the concern grows, as Verlander
posted a BB/9 of 3.1.Verlander’s 2014 BB/9 currently sits at 3.6, his second
highest mark in his career for a season (behind his poor 2008’s 3.9 BB/9). It
should alarm one to see BB/9 increase by 1.6 and K/9 decrease 2.4 in just three
years.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
There are several things you could point to for these
changes. Perhaps the change in the strikeouts per nine is due to a velocity drop.
The following is a line graph looking at Justin Verlander’s maximum average velocity
on his fastball throughout the years.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/5MolugX.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/5MolugX.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/5MolugX.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/5MolugX.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Average Maximum Fastball Velocity over the Course of
His Career</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
There are a few things worth noting on this graph. Verlander’s
maximum fastball velocity on average is at its lowest in 2008 and 2014, his two
worst years statistically, failing to break 100 mph. His most successful
seasons, from 2009 to 2012, show his fastball consistently above 100 mph for
the most part. The two outliers from those years, both below 100 mph on
average, were in October 2009 and March of 2011, where the sample size is 83
and 73 respectively, thus making us able to dismiss those points as small
sample size. At this point, there is mere correlation between maximum fastball
velocity and the poor 2014 season. This leads us to the next point of how often
is he throwing his four-seam fastball now compared to the glory years of 2009
to 2012. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/V9OQkWA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/V9OQkWA.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/V9OQkWA.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/V9OQkWA.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Fastball Usage as a Percentage</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Verlander appears to use the four-seam fastball less and
less since 2009. While it may not appear to be much of a difference, he has
thrown the fastball for 55.21% of his pitches in June, the highest percentage
of fastballs thrown by Verlander this year. The entire year of 2009 saw him
throw his fastball at least 64.94% of the time (July) and as high as 70.85% of
the time (September). In 2010, Verlander broke the 55.21% barrier in four of
the six months pitched. In 2011, he broke that 55.21% barrier in six of eight
months pitched. In the last of his great years, he broke that 55.21% barrier in
five of seven months pitched. His fastball usage as a percentage in the four
months of 2014 pitched is 53.33% in March, 54.08% in April, 53.20% in May, and
55.21% in June. While the usage drop is not as great as expected and not indicative
of Verlander’s issues on its own, it leads one to wonder how much his fastball
was a pitch that struck batters out during that 2009-2012 span, as he it
appears he is getting less people out perhaps with a lesser usage of the now
slower fastball.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/8RWmMoO.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/8RWmMoO.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/8RWmMoO.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/8RWmMoO.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Whiff Percentages for Verlander’s Fastball<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
The above chart looks at Verlander’s fastball’s whiff percentage,
which is exactly what it sounds like, the number of pitches swung and missed on
by the batter expressed as a percentage. One quick note on the graph, the October
2011 point is not a victim of small sample size, as the sample size (number of
pitches thrown and swung and missed on) was 216, which is down from the average
month, but nothing I would label small sample size, just a bit of an outlier.
Another note is that this is just whiff percentages, not based on fastball
usage as a percentage at all. 2009, Verlander’s career year in strikeouts per
nine, produced a dramatic increase in the whiff percentages going from 7.6% of his
fastballs producing swings and misses in 2008 to over 11% of his fastballs
producing swings and misses in 2009. 2010 to 2012 produced slightly less swing
and misses and a slightly lower K/9 rate. 2013 is in line with those previous
seasons, as 10.62% of his fastballs resulted in a swing and miss. Although 2013
was a relatively down season for Verlander, one must remember that his K/9 rate
only dropped from 9.0 in 2012 to 8.9 in 2013, so these whiff percentages on the
fastball are in line with strikeouts per nine innings. His average whiff
percentage on the fastball this season is 6.9%, dramatically down from the
10.62% we saw the previous year. This should lead one to the conclusion that
Verlander has slightly cut back on his fastball, not only due to the drop in
velocity, but also due to the drop in whiff percentages.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
While the fastball is part of the issue regarding the
higher K/9 rate this season, other pitches should be thoroughly investigated,
starting with Verlander’s slider.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/PlQ6neP.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/PlQ6neP.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/PlQ6neP.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/PlQ6neP.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Average Maximum Slider Velocity over the Course of His
Career</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
As you see, Verlander’s slider reached its peak average
maximum velocity, 91.57 mph, in 2009, the year he posted his career record 10.1
strikeouts per nine innings. Since 2010 that slider velocity has been fairly
consistent, even including this year (with the exception of April 2012, which
saw a fairly dramatic dip over a sample size of 50, which is too big to dismiss
as small sample size, as the slider is a secondary pitch). Where the
interesting part comes in is in the usage of the slider as a percentage of the
pitches Verlander throws.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/ah00ha6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/ah00ha6.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/ah00ha6.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/ah00ha6.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Slider Usage as a Percentage<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Verlander’s slider is used about 2.6% of the time he
throws a pitch in 2009 and has been steadily increasing in terms of usage as a
percentage since then. During his MVP season, it topped out as 11.4% of his
pitches in July 2011. The 2012 and 2013 seasons showed a fairly large increase
in its usage, but the 2014 numbers have been off the chart, especially lately. During
the month of June 2014, the slider has made up 21.17% of his pitches, a career
high. It is somewhat baffling why its usage has increased when you look at the
whiff percentages on Verlander’s slider.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/PbUEiPz.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/PbUEiPz.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/PbUEiPz.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/PbUEiPz.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Whiff Percentages for Verlander’s Slider</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Not only has the swing and miss percentage for his slider
not improved, it has actually gotten worse this year, despite its usage
increasing as a percentage of his total pitches. Notice the Y-Axis labeling
ranges from 0 to 100, so minor increases may, in fact, be large changes in
swing and misses. In 2009, roughly 20.5% of the sliders Verlander threw
resulted in a swing in miss. This fell to 16.33% in 2010, then 12.56% in 2011,
followed by 19.43% in 2012, then 17.86% in 2013, so a fairly wide variance throughout
those seasons regarded as good or great. This year, 2014, his slider has a
swing and miss percentage of 10.01%, a career low. One interesting note is
Verlander’s June 2014, as his slider has made up a career high of 21.17% of his
pitches, but has only had a whiff percentage of 5.8%. Why Detroit Tigers
pitching coach Jeff Jones or manager Brad Ausmus has let the high usage of an ineffective
pitch continue is beyond me. Perhaps they think he can work through it, but it
is perplexing to see a massive increase in the pitch being used in terms of a
percentage while making guys swing and miss only 5.8% of the time.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Looking at other pitches, Verlander’s curveball has been
consistent in regards to velocity, usage as a percentage, and whiff
percentages, so nothing noteworthy in regards to his curveball. There is a
slight change in regards to differences in his changeup over the years,
however. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/kCKbpTU.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/kCKbpTU.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/kCKbpTU.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/kCKbpTU.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Average Maximum Changeup Velocity over the Course of
His Career</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/tX0j102.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/tX0j102.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/tX0j102.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/tX0j102.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Changeup Usage as a Percentage<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/izD6eQy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/izD6eQy.png" height="340" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Whiff Percentages for Verlander’s Changeup</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
The first note in the average maximum velocity graph is
Justin Verlander’s changeup in 2009, the year he posted a career high in K/9.
The velocity of his changeup in 2009 is a career low, yet he managed to set the
bar for career K/9. How could this happen exactly? As you see with the second
graph, his changeup was used as a career low in terms of percentage of
changeups thrown, making up an unweighted 9.25%. In 2009, 19.54% of the
changeups Verlander threw resulted in a swing and miss. So despite the velocity
being lower than Verlander’s career average, it did not hurt him as badly due
to a lower usage rate in terms of it making up a percentage of pitches thrown
and a high whiff percentage. Skipping ahead to his 2011 MVP & Cy Young
season, Verlander’s changeup’s velocity increased to a career high 90.16 mph.
That 2011 also resulted in a spike in the changeup being used in terms of the
percentage of pitches thrown, making up 15.96% of the pitches thrown by
Verlander. That year produced a fairly high whiff percentage from his changeup,
resulting in whiff percentage of 23.02%. Both good years regarding the
changeup, but when we leap ahead to this year, 2014, we see a bit of a decline.
Verlander’s overall maximum velocity on his changeup in 2014 is 88.37 mph, the
lowest since the 2009 season where he set his career best K/9. The reason why
it is not as successful in 2014 is due to the higher pitch usage in terms of a
percent, 14%, as compared to 2009, and a massively decreasing whiff percentage,
currently sitting at just 16.18% of changeups being swung and missed on. A
decrease in whiff percentage on the changeup by 6.84% is fairly significant and
is yet another piece in the puzzle that is Justin Verlander’s decline.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Average maximum velocity, pitch usage as a percentage, and
whiff percentages all seem to have a correlation in the fall of Verlander’s
strikeout percentage or K/9. [url=http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/5/8/4313020/predicting-strikeouts-using-velocity-and-whiff]Blake
Murphy[/url] ran regressions using pitchers who threw a qualified amount of
pitches from 2006 to 2012, using strikeout rate as the control, then looked at
several variables, including velocity and whiff percentage. His results find
that whiff percentage has the best link in regards to variance in strikeouts,
either as an overall percentage or K/9.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/pmNpHu4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/pmNpHu4.jpg" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/pmNpHu4.jpg" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/pmNpHu4.jpg" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Comparing Whiff Percentage to Strikeout Rate</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
As thoroughly discussed, Verlander’s whiff percentages
are down across the board, with the exception of his curveball, which has seen
essentially no change from previous seasons in either direction. He also
combines whiff percentage, first strike rate, and fastball velocity and find
that it has a slightly stronger correlation to strikeout rate than just whiff
percentage alone. Correlation is not necessarily causation, but strong bonds
should be noted. Murphy fails to look at the velocity of pitches other than the
fastball, which might help us establish a stronger bond had slider and changeup
velocity been used as variables. One other note regarding Murphy’s results is
the relatively low R<sup>2 </sup>value of fastball velocity, 0.180. While this
does not eliminate a correlation between fastball velocity and strikeout rate
or K/9, it does weaken the claim, even though the common sense (and perhaps
lazy) thing to do would be to notice Verlander’s weaker numbers, including
strikeouts, and also the decreased velocity of his fastball, among his other
pitches and try to make some sort of strong claim just from that alone. The
conclusion for the K/9 drop still comes down to whiff percentage and velocity,
alongside pitch usage as a percentage, as throwing weaker pitches that guys rarely
swing and miss on more frequently result in a drop in strikeouts.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
None of this has addressed another perplexing issue
regarding Verlander, his ever rising walks per nine innings, or BB/9, currently
sitting at 3.6. Let us take a look at release points and strikezone plots for
some of Justin Verlander’s most recent outings in hope that it may give us some
insight into his command and control now, and then compare it to previous
years.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/kacb9YA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/kacb9YA.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/kacb9YA.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/kacb9YA.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Release Point from Last Outing<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/X9PBD5M.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/X9PBD5M.png" height="340" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Where Pitches Landed in Last Outing</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/nVtUMRG.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/nVtUMRG.png" height="340" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Release Point from 6/16/14 Outing<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/ELI9M92.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/ELI9M92.png" height="340" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Where Pitches Landed in 6/16/14 Outing<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/70J5cRy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/70J5cRy.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/70J5cRy.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/70J5cRy.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Release Point from 6/11/14 Outing<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/C8ZpLxK.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/xPr7h8j.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/C8ZpLxK.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/xPr7h8j.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Where Pitches Landed in 6/11/14 Outing</span></i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Only one of these outings can be described as successful,
and that is his most recent outing, the 6/21/14 game against the Cleveland
Indians. The release points in all three outings are not what you see in an ace
pitcher having a good day. Even in the last outing, which can be described as
good by any qualification (Seven innings pitched, eight strikeouts, two earned
runs), the release points are a bit too spread apart, almost in a line
formation, as opposed to a bunching, or what should be as close to a single
release point as possible. It should be noted that he gave up one walk in the
6/21/14 outing, two walks in the 6/16/14 outing, and four walks in the 6/11/14
outing. Now let us look at three games from the 2011 season where he only gave
up two walks per nine innings.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/xPr7h8j.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/xPr7h8j.png" height="340" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Release Point from 9/2/11 Outing<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/tgWgelh.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/tgWgelh.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/tgWgelh.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/tgWgelh.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Where Pitches Landed in 9/2/11 Outing<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/hYrCEmn.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/hYrCEmn.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/hYrCEmn.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/hYrCEmn.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Release Point from 8/6/11 Outing<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/6sPLwrh.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/6sPLwrh.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/6sPLwrh.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/6sPLwrh.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Where Pitches Landed in 8/6/11 Outing<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/0ORnVyU.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/0ORnVyU.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/0ORnVyU.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/0ORnVyU.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Release Point from 6/30/11 Outing<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/iN2ijhj.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="http://i.imgur.com/iN2ijhj.png" border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/iN2ijhj.png" height="340" title="http://i.imgur.com/iN2ijhj.png" width="533" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Where Pitches Landed in 6/30/11 Outing<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Verlander’s 9/2/11 outing resulted in one walk, the
8/6/11 outing resulted in two walks, and the 6/30/11 outing resulted in two
walks. I chose the dates as ones that just looked average for his 2011 season,
picking no games where Verlander walked zero or where he walked four, the most
in a single game that season. The differences in the release points between the
year 2011 and 2014 should be pretty apparently, as in 2014 pitches are no
longer bunched together in a circle when released, which you would see from
most staff aces, but now are released in varying positions in a diagonal motion.
There are other things in pitch mechanics I will not go into in this article,
but the release point of a pitcher should be somewhat consistent, not what we
have seen in Verlander’s last three outings in 2014. In regards to the
strikezone plot, or where the pitches landed, Verlander’s command is not quite
as good, but there is not much of a difference there. The 6/11/14 game plot has
a tremendous number of called balls, but then again, the 6/30/11 plot also
features a similar amount of called balls. So far evidence does not really show
much of a change in command, but one may point out the small sample size of
just three games from two different seasons, which is valid as time prohibits
me from posting every graph from both seasons, if not all seasons in his career
and analyzing them. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2094266-whats-causing-justin-verlanders-fall-from-ace-power-pitcher-to-barry-zito">Zachary D. Rymer</a> points out an interesting statistic regarding Verlander’s
fastball control. In 2009, his K/9 record year, 22% of his fastballs were in
the strikezone. His 2011 MVP season had 15.2% of the fastballs in the
strikezone. This spiked to 23% in 2013, followed by a massive drop of only
12.7% of Verlander’s fastballs being in the strikezone. That should be
concerning to Verlander, the Detroit Tigers, and fans. So far this year,
Verlander has only had <a href="http://baseballsavant.com/popup/breakdown.php?hfPT=sl|&hfZ=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=3|5|19|&hfAB=&pid=Array&hfBB=&hfHL=&hfCount=&ddlYear=2014&ddlPlayer=pitcher&ddlMin=0&ddlPitcherHand=&ddlBatterHand=&ddlVGT=&ddlVLT=&ddlDistGT=&ddlDistLT=&txtGameDateGT=&txtGameDateLT=&ddlTeam=&ddlPosition=&hfRO=&ddlHomeRoad=&hfIN=&hfOT=&ddlGroupBy=name&ddlSort=desc&ddlMinABs=0&ddlSBSuccess=&txtPx1=&txtPx2=&txtPz1=&txtPz2=&ddlRPXGT_ft=&ddlRPXGT_in=&ddlRPXLT_ft=&ddlRPXLT_in=&ddlRPYGT_ft=&ddlRPYGT_in=&ddlRPYLT_ft=&ddlRPYLT_in=&txtBAGT=&txtBALT=&txtBLGT=&txtBLLT=&txtSRGT=&txtSRLT=&txtSDGT=&txtSDLT=&player_id=434378&">58 called strikes or swings and misses on his slider.</a> Similarly, <a href="http://baseballsavant.com/popup/breakdown.php?hfPT=ch|&hfZ=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=3|5|19|&hfAB=&pid=Array&hfBB=&hfHL=&hfCount=&ddlYear=2014&ddlPlayer=pitcher&ddlMin=0&ddlPitcherHand=&ddlBatterHand=&ddlVGT=&ddlVLT=&ddlDistGT=&ddlDistLT=&txtGameDateGT=&txtGameDateLT=&ddlTeam=&ddlPosition=&hfRO=&ddlHomeRoad=&hfIN=&hfOT=&ddlGroupBy=name&ddlSort=desc&ddlMinABs=0&ddlSBSuccess=&txtPx1=&txtPx2=&txtPz1=&txtPz2=&ddlRPXGT_ft=&ddlRPXGT_in=&ddlRPXLT_ft=&ddlRPXLT_in=&ddlRPYGT_ft=&ddlRPYGT_in=&ddlRPYLT_ft=&ddlRPYLT_in=&txtBAGT=&txtBALT=&txtBLGT=&txtBLLT=&txtSRGT=&txtSRLT=&txtSDGT=&txtSDLT=&player_id=434378&">only 135 changeups this year have resulted in a called strike or a swing and miss.</a> So while I may not be able to explain exactly why Verlander is
walking so many people, he is and the numbers indicate a concerningly small
percentage of fastballs, sliders, and changeups are either called strikes or
swinging and missing strikes (the latter of which goes back to the whiff
percentage).</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
Going
back to the beginning, we are reminded that is having a bad year, with an ERA
of 4.82, 68<sup>th</sup> among qualified pitchers, behind the likes of Edinson
Volquez, Travis Wood, and Jorge de la Rosa. This is not a knock on these
pitchers, but rather the type of pitcher who he should be compared to. A 4/5-type
starter in an above average rotation is what Verlander is performing like this
year. Verlander’s <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-short-and-simple-siera-primer/">SIERA</a>,
also known as Skill-Interactive ERA, this year is 4.52, the highest it has been
since his first full season in Major League Baseball. It has a similar scale
system to ERA, so a 4.52 is pretty bad. It also indicates that his ERA or
performance this year is not unlucky, but in line with his skill this season. That
statistic alone indicates nothing beyond this year, just this year. As for what
Verlander’s future as a starting pitcher in MLB is I am not sure. He could make
mechanical changes, leading to higher velocity and an increased whiff rate,
which would help him out tremendously.Just this month, Justin Verlander was quoted as saying <a href="https://twitter.com/GeorgeSipple/statuses/476939519699480576">“My fastball velocity,I'm not seeing a hundred, but it's sitting as high as it ever has....the stuff's there.”</a> That has to worry fans of Verlander or the Tigers organization
that he sees nothing wrong, when there are quite a number of red flags as I have
pointed out and “the stuff” does not appear to be there anymore, or at least
this season. The question of can Verlander rebound is one that is difficult to answer. For every great pitcher that has dropped off abnormally young, like Verlander, they are often accompanied by injuries. Dwight Gooden is perhaps similar, having such a sudden drop-off, but that may be attributed to his drug usage. Rick Ankiel just fell apart overnight, but he was not a great pitcher like Verlander. Perhaps age thirty-one is where Verlander's arm had enough innings and is showing some serious troubles. Perhaps it is just a bad season and he will rebound. At this point in time, it is too hard to say.<br />
<br /></div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-65697437453011525122014-06-24T13:21:00.002-05:002014-06-24T13:21:42.837-05:00Jeff Samardzija Does What Johnny Cueto Cannot<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyJYB4zLQroH7-csGB_fGhmMTbyTzaXmW66KSJvdMNEqsl1s7yZ7GvQvWR2CFv2NFLxuau9wSlFhlNWQpimzIj04luZlnBA5UWXihTYhELm_l9VmMlJLvELEbXhsLiiBcw9n65Vy8y8czy/s1600/782277980117012809.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyJYB4zLQroH7-csGB_fGhmMTbyTzaXmW66KSJvdMNEqsl1s7yZ7GvQvWR2CFv2NFLxuau9wSlFhlNWQpimzIj04luZlnBA5UWXihTYhELm_l9VmMlJLvELEbXhsLiiBcw9n65Vy8y8czy/s1600/782277980117012809.gif" height="223" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Courtesy of Deadspin</span>Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-85852734579527263342014-06-21T17:24:00.000-05:002014-06-21T17:24:23.726-05:006/21/14 Minor League News & Notes for the Week<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">6/21/14 Minor League News
& Notes for the Week<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/jbZnn4X.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/jbZnn4X.jpg" height="290" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- It has been a very
newsworthy week for Chicago Cubs prospects, as Kris Bryant joined the AAA Iowa
Cubs on Thursday, already hitting one home run in just eight plate appearances
thus far. This resulted in the Cubs demoting third baseman Christian Villanueva
down to AA, as he is blocked by Olt at the big league level, Bryant in AAA now,
and had a weak on base percentage of .283. 2014 fourth overall pick Kyle
Schwarber was promoted from Short-Season-A Ball to Low-A Ball in Kane County
after hitting four home runs in 24 plate appearances. This is about what was
expected of Schwarber being a polished college power bat in the Northwest
League. Third baseman Jeimer Candelario was demoted from High-A Ball to Low-A Ball
in Kane County. In 244 plate appearances, Candelario had an on base percentage
of just .270.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Two notes on Red Sox
prospects this week, as Mookie Betts continued to prove that he has big
league-caliber stuff, posting an OPS of 1.054 over the past week, and an OPS of
.888 on the season in AAA Pawtucket. Betts plays second base, so he is
currently blocked by Pedroia, but his bat could play in the outfield. Top
pitching prospect Henry Owens has been tearing up AA this season, posting an
ERA of 1.99 after 86 innings pitched. Owens had a quality start Friday night,
throwing seven innings, walking two, striking out eight, and allowing no earned
runs.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Twenty year old Twins
prospect Jose Berrios posted a great start in High-A Ball, striking out nine in
seven innings, walking only two, and allowing no earned runs. Berrios currently
has an ERA of 2.09 after 77.1 innings pitched. He is almost certain to be
promoted to AA later this year. Arguably the top prospect in all of baseball,
Byron Buxton, has yet to return after a wrist injury. Kohl Stewart had a short
start last Saturday, pitching only four innings, striking out three and
allowing no earned runs. This short start was due to the MWL All-Star Game that
Stewart wanted to pitch in. He has an ERA of 2.44 in 59 innings pitched in
High-A Ball. AAA pitcher Trevor May has been great since being acquired,
posting an ERA of 2.77 in 74.2 innings pitched. In his last start, on Monday,
May pitched 8.1 innings, striking out eleven, walking two, and only one earned
run. I would be shocked if he is not called up to the Twins soon.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Miami Marlins top
prospect Andrew Heaney made his major league debut on Thursday against the
Mets, giving up only one run, a home run to David Wright, in six innings
pitched. Third baseman Colin Moran struggled this week, having only one hit in
sixteen plate appearances while in High-A Ball. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Mets enigma Travis
d'Arnaud spent the past week tearing up AAA Las Vegas, posting an OPS of 1.400
in 35 plate appearances with four homers. Although he looked like a deer in
headlights during his stint with the Mets this year, expect him to be called up
relatively soon, especially if he keeps putting up great numbers, despite being
in player friendly Las Vegas. On Wednesday, outfielder Brandon Nimmo was promoted
to AA after posting an OBP of .448 in High-A. He has had one hit in nine plate appearances,
which is meaningless due to the sample size.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Future Mariners ace
Taijuan Walker had a mixed week in two starts. Last Saturday he pitched 6.2
innings, giving up one run and striking out seven. He followed that performance
by pitching five innings on Thursday night, giving up three earned runs, two of
which were home runs, and striking out only four. Walker has had his struggles
this year in AAA, posting an ERA of 4.57 in 21.2 innings pitched. Other top
Mariners prospect D.J. Peterson has been killing it this past week, posting an
OPS of 1.744 in four games in High-A, and an OPS of .975 in 285 plate appearances.
High-A pitcher Dylan Unsworth has had a disappointing season, posting a 6.46
ERA, but pitched a great game yesterday, pitching seven innings, striking out
twelve, walking zero, and allowing zero earned runs. Unsworth has really
struggled in High-A, so perhaps this is the start to him adjusting to advanced
batters somewhat.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- White Sox top prospect Matt Davidson continues
to show how weak the White Sox’s prospect depth is, as he has put up a good OPS
of .758 in 28 plate appearances over the past week, considerably higher than
the .633 OPS he has put up through 266 plate appearances this year. AAA
shortstop Carlos Sanchez put up an OPS of .987 over the past week, a large rise
from the .791 he has posted on the season. With Alexei Ramirez having an above
average season for the White Sox, Sanchez will probably remain in AAA for the foreseeable
future. Starting pitching prospect Francellis Montas has been gold in High-A,
posting an ERA of 1.76 in 51 innings pitched. Montas had a rough outing this past
week, allowing four earned runs and five walks in seven innings pitched. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- In Kansas City Royals
news, Kyle Zimmer remains out due to a back muscle injury for a few more weeks.
There has to be some concern regarding his long-term health. Shortstop prospect
Raul Mondesi returned from injury yesterday to join the High-A team, going
hitless for the day. Sean Manaea has been having such a strange year in High-A,
posting an ERA of 4.89, but striking out 12.32 batters per nine innings. He had
a good short outing Saturday, being pulled after four innings, presumably for
the all-star game. Yesterday, in five innings, Manaea struck out six, walked
two, and allowed three earned runs. His fellow High-A starter Christian Binford
has had a great season, posting a 2.19 ERA in 70 innings pitched. In his last
start one week ago, Binford pitched six innings, striking out five, walking
none, and allowing no earned runs. Binford is likely headed to AA sooner than
later.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Over the past week, top
Yankees prospect, catcher Gary Sanchez has shown some improvement, posting an
OPS of .824 for the week, an increase from his season long OPS of .748 in 246
plate appearances. Outfielder Aaron Judge was promoted to High-A Tampa this
week after posting an OPS of .958 in 278 plate appearances in Low-A ball. Reliever
Jose Ramirez was called up to the big league club and has been struggling,
posting a 6.75 ERA in 5.1 innings in relief.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Likely trade piece and
Blue Jays starting pitcher prospect Aaron Sanchez was promoted to AAA about a
week ago and has struggled in two outings, posting an ERA of 6.00 in nine
innings pitched. As far as his trade value, his slight struggles in AAA
probably eliminate the Blue Jays from the Samardzija or Price contests. Pitcher
Daniel Norris made his first start in AA on Wednesday, striking out nine, but
allowing four hits and four earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched. Norris has been
gold in High-A ball this year, posting and ERA of 1.22 in 66.1 innings pitched.
John Stilson has been very productive as a reliever in AAA this season, posting
an ERA of 3.00 in thirty innings pitched. Not quite sure why he has not been
called up to the Blue Jays bullpen.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Although San Francisco Giants
prospect Kyle Crick has a 3.88 ERA in 48.2 innings pitched in AA, he’s been
really inconsistent lately, giving up four runs, then one run, then zero, then
four, then one, then one, then four. I think he has had some command issues
that inflate his walks and his ERA lately, which hopefully can be fixed. Andrew
Susac is an interesting case, as he has put up an OPS of .815 for the year in
AAA, but has been ice cold for the past week. He did suffer a concussion
earlier in the year, so I am not sure if he is completely over it. Sometimes
guys like Justin Morneau just struggle to recover. Regardless, he is blocked at
the major league level by Posey, but could very well end up as the backup
catcher by the end of the year for the San Francisco Giants. About a week ago
relief pitching prospect Derek Law was diagnosed with a torn UCL and will most
likely undergo Tommy John surgery, although he has yet to as of press time.
Second baseman and shortstop Joe Panik has been called up by the Giants and
will join the team tonight against the Diamondbacks.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Top Arizona
Diamondbacks prospect Archie Bradley who was shut down with arm strain a while
ago, threw three innings of a rookie-league game on Monday. They are taking it
slow with him. Third baseman prospect Jake Lamb has been tearing up AA, posting
an OPS of .981 in 286 innings. This past week, he has posted an OPS of 1.015.
There is no reason he should not be called up to AAA at this point. Reliever
Jake Barrett was promoted to AAA where he has been mixed in two starts, giving
up one run in a one inning performance and no runs in another one inning
performance. He posted an ERA of 2.39 in 26.1 innings pitched in AA, so he
should adjust with time.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Rangers third baseman
prospect Joey Gallo has been in AA for two weeks and has an OPS of 1.109, down
from his OPS of 1.199 in High-A ball. I would not be shocked if he finished the
season in AAA, which would be especially impressive given that he is only
twenty years of age. Outfielder Nick Williams from a seven day DL stint yesterday,
hitting one single in five plate appearances in his return in rookie ball. Nineteen
year old second baseman prospect Travis Demeritte has played well in Low-A
ball, posting an OPS of .854, but has chilled off posting an OPS of only .784
over the past week.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Pirates top prospect
Gregory Polanco was called up roughly a week and a half ago, posting an OPS of .864
in 53 plate appearances with the big league club. Pitching prospect Tyler
Glasnow has absolutely been on a tear in High-A ball, posting an ERA of 1.71
and K/9 of 10.60 in 52.2 innings pitched. Glasnow has a shutout streak of 21.1
innings pitched currently. He really should be promoted to AA soon. Pitcher
Nick Kingham was promoted to AAA Friday, where he pitched a seven inning, eight
strikeout, no earned runs gem. On Wednesday, Kingham pitched seven innings,
allowing only one run, walking zero. The Pirates could probably call Kingham up
to the bullpen, but they would be best served letting him develop the rest of
the year in AAA.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- It has been a real
bummer for the Houston Astros when it comes to starting pitcher prospect Mark
Appel. In 17.1 innings pitched for the High-A ball club, Appel has an ERA of
11.94. This guy was at one time considered the most major league ready pitcher
in his draft class and now it is likely he will be sent down to Low-A ball. Domingo
Santana has performed well at the AAA level, posting of .867 in 332 plate appearances
for the season. As of late he has been on a tear, posting an OPS of 1.119 in 39
plate appearances. No idea if he is going to be a late season callup or if they
will wait until next year. Low-A pitching prospect Michael Feliz has been
impressive as of late, not allowing an earned run in 22.1 straight innings. Feliz
has an ERA of 2.68 in 43.2 innings pitched on the year. Outfielder prospect Teoscar
Hernandez has been unbelievably good this year in High-A, posting an OPS of .927
in 305 plate appearances, but over the past week, he has had a bit of a cold
streak, only hitting for a .154 average. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
- Top Baltimore Orioles
pitching prospect Dylan Bundy made his return after Tommy John surgery in Low-A
ball, pitching five innings on Sunday and striking out six, while allowing no
walks. Ton of realistic potential is still there in Bundy. Another pitching prospect,
Hunter Harvey, has been good in 60.1 innings pitched, posting an ERA of 3.13
over the course of the season. His last two starts on June 4 and June 10 in
Low-A ball have proven to be problematic, posting a cumulative ERA of 14.85 for
those two starts in 6.2 innings pitched. Orioles top catching prospect Michael
Ohlman has really struggled this season, posting an OPS of .678 in 237 plate
appearances in AA. Over the past week things have been looking up with him
posting an OPS of .935 in 25 plate appearances. </div>
<div style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; padding: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
More teams and prospects
will be covered later in the week</div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<i>Beisbol’s Blog</i> </div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-79558669847652573072014-06-20T20:43:00.002-05:002014-06-20T21:22:12.070-05:00All 15 Strikeouts in Clayton Kershaw's No-Hitter<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjep315-lMevWlW7KU7ifZruGljOzKencrAHBRKPGSnaGC7rnvJjgYI8nylke5IQPlt67UDyHRoRLGivQOHifAvOAw5MAVviAGjzvi-vCnhA2VEv-pyjm_uZumTz9IP0BDGGpi_-Rjftglw/s1600/All15Ks.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjep315-lMevWlW7KU7ifZruGljOzKencrAHBRKPGSnaGC7rnvJjgYI8nylke5IQPlt67UDyHRoRLGivQOHifAvOAw5MAVviAGjzvi-vCnhA2VEv-pyjm_uZumTz9IP0BDGGpi_-Rjftglw/s1600/All15Ks.gif" height="224" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>C/O Deadspin</i></span></div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-29629715638008052642014-06-20T15:32:00.000-05:002014-06-20T21:22:02.352-05:00What to Make of Miami Marlin Andrew Heaney So Far<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What to Make of Miami Marlin
Andrew Heaney So Far<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/Zh0YBXb.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/Zh0YBXb.jpg" height="285" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Last night, June 19, 2014, starting pitcher Andrew Heaney
made his major league debut with the Miami Marlins, pitching six innings,
allowing four hits, one of which was a home run and the only run scored against
Heaney and one walk. Heaney’s thunder was taken away by Zack Wheeler who
pitched his first complete game shutout, in which he struck out eight. Make no
mistake, Wheeler was the better pitcher last night, but I am not in the camp
that he will be the better pitcher in the long-run. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
Left-handed
pitcher Andrew Heaney is the number one prospect for the Miami Marlins in a
relatively deep farm system. Heaney, originally drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays
out of high school, opted to attend college at Oklahoma State University, where
he was drafted as the ninth overall pick by the Miami Marlins in 2012, after
his junior season. He showed massive improvement during his junior season, in
which he had a K/9 ratio of 10.65, up from 6.85, which he posted during his
sophomore season. He also saw his BB/9 ratio drop from 3.09 to 1.67 from his
sophomore to junior season at Oklahoma State University. He led the Big 12 in
strikeouts in 2012, throwing 140 strikeouts. After being drafted, Heaney
struggled slightly in Rookie/Low-A ball, posting a 4.95 ERA with Low-A ball team,
the Greenville Grasshoppers. Prior to his first full minor league season in
2013, Heaney was ranked 43<sup>rd</sup> by Baseball America and 81<sup>st</sup>
by MLB.com. He exceeded those and all expectations, posting a 0.88 ERA in 61.2
innings pitched in High-A ball, then a 2.94 ERA in 33.2 innings pitched for AA Jacksonville
Suns.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
Coming
into the 2014 season, Heaney’s stock skyrocketed, being declared the 30<sup>th</sup>
best prospect by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus and the 29<sup>th</sup>
best prospect. He was widely agreed as the best Miami Marlins prospect after
Jose Fernandez and Jake Marisnick were called up. Containing to pitch for the
Jacksonville Suns, Heaney posted a 2.35 ERA in 53.2 innings pitched. Before his
callup this past week, Heaney pitched 23 innings in AAA with an ERA of 2.74,
with a 10.6 K/9. While numbers only tell part of the story when evaluating a prospect
and how successful they will be in Major League Baseball, pitchers who struggle
in the minors rarely work out in the majors. This is not relevant to Andrew
Heaney as he played well in the minor leagues by any possible definition. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
Heaney’s
fastball, which were the majority of his pitches last night, sits at about
91-93, hitting 95 frequently, and topping out at 97. Although scouts describe his
fastball as a plus due to the movement of the pitch, batters tend to make
enough contact with it to be concerned at times. I am trying not to put too
much judgment into the one game last night, where a considerable amount of
contact was made off of Heaney’s fastball, but it is tempting to look at it at
make a judgment. His slider/sinker is his best pitch (easy plus pitch), but
only made up 17.6% of the 91 pitches Heaney threw. 64.4% of those slider/sinker
pitches that he threw were called strikes. His curveball is about league
average and could develop into above league average. Heaney showed a lack of
confidence in the curveball, throwing it only 1.1% of the time in last night’s
game. It is probably his weakest secondary pitch at this time, so slowly
increasing the amount of times he throws it throughout the season is not a bad idea.
Heaney has an above average changeup which induced some swing and misses by
batters. His changeup maxed out at 83.5 and induced a good amount of groundballs.
To paint a better picture of Andrew Heaney’s night against the New York Mets,
let us take a look at the PitchF/X plot. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/Rn6jVAd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/Rn6jVAd.png" height="263" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i>Where the ball was
when it left his hand<o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/0X1z0hS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/0X1z0hS.png" height="263" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i>Where the ball was
when it reached the plate</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Heaney is described as having plus control, which the
first graphic affirms, but the second graphic shows issues with command. Like
stated, a number of his pitches have movement, often appearing erratic at
times. I would not worry about it yet, it is one start and this is the only
PitchF/X data we have to go off of. It could be nerves, as it is his first
major league start. If the erratic command is there for a full season, it is
worth discussing, but it is just an interesting thing to point out for now. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/ZG37dFn.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/ZG37dFn.png" height="265" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i>Pitch speed<o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
For
completeness, I wanted to post the speed of each pitch Andrew Heaney threw
throughout the game and it is normal. You see the drop-offs for secondary
pitches and a slightly decrease in fastball velocity after 90 pitches. About
average stuff you would see in most pitchers.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Where
does Andrew Heaney end up? Most sites like Baseball America, Baseball
Prospectus, and MLB.com predict him as a 2/3 starter on the Marlins, which
seems likely to me. I am not reaching this conclusion from his first outing
against the New York Mets, but rather the success he has shown at the minor
league level. He did not dominate minor league ball like an ace would, but pitched
very well at the lower league level and has two plus pitches and two pitches
that are going to end up above average. That easily fits the profile of a 2/3
starter on a winning team. When Jose Fernandez returns, the Marlins may have
one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, with both Fernandez and Heaney.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/?content_id=33865647&c_id=mlb&topic_id=vtp_top_50">Clips from Heaney's MLB Debut with the Miami Marlins</a><br />
<br /></div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-6973744881624071222014-06-20T11:00:00.000-05:002014-06-20T21:22:12.066-05:00Kershaw Dialed In With Two Outs Remaining<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dyholBRIq1HK-0ajAbBxNZ4Vz7PRdZG7x64vcNFFQ1JU7T_Z30SBEyqUUwj356S6WVtEjL8jcLTQMRSXrPz_Q' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<br />Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-80742725297345381532014-06-20T10:32:00.001-05:002014-06-20T21:22:17.166-05:00Matt Joyce Hits A Ball Back Into The Machine<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dyL1w1ikcgXZ-COB0jIH1WfSjFT4NBTu29aeNJQw4BfrK257WK-bIiuVJw3rTEpa3mFD--VwMLP4mHzYGZghQ' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<br />Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-59465330869273282462014-06-19T13:02:00.000-05:002014-06-19T20:09:56.677-05:00Did Clayton Kershaw Throw The Greatest Game Ever?<div align="center" class="separator" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 18pt;">Did Clayton
Kershaw Throw The Greatest Game Ever?</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="separator" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 18pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAL4k6_ReMLcDzce3m1mQ2Es2dIEfry6fVolA-AqnJqYEKFe6z5p8BgNzhVUVvXvfwa5eSnGQbFL7yL7YREHoR88qh-p86cCW1X1lqHTILGVun_vwYVfAq7dBeH3wBn300R0RcK5DzYiu_/s1600/AP_KERSHAW2_140619_d_4x3_992.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAL4k6_ReMLcDzce3m1mQ2Es2dIEfry6fVolA-AqnJqYEKFe6z5p8BgNzhVUVvXvfwa5eSnGQbFL7yL7YREHoR88qh-p86cCW1X1lqHTILGVun_vwYVfAq7dBeH3wBn300R0RcK5DzYiu_/s1600/AP_KERSHAW2_140619_d_4x3_992.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="separator" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw had the best
game yet in his seven year career Wednesday night, June 18, 2014. In nine
innings, Kershaw threw fifteen strikeouts and walked zero over the course of
nine innings. It would have been a perfect game had Dodgers shortstop Hanley
Ramirez not made a throwing error. While I understand the traditional importance
of no-hitters and perfect games, the error proves how meaningless the terms are
outside of being cool moments. When evaluating a pitcher, one should look at
everything the pitcher can control and as little else as possible. Hanley
Ramirez’s error does not change everything Clayton Kershaw did. Kershaw could
not control that error. By this logic, the ideal greatest game error would be
twenty-seven strikeouts with zero walks, but the odds of that game occurring
are very slim. This type of idea leads back to the old game score system
created by Bill James.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Basically, game score adds points for each out recorded,
each strikeout, and each inning after four innings, while subtracting for each
hit, each earned run, each unearned run, and each walk. Each pitcher starts out
with fifty points and then the additions and subtractions are then carried out
as the game progresses. For a more detailed explanation, just check out the Fangraphs
or Wikipedia pages on how to calculate a score in-depth. It is an old and
relatively rudimentary system, but one that I find fair to pitchers. The system
has a maximum/best possible score of 114, something that has never and will
never likely be achieved. Clayton Kershaw’s game score last night was 102, the
second highest recorded score in history (for fairness purposes I am excluding
outliers who pitched more than nine innings, such as Joe Oeschger 26 inning
performance). This illustrates what a magnificent performance it truly was. There
have been twenty-three perfect games in the history of Major League Baseball
and Kershaw’s no-hitter was better than each and every one of them. If you are
wondering how that is possible, it basically boils down to strikeouts. Mark
Buehrle and Dallas Braden only had six strikeouts in their perfect games, with
the remaining outs either being ground outs or flyball outs. When it comes to
measuring pitcher performance, not all outs are created equally, as the pitcher
should try and eliminate the need for the field to make a play to get an out,
going back to the best hypothetical game is the twenty-seven strikeout game.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
If we were just discussing good or great games, I would
not be as concerned with walks, but when you are attempting to measure all-time
great games, walks become a big concern, as they leave a runner on base with
the pitcher unable to change that fact by themselves (unless the runner is
picked off the bag). That lone walked man on base could eventually score in a
no-hitter after a few flyballs to the outfield, allow the score of the game to
change, which is why walks are measured in these types of all-time great performances.
Just as the goal of a batter is to get on base, the goal of a pitcher is to
ensure runners do not get on base. At the risk of being repetitive, when the
ball is hit it is up to the fielder to ensure the runner does not get on base,
whereas a strikeout is the pitcher himself ensuring that the runner does not
get on base.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
The greatest game ever pitched happened May 6, 1998, as
Kerry Wood posted a game score of 105, the closest to perfect ever recorded in
major league history. Unlike Kershaw’s no-hitter or the twenty three perfect
games, Wood did allow one infield single to Ricky Gutiérrez, which fans argue
to this very day that the hit should’ve been an error charged on Kevin Orie
(and there is a good case there for that). Wood struck out twenty, allowing no
walks in the process, during his demolition of the Houston Astros. This brings
up one big imperfection with game score, it does not take into account the team
the player pitched against. Numerous perfect games and no-hitters were pitched
against Tampa Bay Rays teams that finished with poor records. Clayton Kershaw
pitched against the 2014 Colorado Rockies, who have a slightly above average
league offense. Troy Tulowitzki is having an insane season, especially at home,
posting an OPS+ of 184, which makes him the frontrunner for National League
Most Valuable Player so far. His OPS+ is likely to drop some as the season
progresses, but we are at a point where it is no longer small sample size,
rather Tulowtizki having an all-time great season for a shortstop. While
Kershaw failed to strikeout Tulowitzki, Tulowitzki failed to reach base on a
hit or walk. Outside of Tulowitzki, Morneau and Blackmon are having good
seasons, but the rest of the lineup is average to say the least. The 1998
Houston Astros won 102 games, having five players with an OPS+ over 120, two of
which were Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. Wood struck out Craig Biggio once,
Moises Alou three times, Jeff Bagwell three times, and Derek Bell twice among
the other Astros batters. Wood faced tougher competition and struck them out
more often, while allowing the same amount of walks Kershaw did, zero.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
Three games closely follow Kershaw’s game score of 102:
Matt Cain’s perfect game, one of Nolan Ryan’s no-hitters, and Sandy Koufax’s
perfect game. All three games received a game score of 101. Ryan’s game and
Koufax’s game both faced similarly-level talent as Kershaw’s no-hitter, while
Matt Cain’s perfect game came against a horrendous rebuilding Houston Astros
team. There are obviously other ways to measure how well a pitcher performed
other than game score, because as I have stated, it is a fairly basic way of
measurement. If one wants to use some other form of measurement to try and rank
Kershaw’s performance higher or lower, that is understandable, but for
discussion’s sake I am trying to keep this fairly simple and easy to
understand.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
So, did Clayton Kershaw throw the best game in baseball
history? No, I do not see any way to spin it as that as you can go with Wood as
the best nine inning performance in the history of baseball or you can go with
some deadball pitchers who pitched 20+ innings, which inflated their game score.
One may also try and argue that Koufax’s perfect game or Nolan Ryan’s no-hitter
came against better talent, but it really is splitting hairs there. Is it fair
to say that Clayton Kershaw just pitched the greatest no-hitter in the history
of Major League Baseball? It is absolutely fair to state that it is the
greatest no-hitter in the history of baseball because of the number of strikeouts,
zero walks, the game score, and the level of talent Clayton Kershaw was up
against. Regardless of where one wants to rank his performance on the all-time
great chart, last night we witnessed true greatness by a pitcher.</div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-54370311465925654392014-06-18T21:02:00.001-05:002014-06-19T20:09:50.661-05:00Steinbrenner on SNL<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dynyJ78WOayaHyTApHo8vbavjinhjvbmB-MTK1SVsESSSAn4YkL5hcZcEFEfECNls8uBSy7vMk2bcXH0gBvTw' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<br />Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-52096716402864784302014-06-18T10:34:00.001-05:002014-06-18T10:50:58.272-05:00Cueto Feels Pain Like Never Before<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj57RyAPYEP-5qS68vK2bHzxAl-FNfTYDw4XlfilD8d5YcybEu_Oq4uQWPWE5W-vVs8szC1zZAK_LxtznVro-bMzfm6AIdoujVgC0vokvfTWwqH3KQDkK_7JevTjvUfsXnsfOqilMawQETp/s1600/Cueto.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj57RyAPYEP-5qS68vK2bHzxAl-FNfTYDw4XlfilD8d5YcybEu_Oq4uQWPWE5W-vVs8szC1zZAK_LxtznVro-bMzfm6AIdoujVgC0vokvfTWwqH3KQDkK_7JevTjvUfsXnsfOqilMawQETp/s1600/Cueto.gif" height="224" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-44484914513279241902014-06-17T15:44:00.002-05:002014-06-18T10:50:39.838-05:00MLB Power Rankings (6/17/14)<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">MLB Power Rankings<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTjDCPuhyJhgbcOYLN9GCqp4s9nJxrU0PiZasYs7wbJ4X0nDG7DJVFxSbGRpHte-qhIZstyTcuPab8PqhbH-s5CC5cK6Z6D7dITUX7XQwn7xjgddJ819kTXtOYnoK9MgyhAEDB2Z6m-t87/s1600/MLB.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTjDCPuhyJhgbcOYLN9GCqp4s9nJxrU0PiZasYs7wbJ4X0nDG7DJVFxSbGRpHte-qhIZstyTcuPab8PqhbH-s5CC5cK6Z6D7dITUX7XQwn7xjgddJ819kTXtOYnoK9MgyhAEDB2Z6m-t87/s1600/MLB.jpg" height="205" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
This is a very rudimentary
look at ranking MLB teams, as it is only mid-June and I have not published a
power rankings system before. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>1. Oakland Athletics – </b>Their run differential says it all (an
insane +126). The Athletics had a mixed week in terms of wins and losses, and
Josh Donaldson has been ice cold at the plate, but they still remain the best
team in baseball and should continue their rise once Donaldson snaps out of it.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>2. San Francisco Giants</b> – The Giants had a disappointing week,
winning only four of their last ten, but they are second in run differential
(+54), and continue to amaze in even years. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>3. Toronto Blue Jays</b> – The Blue Jays have taken a fairly commanding
lead in a competitive division, despite only winning four of their last ten,
but I am not quite sure how long they can hold onto this spot if they do not
trade for a starting pitcher. The odds are not in Marcus Stroman’s favor in
terms of succeeding as a starting pitcher.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>4. Milwaukee Brewers</b> – The Brew crew and their voodoo magic
continue to put up winning numbers in a division with four teams in search of a
playoff spot. They had a week over .500
and they have proven to be successful at home and on the road. Their pitching
staff has been good so far, but I am not sure it can be successful in the
long-term. The team makes this up with Gomez, Reynolds, Lucroy, and Braun among
others, who have proven to be successful this season.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>5. Los Angeles Angels</b> – The Angels have been really good this year
after two slumping years, finally getting production from high dollar signings
in Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. Trout is still phenomenal. Callups like CJ
Cron have proven to have some value in terms of power. Pitching has been mixed,
but Garrett Richards has been fantastic, keeping the staff alive. They finished
the past ten games with six wins.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>6. Detroit Tigers</b> – Outside of their closer woes, the Tigers have
had a fairly successful season, even with Verlander looking like the odd man
out in that rotation. Anibal Sanchez has been the most underrated pitcher in
baseball, having a WHIP of 0.941. Victor Martinez has been a godsend for the
Tigers as DH, even at age 35.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>7. Los Angeles Dodgers</b> – The
Dodgers are 6-4 in their last ten games thanks to the pitching staff. Everyone
in the rotation has been good, even Josh Beckett and offseason pickup Dan
Haren. Butera and Crawford are questions in regards to their offensive
production, but overall the offense has been productive for the season, even
though it has slipped a bit in the past couple weeks. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>8. Kansas City Royals</b> – The Royals have been powered by a much
better than anticipated pitching staff, which has kept them only half a game
back behind the Tigers in the American League Central.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>9. St. Louis Cardinals</b> – While the Cardinals are 3.5 games back
from the leading Brewers, they have been on a hot streak over the past ten
games, winning seven with phenomenal pitching. This is now up in the air with
staff ace Adam Wainwright having some arm issues, which could impact their
season greatly. Their offense has been lukewarm to say the least, so it remains
to be seen which direction they’re headed with the Wainwright injury.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>10. Atlanta Braves</b> - The Braves lead the National League East by
half a game and it is going to be a struggle to hold onto that spot, as the
Nationals close in. Ervin Santana has not been the impact pitcher that the
Braves hoped for, so expect them to shop for a starting arm possibly by the
trade deadline. One time janitor Evan Gattis has been raking for the Braves, posting
an OPS+ of 153, which has led them to four wins in their past ten games. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>11. Washington Nationals</b> – While Gio Gonzalez has been disappointing,
the rest of the pitching staff has been good for the Nationals, keeping them in
the NL East race. Nate McClouth has been a disaster in left field and the rest
of the offense has had mixed results. Bryce Harper needs to get healthy if the
Nationals want to trend upward.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>12. Baltimore Orioles</b> – The Orioles offense has been led by Nelson
Cruz who has crushed the ball 8% of the time. Kevin Gausman will likely be
brought up to replace Ubaldo Jimenez, who has disappointed. They are trending
downward with the loss of Matt Wieters to Tommy John surgery.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>13. Seattle Mariners</b> – The Mariners have put up a run differential
of <span class="greenfont">+32 in the wood chipper that is the American League
West. Seager and Cano have kept their offense afloat, with Seager increasing
his power almost exponentially and Cano getting on base. They have two great
pitchers in Iwakuma and Felix Hernandez, but need another arm to contend down
the stretch. Mariners could trend up or down, it is just too hard to tell at
this point.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span class="greenfont"><b>14. Cleveland Indians</b> – While they have
a run differential of -13, they have won six of their last ten games,
propelling them upward. Lonnie Chisenhall is a legit MVP candidate so far and
the rest of the offense has performed well, save for Ryan Rayburn. The pitching
staff is the real problem here, with their one-time ace Justin Masterson
underperforming big time. If the pitchers get it together expect a big jump
upward.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>15. Miami Marlins</b> – Who would have ever guessed the Marlins would
have been this good, even without Jose Fernandez? With a +15 run differential,
the Marlins are only one game behind the NL East lead. Led by Giancarlo
Stanton, the Marlins offense has actually been above league average overall
(they are held back offensively by Adeiny Hechavarria, who makes up for it with
great defense at shortstop). The rotation has been modest, but the addition of
recent call up Andrew Heaney will surely help their pitching. They are without
a doubt a team that can swing upwards. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>16. Colorado Rockies</b> – There is a good case to be made that Troy
Tulowitzki is the National League MVP, as he has lead the Rockies to keeping
their heads above water, posting a +12 run differential on the season. The
pitching staff has been poor to say the least with three of their five starters
under an ERA+ of 100. With an rough schedule upcoming and their division,
expect them to trend downward. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>17. Pittsburgh Pirates</b> – The pitching staff has been a real
disappointment for the Pirates this year, especially after losing A.J. Burnett.
The only starter on the team with an ERA+ over 100 is Charlie Morton. Francisco
Liriano is having a rough year. Jason Grilli has not been as good as he was
during last year’s winning season. The good news is that Andrew McCutchen is
starting to put it together and the recent call up Gregory Polanco appears to
be a boost that the Pirates desperately needed.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>18. Cincinnati Reds</b> – The Reds have not had the greatest season so
far, struggling in the National League Central, but do have some positives
going in their favor. Votto, Mesoraco, and Frazier have all had great years,
keeping the offense above water. Johnny Cueto may very well win the National
League CY Young award at this rate. Chapman has looked great since coming back.
The negatives? Pretty much everything else. This is another team that could go
either way trending-wise.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>19. New York Yankees</b> – Sitting at 6-4 after their last ten games,
the Yankees have had a mixed season. Teixera, Solarte, and Ellsbury have
performed well, but the Derek Jeter retirement tour is really dragging down the
offense and defense, but then again the Yankees do not have many other options,
other than maybe Brendan Ryan. The pitching staff has been riddled with
injuries, but Tanaka has been a phenom and Whitley has surprised, albeit in six
games started. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>20. Chicago White Sox</b> – Another team that has struggled and is
being carried by a few players. Do not expect the Sox’s stock to rise as they
are stuck as a middle of the pack team at best. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>21. Houston Astros</b> – The Astros have increased their stock since
the beginning of the year by calling up George Springer and Jonathan Singleton.
Fowler and Jose Altuve have also been valuable for the club throughout the
year. Dallas Keuchel has somehow been great all season. This is a rebuilding
team that has won six of their last ten.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>22. Minnesota Twins</b> – The Twins have not been good this year, but
are somehow only five out of the lead in the American League Central. They have
a league average offense, but the magical Phil Hughes is the only worthwhile
starter on the team. I would expect Hughes to regress eventually, sliding this
team even further down.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>23. Texas Rangers </b>– Plagued with injuries, the Rangers still remain
fighters in the American League West, going 5-5 over their last ten games. Beltre,
Choo, and Rios have produced, but injuries have left positions like 1B up to
AAA guys like Brad Snyder. Darvish has been great and Saunders has been good in
his limited time starting, but the Rangers are just such a mess now. At least
Joey Gallo is an up and comer!</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>24. New York Mets</b> – Not a good season by any stretch of the
imagination for the New York Mets, but at least Bobby Abreu has been on fire. 40
year old Abreu has posted an OPS of .833 in 94 plate appearances. At least you
have a cool guy on your team, Mets fans!</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>25. Boston Red Sox</b> – This has not been the Red Sox year. Despite
going 5-5 over their last ten games, Red Sox outfielders have been unable to
hit, with Jackie Bradley posting an OPS+ of 64, which is just horrible. Ortiz
and Napoli have been good, as has Mike Holt in limited time, but that is not
enough. Brandon Workman has thrown quality innings, which may give some Sox
fans that the team will trend upward. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>26. Chicago Cubs</b> – Rizzo and Starlin Castro have not been bad this
year, but they are still in their rebuilding state, where half of the lineup
and rotation is on the trade block. Arrieta and Hammel had good outings against
the Phillies which boosted their and the team’s stock some.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>27. Arizona Diamondbacks</b> – Arizona has been miserable at home, but
they are .500 on the road, which is why I am placing them as high as I am. A.J.
Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt are really carrying the offense, while nobody is
carrying the pitching staff. To make matters worse, highly paid Trevor Cahill
was just demoted to A ball. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>28. San Diego Padres</b> – Only one person, Seth Smith, on the offense
is producing. Only one person, Andrew Cashner, on the pitching staff is
producing. Over their previous ten games they are 2-8. They are bad, real bad. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>29. Philadelphia Phillies</b> – Philly just lost a home series to the
Chicago Cubs. Ben Revere and Dominic Brown have been anchors for this offense. Hamels
and Lee are producing on the pitching end of things, but that really is it for
the Phillies. It is time for this team to be sent out to pasture. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>30. Tampa Bay Rays</b> – David Dejesus is really the only guy on the
offensive producing at a high level. The pitching staff is not even that bad,
just really mediocre. Only Chris Archer has an ERA+ over 100. Being in the
American League East means that the Rays are doomed. </div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-86861617291457938192014-06-16T17:59:00.000-05:002014-06-18T10:51:03.192-05:00Potential Buyers & Sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline (6/16/14 Edition)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Potential Buyers &
Sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8_w7in2LDBHAGsQdxFb1VY7uVeuuxManou70_VKtvFJCIT-XFfLiRWbTOl6pM-QBWAA3PJs7xfl0nrGjomomK-yuKka7hY0jqaEhtxPy1ghlZpOSXUoqhIV4logs4wQMst-uvMIIAP-xz/s1600/cubs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8_w7in2LDBHAGsQdxFb1VY7uVeuuxManou70_VKtvFJCIT-XFfLiRWbTOl6pM-QBWAA3PJs7xfl0nrGjomomK-yuKka7hY0jqaEhtxPy1ghlZpOSXUoqhIV4logs4wQMst-uvMIIAP-xz/s1600/cubs.jpg" height="320" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>Big Sellers:</b> Chicago Cubs – Make no mistake, the Cubs are
positioned to finish with one of the worst records in Major League Baseball,
thus have no real interest in buying. Numerous Cubs have been linked to
possible deadline trades including Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel, Luis
Valbuena, Darwin Barney, and possibly Nate Schierholtz. <a href="http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/03/19/levine-top-tigers-evaluator-watching-schierholtz">Per Bruce Levin</a>, the Detroit Tigers were interested in both Barney and
Schierholtz, but both have tanked their value with poor seasons, especially
Schierholtz. Other teams linked to Darwin Barney include the Yankees and
Rangers. <a href="http://www.sportsrumoralert.com/2014/06/red-sox-rumors-boston-definitely.html">Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe</a> reports that the Red Sox have an
active interest in acquiring Schierholtz, as their outfielders have a
collective .214 batting average. I think it is likely that Schierholtz to the
Red Sox gets done sooner rather than later due to their need of another
outfielder. If both Barney and Schierholtz get traded, I would expect lottery
ticket-esque prospects akin to Corey Black, and not much else in return. While
there are little links to trading Valbuena right now, his rising stock and
value as a utility guy make him a target to be traded in late July. Hammel and,
more importantly, Samardzija are the two big arms that are likely to be traded
at the deadline. <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/478189209392406528">According to Bob Nightengale</a> the Giants, Yankees, Orioles, Angels, Red
Sox, and Blue Jays all appear to be in on Samardzija. The Chicago Sun-Times
also reports the Mariners to be interested in not only Samardzija, but Hammel
as well. I am not sure I buy the Giants rumor, and even if I did, I just do not
see the pieces there for the Giants to trade, as their top prospects, all arms,
have struggled this year. The Yankees need pitching, but they cannot make a
competitive package for Samardzija, as it would focus around Gary Sanchez, who
I do not believe is a strong enough anchor in a big trade. You have to keep in
mind Samardzija has another year of team control under arbitration in 2015, so
he is not a rental like David Price would be. The two most intriguing teams of
those mentioned are the Orioles and the Mariners. Some combination of Dylan
Bundy, Kevin Gausman, and Hunter Harvey would make up a trade package for
Samardzija, but I am not sure if the Orioles would be willing to deal all
three, or even two, for the Cubs ace. If I am Jed Hoyer, I would try to angle
for Dylan Bundy, who has seemingly recovered completely from Tommy John
surgery, and the rising Hunter Harvey, who will definitely start for some team
in the future. I think Bundy can still be an ace on a winning big league team,
so the Cubs should move Heaven and Earth to try and obtain him. The Seattle
Mariners really should make every attempt at Samardzija, even if it means
giving up top prospect Taijuan Walker, as they have had poor experiences
developing prospects and could have a proven arm in Samardzija. Some
combination of Victor Sanchez, Tyler Pike, and James Paxton could be added to a
package with Walker, which would be difficult for the Chicago Cubs to turn
down. If the Mariners only go after Hammel, who has been dominant all year,
posting an ERA+ of 139 so far, expect a package of some sort of those secondary
prospects just mentioned; Sanchez, Pike, and Paxton. <a href="http://www.suntimes.com/sports/28066162-419/jeff-samardzija-jason-hammel-trade-talks-well-underway.html#.U5xfM7GN3QK">Gordon Wittenmeyer</a> expects Hammel to end up in Seattle, despite the Braves and
Blue Jays being potentially interested in Hammel.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7I8qR2k9mTEj_VVn_tvBeswvOkJ8NnKInjua-xo_icfi-GtkfC-j5R3kDrgpwsX2aAp5sTENY9W3y-CfMAk9gUvDabWgLNj2stk-94SabdwbCa9srlzNJg62gwdxOeRmHZMTmM2xxxo1i/s1600/bluejays.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7I8qR2k9mTEj_VVn_tvBeswvOkJ8NnKInjua-xo_icfi-GtkfC-j5R3kDrgpwsX2aAp5sTENY9W3y-CfMAk9gUvDabWgLNj2stk-94SabdwbCa9srlzNJg62gwdxOeRmHZMTmM2xxxo1i/s1600/bluejays.jpg" height="275" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>Buyers:</b> Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays want a starting pitcher.
They, correctly, do not see Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, and Brandon Morrow as
reliable arms in a tight race in a tough division, let alone arms to trust to
start in the playoffs. <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2014/06/15/blue-jays-could-use-a-power-arm-in-their-rotation">Bob Elliot reports</a> big overtures have been made towards Jeff Samardzija and David
Price, both of which are under team control this year and next. Buster Olney
seems to think they do not have the pieces for either, but I disagree. Aaron
Sanchez has command issues and a slight injury history with his shoulder, but
he is still a top twenty-five prospect according to just about everyone. Some
package of Hutchison, Stroman, Osuna, and Norris would likely have to be
included in any package for either ace, but Alex Anthopoulos has shown a
willingness to not hold onto his prospects too tightly in the big trades made
with the Marlins and Mets. <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24576888/blue-jays-more-likely-to-play-for-shields-than-samardzija-this-summer">Jon Heyman seems to think</a> that the Blue Jays are more likely to go for a
short-term like James Shields, but the Royals are still in the playoff hunt and
I do not think Dayton Moore is going to trade a piece that big, so I would rule
that out regardless of what Heyman says. A.J. Burnett and Justin Masterson
might be available as rentals depending how their teams trend toward the trade
deadline. Burnett is the more likely of the two as the Phillies will not sniff
the playoffs this season, regardless of how hard Ruben Amaro Jr. keeps hoping. The
one hiccup in a Burnett to Toronto deal is Burnett has essentially a no trade
clause in his contract, allowing him to block trades to twenty-one teams. The
teams on Burnett’s no trade list have not been disclosed, so there is
uncertainty there.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX4QgeCqezKV6ytfPWUxE0vV8K1ezC2s2putkumXzN0gU-RQezhlCFK8tdfJl-LwC4y9v9zSfjGa6XBQpv9uA2HmbAHlVfQCCtXzR0MCrlKp_QK3iQdjv6q1jH2-sWC6vtb1Os0v4bun2M/s1600/pirates.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX4QgeCqezKV6ytfPWUxE0vV8K1ezC2s2putkumXzN0gU-RQezhlCFK8tdfJl-LwC4y9v9zSfjGa6XBQpv9uA2HmbAHlVfQCCtXzR0MCrlKp_QK3iQdjv6q1jH2-sWC6vtb1Os0v4bun2M/s1600/pirates.jpg" height="320" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>Maybe Sellers:</b> Pittsburgh
Pirates – The Pirates could be buyers, but the refusal to pay A.J. Burnett
shows that they will not make any sort of meaningful deadline trade to keep the
struggling Pirates in contention in the National League Central. <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11054460/pittsburgh-pirates-new-york-mets-teams-need-start-selling-mlb/refresh/true">Paul Swydan</a> expects Russell Martin and Francisco Liriano to be moved either
before the deadline or in the offseason. <a href="http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-rangers/headlines/20140608-here-are-the-rangers-options-both-inside-and-outside-the-organization-after-mitch-moreland-s-injury.ece">Gerry Fraley</a> reports that Gaby Sanchez is available and that the Texas Rangers
are taking a look at him after Mitch Moreland’s injury. Jason Grilli will be a
free agent after this season, so we will really know if the Pirates are buyers
or sellers if Grilli is moved. This is not a <span class="st">94-68 team like
last year and they play in a relatively tough division with the Cardinals and
Reds, so I think it is fair to say that they should and will become sellers
from all indications. The only thing stopping me from calling them sure fire
sellers is Andrew McCutchen heating up and Gregory Polanco getting called up
and producing in his limited amount of time. Maybe Polanco keeps them from
selling off, but it is too difficult to say at this point.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3Th8sMlIP27_SWGG2DTc3U4Pfnw5bgSyWj_9GA1XIrG2lVDI7klk-1Hn6b9FuxA8HRLCvECE1gwYxECt61jlzBh7WdYurRQtx9JDlDAk6-Zwlf2lvYf70so2KbS3PF3EXmzOUQM10OJam/s1600/rangers.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3Th8sMlIP27_SWGG2DTc3U4Pfnw5bgSyWj_9GA1XIrG2lVDI7klk-1Hn6b9FuxA8HRLCvECE1gwYxECt61jlzBh7WdYurRQtx9JDlDAk6-Zwlf2lvYf70so2KbS3PF3EXmzOUQM10OJam/s1600/rangers.gif" height="266" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span class="st"><b>Maybe Buyers: </b>Texas Rangers – The Rangers
will be buyers at the trade deadline, despite playing in the now lively AL
West. There is pretty much no shot that they catch the Oakland Athletics,
despite it being June, with the number of injuries the team has suffered.
Jurickson Profar is likely done for the season. Prince Fielder is done for the
season. Donnie Murphy just got off the DL. Tanner Scheppers is on the DL. Mitch
Moreland is on the DL and might be out for a while. Alexi Ogando is on the DL.
Matt Harrison is on the DL. Martin Perez is on the DL. Geovany Soto is on the
DL. Derek Holland is on the DL. Yu Darvish has had neck stiffness and is
day-to-day. Does that sound like a team that should be buying in an already
tough division? Nope, but Ranger GM Jon Daniels has expressed interest in
buying to try and stay in the AL West race or even wildcard race. The Rangers
were dealt a big blow when Kendrys Morles did not sign with them, leaving their
first baseman situation problematic. Career minor leaguer, thirty-two year old
Brad Snyder is currently their first basemen, so they will have to make a move
if Moreland is out for a longer period of time than expected. The Rangers are
in the market for a quality starting pitcher, looking at Jeff Samardzija or
perhaps Jon Lester if things completely fall apart for the Red Sox and they
become sellers at the trade deadline. I am sure a package involving phenom Joey
Gallo would draw interest from the Chicago Cubs. David Price is also in the mix
as a possible Rangers target, but he too would force Jon Daniels to give up
Joey Gallo. Daniels is well-known for valuing his prospects too highly, and
with Gallo already valued high by many, Daniels may see him as untradeable,
killing the Rangers chances of getting a Price/Samardzija-type arm. The Rangers
are the most likely team to flip from buyers to seller from now until the
deadline, as many things can still happen and Jon Daniels is hard to figure
out. I’ll keep them as buyers until the fat lady sings (or Jon Daniels finally
folds his hand).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq-KQAGe16gasTnY80MRqPDqQ7miUag2pHjdq4NIyOdUa7lMUTUusAfn_gqxVtxYEkoA95bYpaqOnBu3MkRnnlbyGpzBaT8cKf2sxCIoNmN6SFqDUGboeU24X2WOHqItOfNYbc-jS42NyX/s1600/Dbacks.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq-KQAGe16gasTnY80MRqPDqQ7miUag2pHjdq4NIyOdUa7lMUTUusAfn_gqxVtxYEkoA95bYpaqOnBu3MkRnnlbyGpzBaT8cKf2sxCIoNmN6SFqDUGboeU24X2WOHqItOfNYbc-jS42NyX/s1600/Dbacks.jpg" height="310" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span class="st"><b>Sellers: </b>Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks
are completely out of the NL West race and have been a disaster in terms of run
differential. The team is likely to end up with a bad record and a high draft
pick, so will likely be looking to move some pieces to acquire young talent. </span><span class="st"><a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/477106467653554176">Ken Rosenthal</a> states that Arroyo, McCarthy, Hill, Thatcher, and Parra will be
on the trading block by July 31. Recently sent down Trevor Cahill will be near
impossible to trade without the Diamondbacks eating a significant sum of the
large amount of money owed to him in the future. Gregorius has been a target of
the Mets, but with Tony La Russa taking power away from Diamondbacks GM Kevin
Towers, it is unknown whether he would be willing to trade Gregorius. Arroyo
and McCarthy would make great 4/5 starters on many contending teams including,
but not limited to, the Yankees, Red Sox, Reds, Angels, Giants, and Marlins
among others. The Diamondbacks will not receive top prospects that a David
Price or Jeff Samardzija would bring, but could fetch quality young bats from
the Yankees in </span>Eric Jagielo<span class="st"> or the Red Sox in </span>Garin
Cecchini or even Mookie Betts<span class="st">, or a young arm like </span>Justin
Nicolino from the Marlins. Outside of a few pieces, this is really a big
rebuilding process for La Russa and the Arizona Diamondbacks.</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLGXwR8u8Yn4K3p5HFWNlDG1apzmk4vcut5InJqsKanU8joEPltepYvHzi2L8n3vFJY3SBkA8EsIIcph7cIyb01-6W9Q2FZFa-ST79Q633U6wQ9Q1Yt0eNjmzWC7LpFEXufYsnCdraH5L5/s1600/mets.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLGXwR8u8Yn4K3p5HFWNlDG1apzmk4vcut5InJqsKanU8joEPltepYvHzi2L8n3vFJY3SBkA8EsIIcph7cIyb01-6W9Q2FZFa-ST79Q633U6wQ9Q1Yt0eNjmzWC7LpFEXufYsnCdraH5L5/s1600/mets.gif" height="320" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>Likely Sellers:</b> New York Mets – Although Alderson recently said the
team has the resources to be buyers at the deadline, I think they are more
likely to be minor sellers as they’re already five and a half games back on the
lead in the National League East. I do believe GM Sandy Alderson when he says
Jon Niese is not on the trading block. The team could and very well likely will
contend next year, but with injuries and inconsistency the Mets will be making
at the least some minor moves. Somehow forty year old Bobby Abreu has heated up
the Mets otherwise dismal offense. Over the past month Abreu has posted a
weighted on base average of .398, which is out of this world good if you do not
understand wOBA. In 91 plate appearances for the Mets, Abreu has posted an OPS
of .846, while being a solid right fielder. It really is crazy, but he could be
the top bat at the trade deadline. The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit
Tigers are the two teams that come to mind as potential destinations, as Nori
Aoki has been poor offensively in RF for the contending Royals and Torii Hunter
has looked lost for the Tigers. Maybe the Mets can fetch someone like Sean
Manaea or Devon Travis for him, but that’s a big maybe for a rental on an old
man that is extremely hot right now. <a href="http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-under-the-radar-trade-possibilities/">Peter Gammons</a> seems to think that Bartolo Colon could be a potential trade
target and he is right. Colon has been better than his ERA would indicate and
would draw plenty of attention for teams looking for a mid/back rotation
starter. I have listed a ton of them, but Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Reds,
Angels, Mariners, etc. all make sense. He could at least fetch a lottery
ticket-type prospect or two from one of those teams, which I think Alderson
would do a deal for. I would not expect any cornerstone moves for the trade
deadline, but I really do think they will be buyers (or attempt to be buyers)
in the offseason. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8bHlOT-ncmozcw8Nlpv0I6ws7ynpYdJxeF3VhHs41sO-txTHQRM7-CXYZnLa-t7fpqcCSvZqSAoUrT6hjk09l8V5SmmXtaOwQ_2Fq-GgY4afqJBvFAobg3LHRqdllIubi2UyfKeWKl2PU/s1600/angels.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8bHlOT-ncmozcw8Nlpv0I6ws7ynpYdJxeF3VhHs41sO-txTHQRM7-CXYZnLa-t7fpqcCSvZqSAoUrT6hjk09l8V5SmmXtaOwQ_2Fq-GgY4afqJBvFAobg3LHRqdllIubi2UyfKeWKl2PU/s1600/angels.gif" height="320" width="234" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>Buyers: </b>Los Angeles Angels – The Angels are finally competitive in
the American League West this year, largely due to Ianetta, Pujols, and
Hamilton finally producing with some decent pitching. Decent pitching, however,
does not win you an AL West pennant, as Wilson and Weaver have been slightly
above league average and Garrett Richards has pitched better than anyone could
have reasonably expected, but the four and five starting pitcher spots have
been rocky to say the least. Tyler Skaggs has yet to live up to the hype that I
once bought into (and still believe is possible in the future) and Hector
Santiago and Matt Shoemaker are not starting pitchers on a team that wants to
make a deep playoff run. Bob Nightengale has listed the Angels as one of the
teams in on this year’s prize, Jeff Samardzija. The problem is that the Angels
do not have the prospects to match the Orioles, Mariners, Blue Jays, or Rangers
among the others that are in on Samardzija. Buster Olney believes they have
enough to make a go at the other Cubs starter, Jason Hammel. Mark Sappington
and Hunter Green might be enough to get a Jason Hammel deal done, but other
offers for Hammel could be better. Nick Cafardo seems to think the Angels may
wait until the offseason to go after Jon Lester, but maybe the Angels could
throw out the entire farm for renting him as they are in striking distance. A
minor need would be a left-handed relief arm and <a href="https://twitter.com/Alden_Gonzalez/status/472060060466573312">Alden Gonzalez</a> indicates that they could go after Antonio Bastardo, Troy
Patton, or Sean Marshall. I would not say the Angels are in a great spot
because their farm system is just too weak to get a top pitcher, which they
need, but they may be able to acquire a Jason Hammel-type and power though the
post-season if they make the playoffs. </div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP7FRa69LmpLP6uGpOh0Apow2mXFaYsthuMSw0jFdbVHhTPcvUzmeg1y2mVfI_JNAcFR9virALlJA2hQQIYcpyskXsRijDAIoDQvPcMmrfk32HilvHQ88-V1dac0TDKtJ3lTexg5WJJ8sk/s1600/Tigers.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP7FRa69LmpLP6uGpOh0Apow2mXFaYsthuMSw0jFdbVHhTPcvUzmeg1y2mVfI_JNAcFR9virALlJA2hQQIYcpyskXsRijDAIoDQvPcMmrfk32HilvHQ88-V1dac0TDKtJ3lTexg5WJJ8sk/s1600/Tigers.gif" height="320" width="318" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<b>Buyers: </b>Detroit Tigers – Everyone knows the biggest need for the
Detroit Tigers is a bullpen arm, specifically a closer. Joba Chamberlain and Al Albuquerque have been
good in the bullpen for them, but they need at least another quality bullpen
arm. Joe Nathan has been bad during his tenure with the Tigers to say the
least. I have not seen them linked to any name specifically for a
bullpen/closer role, but I would assume the three previously mentioned
(Bastardo, Patton, Marshall), Huston Street, and possibly Grilli if the Pirates
start selling off. Another major hole for the Tigers has been shortstop, which
has largely been played by Andrew Romine, who has put up an OPS+ of 45, which
is horrendous. Jose Iglesias is not going to be playing this season, so there
is a real dilemma there. Recent callup <span class="boldtext">Eugenio Suarez</span>
has played beyond expectations in limited plate appearances, so they may stick
with him. No links at this time, but I think there is an outside chance they make
a play for Darwin Barney to use as an utility guy, if not SS if Suarez finds
himself outmatched. Another hole for the Detroit Tigers has been Torii Hunter,
who is putting up slightly below average offensive numbers, but has performed
poorly in right fielder. Nate Schierholtz is someone on the Tigers radar and I
think they should go after Bobby Abreu. In the case of Schierholtz, it would
take much lesser prospects to obtain him, but he has performed poorly this
season too. It is really hard to assign a value on Abreu at this point, but
they should go after him.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_taTrNx_VdWMyVM5VqDdlSJtUxz40l1Ks-Mf0nl13lzcMJc-J6YdwMK6ENfCEfBiIV91haj1inMFdIYlw3jgr3xIVu0cGD3jz80tgileehFwta8OvQEFvyRG84s1dNK_6euXHYy40KKYP/s1600/padres.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_taTrNx_VdWMyVM5VqDdlSJtUxz40l1Ks-Mf0nl13lzcMJc-J6YdwMK6ENfCEfBiIV91haj1inMFdIYlw3jgr3xIVu0cGD3jz80tgileehFwta8OvQEFvyRG84s1dNK_6euXHYy40KKYP/s1600/padres.gif" height="256" width="400" /></a></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span class="boldtext"><br /></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span class="boldtext"><b>Sellers: </b>San Diego Padres – This season
has been quite the disappointment to many Padres fans, already thirteen and a
half games back in the division. Outside of Seth Smith, Huston Street and
Andrew Cashner, the team has performed poorly to say the least. Padres closer
Huston Street is almost certain to be traded by the deadline, as he has
performed well and there are number of teams interested in him (Detroit Tigers,
Los Angeles Angels). <a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/san-diego-padres-roster-changes-could-be-imminent-061314">Ken Rosenthal</a> lists Street, Seth Smith, Ian Kennedy, and Chris Denorfia as
players likely to be traded if not by the deadline, then during the offseason
as the San Diego Padres organization undergoes changes. Ian Kennedy is in a
similar spot as Jason Hammel in that he is a quality starting pitcher, but not
top tier like Samardzija or Price. Angels and Blue Jays could be interested in
Kennedy. The Orioles, Rays, and Tigers
might be interested in Smith as a corner outfielder. I would expect the Tigers
to give Denorfia a look as a right fielder if they cannot get something done
with Abreu or Smith. All of the teams interested have a fair amount of
prospects, which could boost an already strong farm system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span class="boldtext"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/H93MN8D.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/H93MN8D.gif" height="320" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span class="boldtext"><b>Likely Buyers: </b>Seattle Mariners – Although
they are already seven games back in the American League West, they have shown
some signs of life and have a good enough farm system to get some pieces to
stay in contention. I have mentioned numerous times that they are in the market
for pitching. They have been linked to David Price for some time now, but
Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik has yet to pull the trigger on any sort of deal for
Price, which would undoubted require trading </span>Taijuan Walker, something
he has seemingly been against. Price, Samardzija, and Hammel are the three
starting pitchers that have been linked to the Mariners, with Hammel being the
strongest link. Erasmo Ramirez and Brandon Maurer have been bad in their stints
as Mariners starters, but to be fair to Maurer they called him up a bit early
(something that I worry they will do with Taijuan Walker). Hammel or Ian
Kennedy at the least would keep them in the game and a Price or Samardzija
would give them a significant boost. The Mariners are one of the teams
supposedly in on Lester, but I do not see them giving him a long-term deal.
Standing pat and hoping James Paxton comes back healthy will not get them to
the playoffs. Their lineup might be passable if Brad Miller was not the
shortstop. Miller has a disastrous OPS of .525. Maybe they give a look at Ben
Zobrist or Darwin Barney to play the position. The market this deadline is just
so shallow on possible shortstops. I think they can still make a go at a
playoff spot, but they need to make moves, not sit.</div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-70600496967189716832014-06-15T14:00:00.000-05:002014-06-18T10:50:58.274-05:00Puig Is Too Good At Bat Flipping<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTo7ps0OQXcrBDjme-Ft-MtFcw8PkeKIYDwQPNH2iOS5McNTPJHcal4zQUMFJyo3uLubhVvj_z1zahNsP0xNg7AHdHcqC5AvYM04_xhUtamp8NACOENS22MqVjdZuIQc_xRIrf6sUmXLEI/s1600/izfoZzYex4TPf.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTo7ps0OQXcrBDjme-Ft-MtFcw8PkeKIYDwQPNH2iOS5McNTPJHcal4zQUMFJyo3uLubhVvj_z1zahNsP0xNg7AHdHcqC5AvYM04_xhUtamp8NACOENS22MqVjdZuIQc_xRIrf6sUmXLEI/s1600/izfoZzYex4TPf.gif" height="224" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-11937213735034173802014-06-15T13:55:00.002-05:002014-06-23T22:10:01.348-05:00Jimmy Rollins: Hall of Famer?<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt;">Jimmy
Rollins: Hall of Famer?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/gbqYm5n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/gbqYm5n.jpg" height="265" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> Yesterday,
June 14, 2014, Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins surpassed Mike
Schmidt’s record for most hits with the Philadelphia Phillies, hitting number 2,235
off Edwin Jackson of the Chicago Cubs in his third at bat. One would have to
immediately wonder if breaking a mark held by Mike Schmidt, whom many would
consider the greatest third baseman of all-time, puts Rollins in the discussion
for a hall of fame spot. Rollins is not a guy you completely rule out upon
immediately hearing his name, but has he achieved enough to be voted into the
hall of fame, let alone be in the discussion.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> 35
year old Rollins has played in Major League Baseball for fifteen years, all of
which he has spent with the Philadelphia Phillies. His first four years with
the team were subpar offensively statistically speaking, but Rollins had two of
his three all-star appearances within those first four years, if you were to
include his 2000 14 game big league stint, which I am including out of kindness.
His OPS+, which normalizes park effects and allows us to compare players
offensive output in a fair way, with 100 being league average, for those first
four seasons are 83, 93, 85, and 90. Another comprehensive statistic to measure
the offensive output for a given player is wOBA, weighted on base average,
which also paints Rollins as subpar in those first four seasons, with two
average scores, one below average score, and a poor score. Why exactly did
Rollins get elected to two all-star teams (the value of an all-star team
appearance can be debated, but I will leave it alone for now) with such mediocre
offense? The answer is found in his defense. Measuring defense comprehensively
and well with statistics is just not possible at this point in time, so when
one measures defense it should be by the eye largely. A statistic like
defensive WAR is weak due to how it poorly measures defense (if it is not, then Andrelton Simmons is already one
of the greatest players of all-time), UZR is weird with locations, and errors
are often left up to the official scorer, who may be incompetent or biased.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> Going
beyond just those four years, Rollins has been one of the premier defensive
shortstops in Major League Baseball during his tenure. His quick decision making,
his speed, his agility, and his arm all make him a top defensive shortstop,
making up for what he may lack offensively. Rollins probably does not get
enough credit defensively due to playing alongside Omar Vizquel, who is
unquestionably one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all-time. I am sure
most who are reading this have seen Rollins play at least once on television or
online, allowing even the most casual fan to see what a tremendous defense
asset Jimmy Rollins is at shortstop. So much of defensive ability in baseball
history is unfortunately left to the individuals who saw a player play or
covered a team, which is why Honus Wagner is considered one of the greatest, if
not the greatest shortstop, of all-time. Is Rollins on the level of Wagner,
Vizquel, or Ozzie Smith? Most likely not, but that question would be better
suited for an actual baseball historian. Is Rollins defense a big positive into
moving him into the hall of fame discussion? Without a doubt, his defense plays
one big role.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> Rollins
added to his mastery as a defensive shortstop with some quality seasons
offensively, posting three seasons with an OPS over .800, six seasons with an
OPS+ better than 100, and a wOBA north of .340, including his 2007 Most
Valuable Player award winning season in which he posted a weighted on base
average of .371. Only once did Rollins have a batting average over .300 and
that was his 14 game rookie ‘season’. While all of those are positives, with
the exception of the 2007 MVP season, Rollins has posted merely good numbers at
best. Rollins possesses nothing extraordinary in counting statistics (runs,
home runs, stolen bases) outside of his team record 2,235 hits. I would
certainly hope someone would not use the argument that “Schmidt is in, so
Rollins must get in!” Mike Schmidt is literally the greatest third baseman, not
just due to defense but also video game-esque numbers. Schmidt’s average OPS+
is 147, which really puts Rollins’s 97 career OPS+ in a bad light, but I just
wanted to note that there is no real comparison between Schmidt and Rollins
other than both are/were Phillies and both held the hits record for the
Philadelphia Phillies organization. A real comparison for Jimmy Rollins would
be Alan Trammell. Trammell, the career Tiger’s shortstop was equally as good
defensively as Rollins and has Rollins beat in most counting or rate
statistics. More hits, better OBP, better OPS, better OPS+, Trammell has him
cornered in about every category and matched with every award, with the
exception of Rollins’s 2007 MVP award. Trammell has been on the hall of fame
ballot for thirteen years now, receiving only 20.8% of the vote in his
thirteenth year on the ballot. As hall of fame season begins during the
off-season, I am sure I will have more on the case of Alan Trammell, who should
be in.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> What
does Trammell’s failed candidacy say about Jimmy Rollins? His chances of making
it into Cooperstown seem slim, maybe even non-existent. Rollins best hope is
some form of narrative that writers from the Baseball Writers Association of
America. Perhaps it will be “Rollins brought a championship to Philadelphia for
the second time in the city’s history” or “Rollins won the MVP during a year
where there were tons of quality candidates.” I do not buy into any of these
narratives and you likely will not either, but there is a slight chance that
some of the writers who vote will, and that is where Rollins hope in staying on
the ballot for more than one year lies. I am a fan of keeping players who are
likely not hall of famers, but had great careers on the ballot for more than
one year if only for the discussion it brings up between fans. An example of
this would be Kenny Lofton during the last voting process. I dismissed Lofton
out of hand without looking up his career numbers. “He was a good player, but
he moved around team-to-team so often he could not have been that good” was my
thought at the time. After doing fairly extensive research on Lofton, I still
came to the conclusion that he was slightly short of being hall of fame-worthy,
but the fact that he was on the ballot allowed me to review his career and
realize what a great player he truly was. A similar scenario is what I envision
and hope for in regards to Jimmy Rollins. He will be remembered as a very good,
if not great, two-way player at arguable the most difficult position on the
field, shortstop.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> Rollins
probably has a couple more years left in him as a valuable starting shortstop,
be it for Philadelphia or some team that acquires him in a trade or free
agency. His top asset, his defense at shortstop, has slipped some over recent
years, but he would be an upgrade for a number of teams, especially those with
shortstops who are anemic hitters. The additional years will not alter the case
of Jimmy Rollins in any certain way. He will not hit any special marks with
home runs, hits, or stolen bases. It is unlikely he will win any more Gold
Gloves, Silver Sluggers. He probably will not see another all-star appearance with
the rise of younger, more athletic shortstops getting that spot. He will not
add to his case from an advanced statistical point of view, as there will be no
more seasons of 120+ OPS+ or seasons with an OPS over .800. Regardless of the
future and Cooperstown, Jimmy Rollins has certainly had a career to remember.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-12743102012725550672014-06-13T19:54:00.001-05:002014-06-18T10:50:58.269-05:00Andrew McCutchen Does The Worm<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://giant.gfycat.com/HonorableCloudyAntarcticfurseal.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://giant.gfycat.com/HonorableCloudyAntarcticfurseal.gif" height="220" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-92098736758355576142014-06-13T17:25:00.002-05:002014-06-18T10:51:12.878-05:00Platelet-Rich Therapy: The Future for Some UCL Injuries or Fraud?<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt;">Platelet-Rich
Therapy: The Future for Some UCL Injuries or Fraud?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/fQPLGap.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.imgur.com/fQPLGap.jpg" height="295" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> As
everyone is well aware, we have seen an epidemic of UCL injuries, which almost
ultimately lead to Tommy John surgery, which is the layman’s term for ulnar
collateral ligament reconstruction. The brief history lesson regarding Tommy
John surgery is Dr. Frank Jobe performed the first UCL reconstruction on Tommy
John in 1974, allowing John to continue pitching after the then experimental
surgery was proven to be successful. The UCL is located on the elbow towards
the body, as opposed to away from the body. We have seen twenty two Tommy John
surgeries done for major league player, not counting minor league or college
arm, the most through mid-June in baseball history. I am not a doctor, so I
cannot go into great detail as to why these injuries happen beyond constant use
of the arm, which should make sense considering it happens largely to players, high
velocity pitches, which causes strain on the arm over a period of time, and throwing
secondary pitches at an early age. Jo Innes wrote more extensively on Tommy
John surgery <a href="http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2014-06-12/tommy-john-surgery-injury-recovery-treatment-tjs-return-time-pitchers-jeff-hoffman">here</a>.Twins
prospect Miguel Sano is one of the rarities that are a player who suffered a
torn UCL and was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> In
my Cubs draft write-up, I was intrigued by the case of Cubs sixth round
selection Dylan Cease, who suffered a partially torn UCL in high school as a
senior, which caused his draft stock to fall rather rapidly. Unlike a fully torn
UCL, which requires surgery to compete at any athletic level again, a partially
torn UCL has other potential options before Tommy John surgery. Dr. Robert F
Kacprowicz states that the one way to treat a partially torn ulnar collateral
ligament, which he calls an acute UCL tear, without surgery, is with three to six
months of physical therapy, cold packs on the elbow, and nonsteroidal
anti-inflammatory drugs, such as aspirin. Most recently, this was attempted
with the aforementioned top prospect Miguel Sano, but did not prove to be
successful as Sano had Tommy John surgery on March 12, 2014. Like many other
pitchers, Matt Harvey attempted to go down the physical rehabilitation path in September
when he had a partially torn UCL, but ended up having Tommy John surgery in
late October after a fruitless physical rehabilitation attempt. One notable
pitcher who suffered a torn UCL is Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, who pitched
for nearly five years with a partially torn UCL, but that is a rarity in every
sense of the word. Physical rehabilitation may be somewhat successful for the
average individual, but the vast majority of major league players, notably
pitchers, do have to get Tommy John surgery. Tommy John surgery generally
allows a pitcher to return back to form, as we have seen with Stephen Strasburg,
Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Carpenter, and John Smoltz among others. Regardless of
the success rate, Tommy John surgery can sideline a pitcher for a year or
longer, depending upon the rehabilitation and possible setbacks after the
surgery.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> Dylan
Cease chose not to undergo Tommy John surgery and decided for a relatively new
route in partially torn UCL recovery, Platelet-Rich Therapy. <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/platelet-rich-plasma-therapy-dennis-cardone-sports-medicine-injury/">Carina Storrs</a> describes Platelet-Rich Therapy as taking thirty milliliters of
the patient’s blood, spinning it in a centrifuge to separate the platelet-rich
plasma, then taking the platelets and injecting them into the injury location. This
relatively new type of treatment for injuries made news in the past few years,
with Kobe Bryant and Tiger Woods having used the treatment for knee injuries. Studies
on its effectiveness in general, let alone athletes, have been mixed to say the
least. While no platelet-rich therapy studies have been done directly looking
at its effect on a partially torn UCL due to how new the procedure really is,
<a href="http://www.empr.com/saline-as-effective-as-prp-injections-in-epicondylitis-pain/article/355305/">a new study done on platelet-rich therapy focusing on epicondylitis, best known as tennis elbow, seems to indicate that one should not be too hopeful of the procedure, as people given platelet-rich therapy fared no better than those given the placebo, saline.</a> On the
other hand, <a href="http://ajs.sagepub.com/content/41/2/356.abstract">another study found that platelet-rich therapy helped individuals with osteoarthritis in the short term</a>. The osteoarthritis study, while not ligament/muscle-based, is
one of the few studies that examine platelet-rich therapy and its effectiveness
in humans. <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20517680">One study</a> looking platelet-rich therapy in healing ACL injuries, found that those who use
the therapy after surgery had significantly more stable knees six months
following the surgery. <a href="http://www.healio.com/orthopedics/biologics/journals/ortho/%7B60a4c6e2-52e7-47a4-9f0e-3e96785844ec%7D/platelet-rich-plasma-a-review-of-the-science-and-possible-clinical-applications">A Lyras, Kazakos, and Verettas study</a> looked at the effects of platelet-rich
therapy in rabbit tendons and found that the rabbits received a statistically
significant increase in tendon strength early in the platelet-rich therapy
process, but the rabbits receive the therapy had the same level of strength as
those who did not receive the therapy four weeks later. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Within the next
few years more research should come out regarding platelet-rich therapy for
tendons and ligaments in humans, but for now the science is inconclusive, which
naturally leads to the question why try it? One reason is strong anecdotal
evidence, spread from athlete-to-athlete. Basketball player Kobe Bryant had the
therapy done for his knee, then told Alex Rodriguez about the therapy, who
publicly praised it for helping his knee also. Rodriguez told UFC President
Dana White about the therapy, who claimed the procedure “100 percent” cured him
of Meniere’s Disease. How much of their success is due to the platelet-rich
therapy is unknown. As is well known, Bryant, Rodriguez, and Tiger Woods all
continued to struggle with their injuries, despite getting the therapy and
praising it. Platelet-rich therapy treatment is viewed as <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/06/11/320971966/platelet-rich-plasma-therapy-gains-fans-but-remains-unproven">relatively safe</a>. Other than a few hundred or thousand dollars, what does a player
have to lose? The alternative, Tommy John surgery, takes a tremendous time to
recover from, so players may view it as a quick solution. That is likely the
situation Cubs draftee Dylan Cease was in, as Tommy John surgery would have
kept him out the remainder of his high school season, hurt his draft stock
potentially even more, and would have possibly kept him out of his entire freshman
season at Vanderbilt if he were to choose to attend. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">The mystery
surrounding the procedure leaves him, along with other pitchers to get the
therapy, as a question mark, both short-term and long-term. Chad Billingsley attempted
the platelet-rich therapy route in 2013 after suffering a UCL tear, but fell
victim to Tommy John surgery just starts into the 2013 season. Orioles catcher
Matt Wieters had a platelet-rich therapy injection May 12, 2014 in his right
elbow, but progress has not been seen in Wieters arm, so he is currently
planning to discuss his options with Dr. James Andrews. Phillies pitcher Jonathan
Pettibone decided to undergo platelet-rich therapy and a cortisone injection
after suffering a torn labrum. In April, Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles received
two platelet-rich injections to help with an oblique strain injury and has
missed little time since then. According to CBSSports.com, Marco Scutaro, who
has yet to play on the year, underwent a procedure similar to platelet-rich
therapy, but did not go into detail on what the procedure exactly was. Scutaro
remains to be seen on the field. Listing these players and their conditions
before and after platelet-rich therapy is nothing more than anecdotal evidence,
but it has to raise some eyebrows as to its effective even to those who just
want to see correlation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">With Platelet-rich
therapy, arrows seemingly point in all directions. One guy says it helps, one
guy says it does not help. One study is positive regarding its healing effects,
another dismisses the effects when compared to a placebo. I think it is fair to
say that there just is not enough data to make a strong judgment in either
direction, although the correlation between those who attempt to get
platelet-rich therapy and physical rehabilitation and future ligament or muscle
issues is hard to overlook. After more research is conducted and platelet-rich
therapy is proven to help speed up recovery, akin to human growth hormone,
would it be added to the banned substance list? The better question is will
they even be able to test for it, considering HGH testing is already poor, and
this involves an individual’s own blood essentially being placed back in them.
At this point in time though, it is fair to ask if it is likely someone like
Dylan Cease will need Tommy John surgery eventually or if platelet-rich therapy
is enough to hold him off for a while, akin to Adam Wainwright. This is just my
guess, but Cease is likely going to need surgery sooner rather than later. As
for what this means as far as the future of UCL injury treatment remains up in
the air. In one year from now, we will have a much better idea with the number
of platelet-rich therapy studies that are currently underway. At this point in
time, one cannot call platelet-rich therapy a fraud, but it is certainly not
been an empirical answer to partially torn UCL, which could decrease the amount
of Tommy John surgeries done in the future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-3185012821778470812014-06-12T19:23:00.001-05:002014-06-18T10:51:26.190-05:00The Greatest Slide in Baseball History<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDs5e70a4yLMkQ7Qs1MQ1NxEu2l6mFCmyk5OyN7eOOl3SL6qfLz67J8iD73XZEgU25-Z704i35iT8W6C4RvhdTNj_vdkyBPA5NOYTNYDy8aWbRdnwq1KScybdGvj_ka9tHRr9L_TlEdO0K/s1600/DumbSlide.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDs5e70a4yLMkQ7Qs1MQ1NxEu2l6mFCmyk5OyN7eOOl3SL6qfLz67J8iD73XZEgU25-Z704i35iT8W6C4RvhdTNj_vdkyBPA5NOYTNYDy8aWbRdnwq1KScybdGvj_ka9tHRr9L_TlEdO0K/s1600/DumbSlide.gif" height="225" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-910792527957100372.post-86350945124965727512014-06-11T12:49:00.001-05:002014-06-15T22:35:35.530-05:00Amazing Throw by Yoenis Cespedes<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqQ8nWP5PPm2IQT_XT-7er4PcNnDX6BtucG1lrl-YIvb1k4lliprDb_izk0iLbI3ujG57L4yOdA-2QATmEzQmNWntI7Gqoo4AFzGLjkRHdoKMw0vs4ICQ6wsWmWf2i51kgKqEUw0HzDzlu/s1600/856551039.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqQ8nWP5PPm2IQT_XT-7er4PcNnDX6BtucG1lrl-YIvb1k4lliprDb_izk0iLbI3ujG57L4yOdA-2QATmEzQmNWntI7Gqoo4AFzGLjkRHdoKMw0vs4ICQ6wsWmWf2i51kgKqEUw0HzDzlu/s1600/856551039.gif" height="218" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Beisbol's Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05991288859781557786noreply@blogger.com0