Beisbol's Blog
News and discussion of all things baseball, including MLB, prospects, high school/college, Nippon Professional Baseball, and Korean Baseball Organization.
Friday, July 11, 2014
Tuesday, July 1, 2014
MLB Mid-Season Awards Part Two
MLB Mid-Season Awards Part
Two
National League
Manager of the Year: Ron Roenicke (Brewers)
Let me be the first in stating that the Manager of the
Year award is like the RBI of awards, relatively meaningless in comparison to
MVP or Cy Young. It is much easier to point to somebody and say what a terrible
manager they are as opposed to picking out the good ones. There are probably a
couple good selections for this award, but so far I have to hand it to Ron
Roenicke for sticking with Scooter Gennett at second base, when a number of
managers would have probably let Rickie Weeks be the permanent second baseman. He
also deserves credit with sticking Francisco Rodriguez as the closer again,
where Rodriguez has performed well at this year. Coming into the year I did not
expect this team to be in the National League Central playoff hunt, but here we
are, with the Brewers leading the tough division by 6.5 games. Have to give
some credit to Ron for decisions that have lead to their success.
American League
Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin (Athletics)
Melvin has done a good job in Oakland this year once
again, leading the American League West by five games. He probably has kept the
offensively-anemic Eric Sogard in at second base for too many games, but the
other choice for the spot is Nick Punto, so I cannot really blame Melvin.
Melvin also deserves credit for keeping Brandon Moss as the daily first baseman
as opposed to trying out Daric Barton, who has failed at first base time and
time again. Oakland’s rotation has performed better this season than last, even
with the injuries, and I will give Melvin some credit with not freaking out
when given Scott Kazmir as your number two starter in 2014. Oakland currently
sits with a wacky run differential of +134, which Melvin
gets a tiny bit of credit for utilizing guys properly.
Major
League Baseball Comeback Player of the Year: Starting Pitcher Scott Kazmir
(Athletics)
It is hard to overemphasize how done
Scott Kazmir looked a few years ago. Despite having a strikeout per nine
innings rate of 9.2 last year, Kazmir posted a 4.04 ERA, which while improved
was far from the ace that was once of the Tampa Bay Rays (then Devil Rays). In
103.1 innings pitched, Kazmir has an ERA of 2.61, an ERA+ of 145, a hits per
nine innings rate of 7.1, a career low. His walks per nine innings are also a
career low at 2.1. His strikeouts per nine innings are only 7.9, which is a bit
disappointing, but he is not going for the Cy Young award. He is the number two
starter on the best team in baseball and has produced when injury struck
Oakland’s rotation. I am not sure it is fair to say Scott Kazmir is back, but
he is no longer the joke he was thought of just a couple of years ago.
National
League Comeback Player of the Year: Starting Pitcher Josh Beckett (Dodgers)
Beckett was viewed as dead weight
last year, posting an ERA+ of 70 for the Los Angeles Dodgers, with his hits per
nine innings reaching a high of 10.4. Beckett was walking 3.1 batters per nine
innings. His home runs per nine innings reached a career high of 1.66. Everything
suddenly changed for Beckett this year, reducing his walks per nine innings to
2.69 and his home runs per nine innings to 1.06. This year Josh Beckett has an
ERA of 2.11 and an ERA+ of 168. Explaining Beckett’s magical comeback is
probably another article if I could find a way to really explain it, but
Beckett has had various slumps throughout his career, the latest lasting two
full seasons in which he posted an ERA+ of 89 and 70. Beckett is holding his
own and proving to be better than some of the others in the rotation (Greinke,
Haren, Ryu). In ERA+, he is second only to the best pitcher in baseball,
Clayton Kershaw, who has an ERA+ of 174. Beckett just being a step behind
Kershaw after being dead weight last year makes him the National League
Comeback Player of the Year.
Monday, June 30, 2014
MLB Mid-Season Awards Part One
MLB Mid-Season Awards Part
One
July begins tomorrow, meaning the all-star game
approaches, and we are more than halfway through the season. We have a large
enough sample to make some effort in determining who should win various awards
so far based on performance throughout the season. Things can and will
obviously change from here until season’s end, so these are just for fun.
American League Most
Valuable Player: Outfielder Mike Trout (Angels)
Trout continues to be not only the best player in
baseball, but continues a trend that puts him in elite company. Trout, age
twenty-two, is now the all-time leader in fWAR among MLB players in history
through their age twenty-two season. He currently leads Ty Cobb by 0.7 fWAR
with a good portion of the season remaining. As of right now, Trout is a once-in-a-lifetime-type
player. In 344 plate appearances this season, Mike Trout has an OPS of 1.017, a
career-high in an already impressive career. His weighted on base average, or
wOBA, is second in all of baseball only to Troy Tulowitzki, at .432. Tulowitzki
has a pretty stark home/away difference in terms of batting and power, giving
Trout the edge as the best player in baseball. This is not as stark with Trout,
who has a home OPS of 1.025 and an away OPS of 1.009. That kind of consistency
is what makes Trout a better hitter. Beyond the bat, Trout is as close to
perfect as you will see today. His baserunning is arguably the best in baseball,
with good speed, especially for someone with his size. Some may say he has
developed an 80 power tool, hitting a home run that was unofficially measured
at 489 feet, but regardless of where you rate the power, it is there, as he has
hit eighteen thus far and is likely to reach a career-high by year’s end. Trout
has been good-to-very good defensively, spending the entire season in center
field. I can understand the argument behind Tulowitzki if you want to try it,
but I think the home/away split and baserunning separates him by quite a bit.
National League Most
Valuable Player: Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)
At
Coors, Tulowitzki is Superman, putting up a ridiculous OPS of 1.309. His home
wOBA is scale-breaking at .553. Tulowitzki OPS away from Coors has been .831,
which is a massive split. His away wOBA is .362, which is still very good, but
not the Superman-type stuff we have been seeing at Coors. Despite this huge
split, Tulowitzki is my choice for National League MVP. I am not going to hand
wave away numbers because they were at Coors. Would he be less productive if he
were on say the Pirates? Yes, but we are not talking in theoretical here. Not
only is Tulowitzki one of the game’s best offensive players, but he plays good
defense at one of the most valuable positions in baseball, if not the most
valuable, at shortstop. I am not much of defensive metrics in producing usable
objective numbers, especially at a position like shortstop, but that is another
long discussion. Some might argue Giancarlo Stanton, who does not have a big
split like Troy Tulowitzki, or Jonathan Lucroy because you think pitch framing
is the most valuable asset in baseball (wait for my upcoming series on pitch
framing), and I think as the season progresses Stanton might make a good run.
Stanton has an OPS of .999 and a wOBA of .422 currently and plays right field,
which is also a very valuable position. I really think there is a fifty/fifty
shot at Stanton being named the MVP at year’s end.
American League Cy
Young Award: Starting Pitcher Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
This is probably the toughest race of all award races,
but I am going to go with Felix Hernandez by a hair over Masahiro Tanaka. They
are close in nearly all categories, with Tanaka leading in strikeouts per nine
innings and walks per nine innings, but Felix clobbers him in home runs per
nine innings, giving up 0.28 per nine innings as opposed to Tanaka’s 1.01 per
nine innings. The first argument against this is that Felix pitches in a more
pitcher-friendly park, which is true, but like the Tulowitzki argument, I do
not like normalizing park factors, especially with pitchers because they
actually play their games in these stadiums. If we were talking who is
theoretically the better pitcher, then that HR/9 rate might mean less, but we
are talking in reality. Hernandez also edges him in my favorite pitching
statistic, SIERA, with a SIERA of 2.42 to Tanaka’s 2.52. Someone is going to
take this as I do not like Masahiro Tanaka or I am magically biased to the
Seattle Mariners or something, but that is not that case. I really would not be
opposed to flipping a coin at this point because things are so close between
the two.
National League Cy
Young Award: Starting Pitcher Johnny Cueto (Reds)
In a somwhat easier race, the NL Cy Young belongs to
Johnny Cueto thus far. Cueto has been a killer on the mound, giving up only 5.4
hits per nine innings, which plays a part in his league-leading ERA of 1.88.
After 124.1 innings pitched, Cueto’s ERA+ sits at 195, which has the average
pitcher at 100, which can give you an idea how great Cueto has been for the
Cincinnati Reds this season. Although he only strikes out 8.83 per nine
innings, he does walk a low 2.10 batters per nine innings and only manages to
give up 0.65 home runs per nine innings. Adam Wainwright is a close second, but
it is not hairsplitting, like the AL Cy Young race, as he gives up one entire
hit more than Cueto per nine innings, despite having a good edge in walks per
nine innings, only walking 1.7 per nine innings to Cueto’s 2.1 per nine
innings. This is also a close race and there is a decent shot that Wainwright
will earn the award by year’s end, but for now Cueto is the man.
American League
Rookie of the Year: Starting Pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees)
I outlined the case for Tanaka for the Cy Young earlier,
so it should be no surprise that he will take the spot for AL RotY. The only
other contender is Chicago White Sox power slugger Jose Abreu. Abreu is having
a fantastic year, putting up an OPS of .953 and a wOBA of .401. With 25 home runs, Abreu would be the
American League Rookie of the Year in most years, just not this year with
Masahiro Tanaka’s domination. Tanaka has an ERA of 2.10, a K/9 of 9.88, a BB/9
of 1.40, and a HR/9 of 1.01. Like mentioned, those are strong Cy Young award
contender numbers, let alone Rookie of the Year numbers. One point beyond the
numbers is Jose Abreu’s lack of ability to make solid contact with anything
that is not pitched straight/flat into the strikezone. If you pitch to him
slightly out of the strike zone, or even around the edges, you have a good chance
of him not making contact and swinging at the pitch. I do not think Abreu can
make changes quick enough in the second half of the season to correct this, but
in the future it is possible. As for this year, Tanaka has shown little, if
any, weaknesses.
National League
Rookie of the Year: Shortstop Chris Owings (Diamondbacks)
Owings is essentially NL Rookie of the Year by default,
as there has not been anyone to really emerge from the pack of rookies in the
National League as we have seen with the American League. Cincinnati Reds
outfielder Billy Hamilton is a close second, with 34 stolen bases. It comes
down to how much you value shortstop over center field, which you should,
shortstop is the more difficult position. Not only does Owings play the tougher
position, but he has the better OPS at .771, wOBA at .336, and wRC+ of 109
compared to Hamilton’s OPS of .717, a wOBA of .315, and a wRC+ of 98. You can
go with Hamilton’s 2.9 fWAR over Owings’ 1.8 fWAR, but I just do not see
Hamilton’s speed value in addition to his bat beating Owings’ bat. At this
point we still have contenders to emerge because this is such a shallow field,
like Kevin Siegrist and Andrew Heaney. There has been so little in the NL
rookie field, that I honestly considered leaving this vacant, but decided to go
with someone, regardless of the strength of the candidates, as someone is going
to win this award.
Sunday, June 29, 2014
MLB Power Rankings 6/29/14
MLB Power Rankings
1. Oakland Athletics – The Athletics continue to be the kings of
baseball, putting up a run differential of +134, far ahead of the second place
spot (+52 is second). In their last ten, Oakland has been 8-2. They have to be
the favorites heading into the second half of the season.
2. Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers have taken a commanding lead in the
National League Central, posting a run differential of +46 and winning eight of
their last ten. They now have a 6.5 game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in
the NL Central and are the first team to reach 50 wins (now at 51). They are
not Oakland, but they are trending up.
3. Los Angeles Angels – After a disappointing season last year, the
Angels are looking like a surefire playoff team, even though they will not win
the American League West (Oakland). They are 8-2 in their past ten games and
have a run differential of +52, second best in the majors.
4. Los Angeles
Dodgers – It is only a matter
of time before the Dodgers take the lead in the National League West from all
indications. They are 7-3 in their last ten games and have a run differential
of +48, much better than the division leading San Francisco Giants. They are
unbelievable on the road, posting a road record of 26-16. They are certainly a
team trending upward.
5. Toronto Blue Jays – Despite going 4-6 in their last ten games,
the Toronto Blue Jays still possess a 1.5 game lead in a tough division and
still possess a run differential of +34, +25 more than the second place Baltimore
Orioles. A bad week, but with the trade deadline looming, they are gearing up
to seal the deal and win the American League East. I am not going to knock them
down further just yet.
6. Detroit Tigers – It seemed like yesterday when the Tigers and
the Royals were neck and neck for the American League Central lead, but the
Detroit Tigers have taken a 4.5 game lead in the division after going 8-2 in
their last ten games. They are +10 in run differential on the Royals, despite
their issues with right field, the bullpen, and Justin Verlander.
7. Seattle Mariners – Why is a team who is 7.5 games out of the
division league at number six? Well, they are playing very good baseball, with
a road record of 23-16. They spent the past ten games going 6-4, putting up a
run differential of +47, which would having them leading a few divisions in
baseball. If the playoffs started today, the Mariners would get a wild card
spot. Taijuan Walker also returns on Monday, so expect him to help the
Mariners, if he is not traded.
8. San Francisco
Giants – The Giants threw a
no-hitter this week, but continue to disappoint, dwindling the lead in their
division to the Dodgers, currently only one game ahead of the Los Angeles club.
They are 3-7 in the past ten games, with a run differential of +32, -16
compared to the Dodgers. Things are going south in San Francisco.
9. St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals have been very good as of
late, going 5-5 in their last five games, putting up a run differential of +24.
As for the bad news, they remain 6.5 out of the National League Central lead
and have Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia on the DL with Shelby Miller exiting a
game with back tightness. Wacha and Miller seem like short-term injuries, so it
is hard to point in which direction they are trending.
10. Kansas City Royals – What a disappointment the Royals have been
lately. After winning double digit straight games, they are 3-7 in their last
ten games. Their run differential has shrunk to +11. Royals General Manager
Dayton Moore better make some moves fast or else this team might keep sinking.
11. Washington
Nationals – While the Nationals
are tied for the National League East lead, it is just a matter of time they make
a claim to that crown solely, with a run differential +40 compared to the
Atlanta Braves. Bryce Harper’s rehab is going very well and he should be back
with the team fairly shortly. I would be surprised if they do not have a multi-game
lead in a couple weeks.
12. Atlanta Braves - The Braves baffle me a bit, as they remain
tied for the National League East lead, going 7-3 in their last ten. Their run
differential, however, is -1. That is not a number you see on a team that will
win a division. Run differential is fairly predictive, so that number would
indicate that the team will falter the NL East lead sooner rather than later.
13. Baltimore Orioles – Good week for Orioles fans, as the team now
trails the Toronto Blue Jays by just 1.5 games, however their run differential
stands at just +9, which would concern me if I were to think the Orioles could
make up ground and win the division. They are 6-4 in their last ten. If only
Dylan Bundy were ready this year, then I would have faith, but I am a doubter
for now.
14. Cincinnati Reds – Things are looking up a bit, Reds fans.
Despite being 7.5 back of the National League Central lead, the Reds had a hot
stretch, going 7-3 in their last ten games. Mesoraco and Votto may keep this
team afloat in a hunt for a NL Wild Card spot, as the Reds possess a run
differential of +18.
15. Cleveland Indians – Cleveland’s run differential has sunk
to -18, seemingly putting them out of the playoff hunt for now, despite Lonnie
Chisenhall and Michael Brantley performing out of this world. Starting pitching
has been a big problem for the Indians, having only one starter with an ERA+
over 100. They went 4-6 in their last ten games.
16. New York Yankees – Now that the bottom teams of baseball are
showing their true records, this spot has to go to the Yankees, who are two
games out of the American League East lead. They have gone 5-5 over their last
ten games and possess a bad run differential of -29. They can make some moves
in order to take a shot at the division league, but I do not think it can be
done with this roster
17. Pittsburgh Pirates – The good news: the Pittsburgh Pirates have
been hot over their last ten games going 7-3. The bad news: they have a run
differential of -12 in a tough division. Despite a 41-40 record, they are in
fourth place in the National League Central, and it is hard to see them
overtaking the Reds even, who have a run differential of +18, +30 better than
the Pirates.
18. New York Mets – The Mets?! Yes, the New York Mets have made
the leap on up, despite having an unlikely shot of making the playoffs. They
have been 6-4 over their past ten games, but they have put up a positive run
differential of +2. Maybe they should be buyers at the trade deadline, despite
being six games back.
19. Miami Marlins – The Marlins are two games ahead of the New
York Mets, but they have had a rough week, going 3-7 in their last ten games.
They are allowing an astonishing 355 runs, which is largely on the pitching
staff. They currently have a run differential of -4. They are out of the
playoff hunt and should not make the effort to buy this year, just hold steady
and wait, if anything.
20. Chicago White Sox – A bad 3-7 over their last ten games, the
White Sox are out of it despite Jose Abreu and Chris Sale. Their run
differential currently sits at a bad -35. Why are they ranked this high? Well,
it turns out that there are quite a few bad teams in baseball, some worse than
the White Sox.
21. Boston Red Sox – This is not the year Red Sox fans. The Sox
have been 4-6 over their previous ten games, putting up a run differential of
-36. They are seven games back, which seems like a difficult task, but maybe
Mookie Betts can save them, right? Maybe?
22. Minnesota Twins – Minnesota is in last place in the American
League Central, however their run differential is only -30 and they are nine
games back, which looks like cake compared to some of the other bad teams. They
have gone 4-6 in their last ten games.
23. Philadelphia
Phillies – Philly is 3-7 over
their last ten games with a run differential of -39. They are only seven out of
the National League East lead though!
24. Texas Rangers – It is time for Rangers General Manager Jon
Daniels to wave the white flag and surrender, as the team is an injury disaster
and will not make the playoffs. They are thirteen games out of the lead, with a
run differential of -56. They put up a bad 2-8 over the past ten games.
25. Chicago Cubs – Still rebuilding, but Arrieta has been good
and Dallas Beeler made a nice debut. While they are 15.5 out of the National
League Central lead, they are only -14 in run differential thanks to Anthony
Rizzo.
26. Houston Astros – Houston is still rebuilding. They are 16 out
of the lead and are 3-7 in their last ten, but their run differential is -54,
+2 better than the Texas Rangers!
27. Colorado Rockies – What happened? The Rockies are eleven games
out of first in the division, going 1-9 in their last ten. Their run
differential is only -20 though. Still, they must be punished for going 1-9 in
their last ten, so they are stuck at 27.
28. Arizona
Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks
are, of course, bad. Still have to wait another month before the trade deadline
deals that will almost assuredly be done. They have a run differential of -67
and a 5-5 record in their past ten games.
29. Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays are eleven games back with a run
differential of -42. They did however go 6-4 in their last ten. At least they
will have a good pick in the draft and get good assets for David Price.
30. San Diego Padres – The Padres has scored 240 runs this year, by
far the worst in the majors. They fired their General Manager on Sunday. They
are twelve games back with a run differential of -60. Last stop San Diego.
Saturday, June 28, 2014
MLB Prospect Weekly News & Notes (6/28/14)
MLB Prospect Weekly News
& Notes
- This week has been
mixed for Houston Astros prospects and fans, as starting pitcher Mark Appel has
shown some progression (or regression to the norm), but Carlos Correa fractured
his fibula on a slide into third, keeping him out for the remainder of the
season. Appel has a collective 5.40 ERA over his past two starts, with five
total strikeouts. This may sound horrendous, but when you compare it to his
previous three outings, allowing 17 earned runs in just 6.2 innings pitched, it
is progress, just not as fast as the Astros front office and fans wish. Prior
to his injury, shortstop Correa had an OPS of .926 on the season. Correa was
named to the Futures Game roster, but, of course, will not play. Starting
pitching prospect Mike Foltynewicz struggled on Thursday, giving up four earned
runs in five innings. High-A third baseman Rio Ruiz went ice cold this past
week, posting an OPS of .678 in 33 plate appearances, far below his season OPS
of .817. Although he has not started this week, keep an eye on AA pitching
prospect Kyle Smith, who is posting an 3.78 ERA on the season, displaying good
command, walking only 1.89 batters per nine innings and striking out 9.82
batters per nine innings.
- Mookie Betts was called
up to the major league Boston Red Sox today after posting an OPS of .869 in
AAA, with a wOBA north of .400, which is very good. The big issue here is that
some of his value comes from the position he plays, second base. He will be
playing the outfield for the Red Sox, which he can do, and it makes sense to a
degree as the Boston Red Sox outfield has been anemic offensively this year. A ton
of people love Betts bat and it will be interesting to see how he translates in
the next week. AA pitching prospect Henry Owens was selected to the 2014 MLB
Futures Game. This news came out the same day Owens had a rough outing in AA,
giving up four earned runs in six innings pitched. While starting pitcher Cody
Kukuk looked great in A ball, he has since struggled in High-A ball, posting an
8.33 ERA in 35.2 innings pitched. He has been really roughed up in his past two
starts, giving up ten earned runs in 6.1 innings pitched. I would be worried
about Kukuk, as he has been killed in every appearance so far in High-A. Second
baseman Sean Coyle has been impressive in AA this year, putting up an OPS of 1.024.
With Betts movie up, I would expect a call-up to AAA for Coyle anytime.
- The curious case of
Kris Bryant continues in AAA Iowa for the Chicago Cubs, as he has ten hits in
33 at bats, five of them being home runs. Yesterday, Bryant had a three hit
performance, raising his OPS for the week up to 1.427. He still has some
strikeout issues, but seems to be adjusting to AAA pitching, which is a good
sign. Bryant is still playing third base for some reason that is beyond me. Bryant
and teammate Javier Baez were both named to the Futures Game this week. Baez
has had a good week in AAA, posting an OPS of .780, higher than his season
average of .722. He showed some improvement in taking walks/striking out, raising
his walk percentage to 9.7% and lowering his strikeout rate to 29%. While those
still seem disappointing, baby steps with Baez and plate patience. According to
Theo Epstein, president of the Chicago Cubs, the Cubs are trying to “re-program”
the way Jorge Soler’s body moves to prevent future injury. Outfielder Soler
returned to Rookie ball this week, having an OPS of 1.667 in fifteen plate
appearances, which sounds impressive, but if he did not put up those numbers
rehabbing in R ball, it would have been a major disappointment. Cubs AAA second
baseman prospect Arismendy Alcantara had a great night last night, going 4-6
with one home run. Alcantara is putting up an OPS of .890 in AAA in 315 plate
appearances. With major league second baseman Darwin Barney’s struggles on the
season, Alcantara could (and should) be called up before year’s end. Reliever
prospect Zack Cates has been putting up encouraging numbers, with an ERA of
2.89 in 9.1 innings after being promoted to AA. This week has been a rough one
for Cates, putting three earned runs in four innings pitched. Cates gave up no
earned runs prior to this week. Starting pitcher Dallas Beeler was called up
this week and will start Saturday. Hunter Cervenka has quietly been pitching
well in relief in AA, posting an ERA of 2.87 in 31.1 innings pitched. He should
be promoted to AAA soon, but the Cubs front office is conservative on call-ups.
- On Sunday, Diamondbacks
pitching prospect Braden Shipley had one great day, striking out ten in seven
innings pitched. Reports indicate his changeup and curveball were killer
pitches alongside his easy plus fastball. Yesterday, Shipley could not get it
going, giving up eight earned runs and striking out zero in 3.1 innings
pitched. Although Shipley has an ERA of 4.97 in 29 innings with the High-A
affiliate, he shows flashes of potential, as seen on Sunday. There is some
concern that he is almost 22 ½ years of age and does not have High-A locked
down yet, but he shows enough to keep an eye on him and expect him to develop.
With the fastball, changeup, and curveball, we are looking at three likely plus
pitches at the least. Shipley made the Futures Game roster. Since being
promoted to AAA, starting pitching prospect Archie Bradley has struggled,
putting up an ERA of 5.18 in 24.1 innings pitched. The walk rate of 4.44 in
nine innings pitched is concerning in AAA, especially for the Diamondbacks top
prospect. Since being promoted to AAA, Jake Barrett has been mixed
performance-wise, alternating outings, allowing a home run in one outing, then allowing
no earned runs, then back to a single home run outing, then no earned runs. I
would not consider this bad news as it has been just four innings, so give him
time and he will make the big league club. Another interesting story for the
Diamondbacks farm system has been shortstop Nick Ahmed, who has an OPS of .829
in AAA this year. He has been hot this week, posting an OPS of 1.219 in 37
plate appearances. With Chris Owings and Didi Gregorius already taking up
shortstop spots, it is unclear if they will move Ahmed to a different position,
trade him, or perhaps trade Owings or Gregorius. Now that La Russa is the man
in charge, it is still unclear what this means for the Diamondbacks franchise.
- Washington Nationals
starting pitching prospect Lucas Giolito has been one of the success stories for
those who come back after a UCL injury and Tommy John surgery. The nearly
twenty year old Giolito has been a killer in A ball, with a K/9 of 10.04, a
BB/9 of 3.46, and an ERA of 2.30 in 54.2 innings pitched. He dazzled in six
innings on Thursday, striking out nine and giving up no earned runs. He was
named to the Futures Game and will likely be promoted to AA before the end of
the year. Everyone loves him and seems to think he will be a possible ace in
the major leagues before long. Starting pitching prospect A.J. Cole was promoted
to AAA yesterday after posting an ERA of 2.92 in 71 innings pitched. Cole gave
up an astonishing 0.13 HR/9 in AA. AA outfielder was named to the Futures Game
roster after putting up an OPS of .984 in 325 plate appearances. Taylor had
what was a down week for him, posting an OPS of .753 in twenty-eight plate appearances.
If the Washington Nationals can find a spot for him on their big league club,
he might be called up by the end of the year. I would be shocked if he is not
in the majors beginning in 2015.
- Top Cleveland Indians
prospect Francisco Lindor was the lone representative on the Futures Game
roster for the Indians. Despite struggling this year with an OPS of .770 in 319
plate appearances, Lindor is still considered one of the top prospects in all
of baseball and the top shortstop prospect in baseball by many. One reason for
this is his BB% and K% compared to someone like Javier Baez. On the year, Lindor
has a BB% of only 11%, but his K% is only 16%. Lindor has developed some pop,
hitting six home runs on the year, beating his home run totals in High-A and AA
last year combined. While it is only been three games, Lindor has had a good
week, putting up an OPS of 1.111. While old at twenty-seven years of age, reliever
Austin Adams has been fairly productive pitching in AAA for the Cleveland
Indians, putting up an ERA of 2.65 in 34 innings pitched. He really could be
called up by the Indians or be used as a trade chip to a team looking to add a
bullpen arm (there are many). Adams has given up one run since May 7, which is
pretty impressive.
- Let us talk about
Mariners top prospect Taijuan Walker. Since the last prospect news and notes,
Walker had one start in which he pitched nine innings, striking out eight,
walking one, and giving up no earned runs. After the game, Walker was quoted as
saying he is “back to feeling normal,” which may just be talk, but that mindset
is encouraging, especially with a top prospect like Walker. Walker’s status
with the Mariners organization is up for questioning, with the Mariners
seemingly in on Jeff Samardzija. I do not think it is likely he will be traded,
as he would have been traded for David Price in the offseason if General
Manager Jack Z. wanted to trade him. Perhaps with the team in the playoff hunt
the Mariners finally may make a move and if it is a big one, it will require
Walker. Two prospects for Seattle were named to the Futures Game: outfielder Gabby
Guerrero and third baseman D.J. Peterson. Guerrero being named to the roster is
a bit of surprise, as he has not had the best year, putting up an OPS of .794
in High-A ball. Guerrero has been ice cold this past week, putting up a poor
OPS of .524 in six games. After putting up an OPS of .997 in A ball, D.J.
Peterson was promoted to AA on Tuesday, where he has played two games. He has
had two hits and a walk in nine plate appearances, but that is a sample size
too small to even think about. AA pitching prospect Victor Sanchez did not have
a good week, giving up four earned runs in 6.1 innings in one start and four
earned runs in four innings in the other start. His strikeout numbers were down
for both games to four and two, respectively.
- Time for your weekly
Joey Gallo update, Texas Rangers fans. Over the past week, third baseman Gallo
has put up a disappointing (yes, disappointing for him) OPS of .833 with three
home runs. The really bad news is the BB% and the K%. He took no walks this
week and struck out 58.3%. That is seriously concerning, but that is the type
of player Gallo is, a swing for the fences without regard-type. Historically
guys with such poor plate patience do not make it, but Gallo has elite power, probably
the best in the minor leagues (sorry Javier Baez). Rangers outfielder Nick
Williams heated up since making his High-A debut on Tuesday, posting an OPS of
1.218 in 13 appearances before being placed on the seven day DL for an
undisclosed injury. The expensive Jairo Beras had an above average week in A
ball amid a disastrous season. For the year, Beras has posted an OPS of .552,
but has posted an OPS of .750, which is a small sample, but perhaps Beras is
finally trending in the right direction. Seventeen year old starting pitching
prospect Marcos Diplan has quietly been tearing up Rookie ball, putting up an
ERA of 1.52 in 23.2 innings pitched. He has had a relatively tight leash on
innings pitched, often going out for four or five innings, but he strikes out
four, five, or seven in that short amount of time. Diplan is definitely a guy
to keep an eye on.
- Baltimore Orioles starting pitching prospect
Dylan Bundy was at one time considered the best pitching prospect in all of
baseball, and even the best overall prospect by some. An UCL injury and Tommy
John surgery derailed that, but since coming back and rehabbing in Low-A ball,
Bundy has looked like his old self. In three starts, he has twenty-two
strikeouts, three walks, and one earned run in fifteen innings pitched. His
fastball has been sitting in the 91-93 mph range. He is still throwing a solid
curveball and his cutter sat between 86-89 in his most recent outing. Dylan
Bundy will be an ace on a major league team in two years. Both the Rays and
Cubs should use Samardzija or Price to try and get him before his prospect hype
gets back into the stratosphere. Outfielder Dariel Alvarez and starting pitcher
Hunter Harvey both were named to the Futures Game roster. Alvarez has been
solid in AA this year, putting up an OPS of .825, but he has only drawn walks
2.5% of the time and is already twenty-five years of age. Nineteen year old
Hunter Harvey has just been a force in A ball with a 2.98 ERA over 66.1 innings
pitched. In his most recent outing on Monday, Harvey struck out seven and gave
up one earned run in six innings pitched.
- AA pitcher Robert
Stephenson was the lone selection for the Cincinnati Reds in the Futures Game.
Stephenson has been mediocre to say the least this year, putting up an ERA of
4.17 in 82 innings pitched. He also has a fairly concerning BB/9 of 4.50. The
past week has been mixed for Stephenson going seven innings, striking out
seven, and only allowing three runs, then going five, striking out five, and allowing
four earned runs. If anything, Stephenson is trending sideways, which has to be
worrying for a top prospect in a club’s farm system. In semi-prospect news, the
Reds signed Raisel Iglesias, a 5’11” Cuban pitcher. His fastball touches 96 and
his breaking ball sits in the 76-81 range via Ben Badler. Some expect him to start, but with the height, I think
it is more likely that he is headed to the bullpen.
- Catcher Kevin Plawecki
and starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard were the two selections for the Futures Game
for the New York Mets. Plawecki was promoted to AAA on Thursday after putting
up an OPS of .864 in AA on the year. He has had eight plate appearances in AAA,
so I am going off of a tremendously small sample size in analyzing two games. While
Plawecki’s OPS of .821 in AAA sounds impressive so far, you have to keep in
mind that the Mets AAA club is in the Pacific Coast League where hitters can
put up video game numbers, so that number is about average to above average,
not something to rave over quite yet, especially with a miniscule sample size. On
the other hand, Noah Syndergaard’s ERA of 5.35 in AAA sounds horrible, but it
is a hitter’s league, so I would not put too much stock in either hitters or
pitchers’ numbers in the Pacific Coast League. Since being promoted to AA,
Brandon Nimmo has not set the world on fire offensively, posting an OPS of .714
in thirty plate appearances. Nimmo still displays great plate patience, walking
20% of the time, while striking out only 16.7% of the time. In High-A, Nimmo
was walked 17.9% of the time and struck out 18.3% of the time. Thought Nimmo
might make the Futures Game roster, but he did not.
- The two individuals
named to the Futures Game for the Phillies were shortstop J.P. Crawford and third
baseman Maikel Franco. Crawford was just promoted to High-A ball last week and
has struggled since, putting up an OPS of .686 in 40 plate appearances. In 267
plate appearances in A ball, Crawford put up an OPS of .804. What is especially
concerning with him is his BB% and K%. He gets walked 10% of the time and
strikes out 27.5% of the time in High-A, but then again, small sample size, as
he was literally 1:1 in BB/K in A ball. Franco has spent the entire season in
AAA, but has looked pretty bad, posting an OPS of .596. The past week has not
been kind to him, as he has put up an OPS of .405 in his past seven games. Someone
who made the Futures Game roster last year, pitcher Jesse Biddle, continues to
struggle in AA. On the season, Biddle has an ERA of 5.03 and was given a “mental
break” by Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and is now listed as day-to-day.
- The Colorado Rockies
had one person selected to the Futures Game, SS Rossell Herrera. Herrera has
spent the entire year in High-A ball, putting up a mediocre OPS of .706. He has
only had one game where he has homered the entire year, hitting two home runs,
creating a power surge for the rest of the season for Herrera. High-A catcher William
Swanner has struggled all year in High-A, posting an OPS of .743. He spent all
of last season in High-A and put up very similar numbers, so he is not
progressing like he should. Swanner has been on a hot streak over the past
week, though, putting up an OPS of .919 in seven games. It probably is too
small of a sample size to analyze too seriously, but he is trending in the
right direction. Last year’s third overall pick Jon Gray continues to perform
fairly well, putting up an ERA of 3.77 in 74 innings pitched. Last Friday was
not Gray’s best outing as he was roughed up in five innings pitched, giving up
five earned runs, but striking out seven. He is still performing better than
the pitcher chose two spots ahead of him, Mark Appel.
- Marten Gasparini just
turned seventeen and is already playing in Rookie ball for the Kansas City
Royals. The highest paid European free agent ever, Gasparini is putting up an
OPS of .642 in 27 plate appearances. Two points on this. 27 plate appearances
in a career is certainly small sample size. He also just turned seventeen. The
only other seventeen year old more advanced than Gasparini at this point is
Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias. Christian Binford was the lone person named to the
Futures Game roster, putting up an ERA of 2.35 in 76.2 innings pitched in
High-A ball. Binford was hit up in his last start, giving up three earned runs
in 6.2 innings pitched, but striking out six in the process.
- The aforementioned pitching
prospect Julio Urias was named to the Futures Game roster, alongside shortstop Corey
Seager. Urias is seventeen years old and playing well in High-A ball, which is
unbelievable really. In 49.2 inning in High-A, Urias has an ERA of 3.44. He has
a plus fastball and a plus curveball at seventeen. I cannot overemphasize how
impressive this is. Shortstop Corey Seager has spent the entire season in
High-A, putting up an OPS of 1.010, which is also impressive. Seager is likely
to end up at third base, so I am not sure why they are playing with him at
shortstop. The past week has been slightly above average for Seager, putting up
an OPS of 1.096 during the seven game stretch. Joc Pederson was snubbed from
the Futures Game, despite hitting 1.005 in 332 plate appearances in AAA. Pederson
was just placed on the seven day DL for a shoulder injury. All three are a big
part of the Dodgers future plans.
- Braves pitcher Lucas
Sims has been good at times in High-A ball, putting up an ERA of 4.71 in 84
innings pitched. On Thursday, Sims had an impressive performance, striking out
six in seven innings, allowing no earned runs.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
Vanderbilt Takes Home the 2014 College World Series
Vanderbilt Takes Home the 2014
College World Series
After getting smoked by Virginia’s offense on Tuesday,
June 24, 2014, The Vanderbilt Commodores came back to win the College World
Series on Wednesday night, two games to one. This is Vanderbilt’s first College
World Series win in school history, despite a notable number of baseball alumni
including Sonny Gray, David Price, and Mark Prior. In the deciding game three,
Vanderbilt starter Carson Fulmer came up big against the dominating Virginia
offense, striking out five and giving up only one earned run in 5.1 innings
pitched. While that may not sound impressive, doing so against a lineup
featuring Mike Papi, Derek Fisher, Joe McCarthy, and John La Prise is really
something to be impressed by. Pitcher Hayden Stone, also of Vanderbilt, pitched
very well, striking out four Virginia batters in 1.2 innings pitched. Adam
Ravenelle kept Virginia scoreless as he closed out the final two innings,
allowing no earned runs.
This
pitching performance by Vanderbilt has been the constant for the team all,
season, being lead, ironically, by their inconsistent ace Tyler Beede. Beede
pitched game two for the Commodores, giving up six earned runs in 6.2 innings
pitched, striking out only four. The real pitching star of this College World Series
also pitched that night, but for the Virginia Cavaliers. Brandon Waddell
pitched a complete game in game two, striking out five and only allowing one
earned run. This night was lead by hit after hit for the Virginia offense,
producing thirteen hits total, including three by Kenny Towns and three by Joe
McCarthy. Vanderbilt’s real MVP of the series, outfielder John Norwood, had two
hits Tuesday, driving in one run, and scoring the other run himself. Outside of
Norwood, it was all Virginia on Tuesday. Tuesday produced no home runs for
either team.
Game one
was an offensive nailbiter, as Vanderbilt edged Virginia nine to eight.
Virginia’s ace, Nathan Kirby was roughed up by Vanderbilt’s offense, walking
five and giving up five earned runs in only 2.1 innings pitched. Vanderbilt starter Walker Buehler also disappointed
in the first game of the College World Series, giving up five earned runs in
three innings pitched. Vanderbilt batters only had six hits total on the day,
but seven walks put enough runners on base to win the game. Only Tyler Campbell
had more than one hit, two on the day. Virginia’s biggest threat on offense,
Mike Papi went hitless for the day, also failing to draw a walk, despite messy
pitching. Second baseman Daniel Pinero and shortstop Branden Cogswell both
performed well, having three hits each, with Cogswell drawing one walk. Despite
an offensive battle, game one featured no home runs either.
The hit
that changed everything and sealed Vanderbilt’s fate as victors in the 2014
College World Series came in game three from John Norwood in the top of the
eighth inning, as he homered off of Virginia reliever Nick Howard, giving
Vanderbilt the go-ahead run, which would be the last run produced in game
three. Norwood made up two of Vanderbilt’s three runs on the day, reaching
second on an error, then scoring on a single by Vince Conde. Perhaps the box
score does not indicate it as well, but game three will go down as an all-time
classic in the books of college baseball, giving us nine innings of tension,
followed by a feeling of celebration unless you were a Virginia Cavaliers fan,
player, or coach.
Dansby
Swanson, second baseman for the Vanderbilt Commodores, was named the College
World Series Most Outstanding Player. Swanson had three hits and two walks
against the Virginia Cavaliers.
Freaky No-Hitters
Freaky No-Hitters
Yesterday, June 25, 2014, Tim Lincecum of the San
Francisco Giants threw his second career no-hitter, both of which occurred
against the same team, the San Diego Padres, within one calendar year. Only two
pitchers have thrown two no-hitters, have at least two Cy Young Awards, and
have at least two World Series Championships; Sandy Koufax and Lincecum. The
two also have another interesting connection, both were dominant for only a
short period of time, albeit for very different reasons. Koufax pitched twelve
seasons, dominating in the latter half of his career, despite having arthritis problems
that would eventually lead to him retiring at the age of thirty. Many consider
Koufax the greatest pitcher of all-time, if not at least one of the greatest of
all-time. Lincecum, currently thirty, has gone the opposite direction, joining
the Giants in 2007 and having great seasons until 2012. While his 2008 and 2009
Cy Young Award-winning seasons are absolutely dominating (ERA+ of 168 in 2008
and 171 in 2009, with a K/9 over 10 both years), he probably will not be
remembered a tenth as well as Koufax in the future. Koufax was great for six seasons
(and quite possibly the best pitcher in the game during that stretch) and good
for four others. Lincecum was great for two seasons and good for three others.
While
the obvious objection is Tim Lincecum is only thirty years old, he has been on a
downward trend since 2011, posting not league average seasons, but outright bad
seasons. His ERA+ in 2012 was 68, with an ERA of 5.18 in 186 innings pitched. That
season also saw his walk rate spike, going from 3.6 in 2011 to 4.4 in 2012. At
the time it was considered that it was just a fluke bad season for Lincecum,
but 2013 and 2014 concur with 2012. Lincecum’s ERA+ in 2013 was 78 and is
currently at 77 in 2014 (and that is including his no-hitter yesterday). Keep
in mind that an ERA+ of 100 is league average. So why exactly has Tim Lincecum
thrown two no-hitters in two of his three worst seasons in his career? This may
surprise some, but there is no real objective answer here. Is it just mere
luck? Is nature on his side? Is it the work of God? A no-hitter, or even a
perfect game, does not necessarily indicate anything other than a pitcher had a
very good day and pitched well.
In 2012,
Phillip Humber threw a perfect game for the Chicago White Sox, striking out
nine in just 96 pitches. That year Humber posted an ERA+ of 66. Humber currently
struggles on the Oakland Athletics AAA team. In 2010, Edwin Jackson threw a
no-hitter for the Arizona Diamondbacks, walking eighth batter, even hitting one
batter with a pitch, but accomplished the feat after 149 pitches. Jackson was
traded to the Chicago White Sox later that season, posting an ERA+ of 82 with
the Arizona Diamondbacks and 95 total for the 2010 season. On Mother’s Day in
2010, Twenty-six year old Dallas Braden of the Oakland Athletics pitched a
perfect game, striking out six in the process of throwing 109 pitches. Braden posted
an ERA+ of 117 that year. Three games into the 2011 season he left with a
shoulder injury and never pitched another inning again. On July 10, 2009,
struggling fifth starter Jonathan Sanchez pitched a no-hitter for the San
Francisco Giants, walking none, making it one of the rare no-hitters where only
an error stopped it from being a perfect game. For that 2009 season, Sanchez
posted an ERA+ of 100, exactly league average. He followed that year up with a
pretty good 2010, posting an ERA+ of 127, allowing a career low 6.6 hits per
nine innings. Sanchez’s 2011 was disappointing prior to his foot injury that
happened mid-season, posting an ERA+ of 82. 2012 and 2013 saw limited innings
for Sanchez because he was just such a poor pitcher, posting an ERA+ of 53 in
2012 and 31 in 2013. He is currently struggling with the Chicago Cubs AAA team.
In his second year in the major leagues, 1999, Eric Milton pitched a no-hitter
for the Minnesota Twins, leading to him having his best career major league
year with an ERA+ of 113. Milton struggled in mediocrity, with a career ERA of 4.99,
until he retired in 2009.
Of
course, on the flip side of the coin, tons of all-time MLB greats have pitched
no-hitters or perfect games. Randy Johnson, Cy Young, Addie Joss, Nolan Ryan, and
Tom Seaver among the endless list of Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers
who have completed the task. Lincecum is more likely to be grouped in with the
Humber, Braden, and Sanchez, among the many that have thrown no-hitters or
perfect games at this point. His peak was phenomenal, but it was only two seasons.
Randy Johnson had more than two phenomenal seasons. Cy Young had a ton of phenomenal
seasons. Nolan Ryan had a ton of phenomenal seasons. Could Lincecum join that
second group of Hall of Famers still? It is possible, but unlikely. Lincecum is
and has struggled seemingly every other start in the past few seasons. His last
start before the no-hitter had him give up four earned runs in six innings. That
is not a one off thing for Lincecum this season or for 2012 or 2013. He has
clearly lost a step, as he is giving up more walks per nine, less strikeouts
per nine, and more home runs per nine these past few years than he did during
his glory years. Way back in 2008 and 2009, it was talked about how his
delivery would impact the longevity of his career and it appears it has. From
time to time these days, however we do get glimpses of the sure thing that was
Tim Lincecum years ago. These glimpses appear to be nothing more than just
that, glimpses, not signs of recovering into the pitcher he once was. It would
take a herculean improvement in the years to come to be truly compared to whom
many are comparing him to after yesterday’s performance, Sandy Koufax, which is
unlikely. While he may never be that killer arm once again, two no-hitters
against the same team in a calendar year is still a great accomplishment. The
others to accomplish such a feat are Virgil Trucks, Johnny Vander Meer
(no-hitters in back-to-back starts), Allie Reynolds, Nolan Ryan, and Roy
Halladay. A mixed group in terms of overall career trajectory, regardless
Lincecum joined a very rare club Wednesday afternoon.
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
Where Is The Real Justin Verlander?
Where Is Justin Verlander?
When discussing the faults of the Detroit Tigers this season, many bring
up the bullpen, which undoubtedly plays a part in their failures this season,
or shortstop issues until Eugenio Suarez arrived, but one major factor is
Justin Verlander pitching like a back of the rotation starter. Just three years
ago, Verlander won the American League Cy Young Award and the American League
Most Valuable Player Award, the latter of which has only been accomplished by
twenty-four pitchers in history. During that 2011 season, Verlander posted an
ERA of 2.40, ERA+ of 172, and a SIERA of 2.98. For clarity, SIERA is a modified
form of ERA that takes into account strikeouts and walks among other things
that only the pitcher controls. All three of those statistics are extremely
impressive and justify the awards Verlander received that year (though many
debate the MVP award). Now that we are post the point in the season where one
may waive away small sample size, Verlander has posted an ERA of 4.82 in 104.2
innings pitched, resulting in an ERA+ of 86. Walks per nine are at a career
high (3.6), while strikeouts per nine are at a career low (6.6). What has
exactly happened to Justin Verlander, who was considered the best pitcher in
all of baseball at one point in time?
The statistics that begin to put the pieces of the puzzle
together are those just mentioned, walks per nine (BB/9) and strikeouts per
nine (K/9). Strikeouts and walks play a big role in a pitcher’s performance and
are linked to every statistic used to measure their performance (ERA, ERA+,
WHIP, SIERA, etc.) While his 2011 award winning season was his most complete,
Verlander actually achieved his career high in K/9 back in 2009, with 10.1
strikeouts per nine. 2010, another good year for Verlander, saw his K/9 drop
fairly significantly down to 8.8 strikeouts per nine. His MVP and Cy Young
season, 2011, had that number rise to 9.0, so essentially one strikeout per
inning pitched. The following year, 2012, was absolutely identical to 2011, as
he posted a K/9 of 9 once again. 2013 saw a slight tick downward, as his K/9
fell to 8.9. This year, that K/9 number has absolutely cratered to 6.6
strikeouts per nine innings. How exactly does a MVP winning pitcher see his K/9
fall to such lows at the age of 31? Looking at the other side of the coin, walks
per nine have also changed dramatically throughout the years for Verlander. That
2009 season where Verlander posted his best K/9, he gave up 2.4 walks per nine
innings. BB/9 increased a fair amount in the 2010 season, walking 2.8 per nine
innings. In the 2011 MVP season, it dropped down to an amazing 2.0 walks per
nine innings. 2012 saw his BB/9 rise to 2.3, nothing to panic about as it is
still a really good number. 2013 is where the concern grows, as Verlander
posted a BB/9 of 3.1.Verlander’s 2014 BB/9 currently sits at 3.6, his second
highest mark in his career for a season (behind his poor 2008’s 3.9 BB/9). It
should alarm one to see BB/9 increase by 1.6 and K/9 decrease 2.4 in just three
years.
There are several things you could point to for these
changes. Perhaps the change in the strikeouts per nine is due to a velocity drop.
The following is a line graph looking at Justin Verlander’s maximum average velocity
on his fastball throughout the years.
Average Maximum Fastball Velocity over the Course of
His Career
There are a few things worth noting on this graph. Verlander’s
maximum fastball velocity on average is at its lowest in 2008 and 2014, his two
worst years statistically, failing to break 100 mph. His most successful
seasons, from 2009 to 2012, show his fastball consistently above 100 mph for
the most part. The two outliers from those years, both below 100 mph on
average, were in October 2009 and March of 2011, where the sample size is 83
and 73 respectively, thus making us able to dismiss those points as small
sample size. At this point, there is mere correlation between maximum fastball
velocity and the poor 2014 season. This leads us to the next point of how often
is he throwing his four-seam fastball now compared to the glory years of 2009
to 2012.
Fastball Usage as a Percentage
Verlander appears to use the four-seam fastball less and
less since 2009. While it may not appear to be much of a difference, he has
thrown the fastball for 55.21% of his pitches in June, the highest percentage
of fastballs thrown by Verlander this year. The entire year of 2009 saw him
throw his fastball at least 64.94% of the time (July) and as high as 70.85% of
the time (September). In 2010, Verlander broke the 55.21% barrier in four of
the six months pitched. In 2011, he broke that 55.21% barrier in six of eight
months pitched. In the last of his great years, he broke that 55.21% barrier in
five of seven months pitched. His fastball usage as a percentage in the four
months of 2014 pitched is 53.33% in March, 54.08% in April, 53.20% in May, and
55.21% in June. While the usage drop is not as great as expected and not indicative
of Verlander’s issues on its own, it leads one to wonder how much his fastball
was a pitch that struck batters out during that 2009-2012 span, as he it
appears he is getting less people out perhaps with a lesser usage of the now
slower fastball.
Whiff Percentages for Verlander’s Fastball
The above chart looks at Verlander’s fastball’s whiff percentage,
which is exactly what it sounds like, the number of pitches swung and missed on
by the batter expressed as a percentage. One quick note on the graph, the October
2011 point is not a victim of small sample size, as the sample size (number of
pitches thrown and swung and missed on) was 216, which is down from the average
month, but nothing I would label small sample size, just a bit of an outlier.
Another note is that this is just whiff percentages, not based on fastball
usage as a percentage at all. 2009, Verlander’s career year in strikeouts per
nine, produced a dramatic increase in the whiff percentages going from 7.6% of his
fastballs producing swings and misses in 2008 to over 11% of his fastballs
producing swings and misses in 2009. 2010 to 2012 produced slightly less swing
and misses and a slightly lower K/9 rate. 2013 is in line with those previous
seasons, as 10.62% of his fastballs resulted in a swing and miss. Although 2013
was a relatively down season for Verlander, one must remember that his K/9 rate
only dropped from 9.0 in 2012 to 8.9 in 2013, so these whiff percentages on the
fastball are in line with strikeouts per nine innings. His average whiff
percentage on the fastball this season is 6.9%, dramatically down from the
10.62% we saw the previous year. This should lead one to the conclusion that
Verlander has slightly cut back on his fastball, not only due to the drop in
velocity, but also due to the drop in whiff percentages.
While the fastball is part of the issue regarding the
higher K/9 rate this season, other pitches should be thoroughly investigated,
starting with Verlander’s slider.
Average Maximum Slider Velocity over the Course of His
Career
As you see, Verlander’s slider reached its peak average
maximum velocity, 91.57 mph, in 2009, the year he posted his career record 10.1
strikeouts per nine innings. Since 2010 that slider velocity has been fairly
consistent, even including this year (with the exception of April 2012, which
saw a fairly dramatic dip over a sample size of 50, which is too big to dismiss
as small sample size, as the slider is a secondary pitch). Where the
interesting part comes in is in the usage of the slider as a percentage of the
pitches Verlander throws.
Slider Usage as a Percentage
Verlander’s slider is used about 2.6% of the time he
throws a pitch in 2009 and has been steadily increasing in terms of usage as a
percentage since then. During his MVP season, it topped out as 11.4% of his
pitches in July 2011. The 2012 and 2013 seasons showed a fairly large increase
in its usage, but the 2014 numbers have been off the chart, especially lately. During
the month of June 2014, the slider has made up 21.17% of his pitches, a career
high. It is somewhat baffling why its usage has increased when you look at the
whiff percentages on Verlander’s slider.
Whiff Percentages for Verlander’s Slider
Not only has the swing and miss percentage for his slider
not improved, it has actually gotten worse this year, despite its usage
increasing as a percentage of his total pitches. Notice the Y-Axis labeling
ranges from 0 to 100, so minor increases may, in fact, be large changes in
swing and misses. In 2009, roughly 20.5% of the sliders Verlander threw
resulted in a swing in miss. This fell to 16.33% in 2010, then 12.56% in 2011,
followed by 19.43% in 2012, then 17.86% in 2013, so a fairly wide variance throughout
those seasons regarded as good or great. This year, 2014, his slider has a
swing and miss percentage of 10.01%, a career low. One interesting note is
Verlander’s June 2014, as his slider has made up a career high of 21.17% of his
pitches, but has only had a whiff percentage of 5.8%. Why Detroit Tigers
pitching coach Jeff Jones or manager Brad Ausmus has let the high usage of an ineffective
pitch continue is beyond me. Perhaps they think he can work through it, but it
is perplexing to see a massive increase in the pitch being used in terms of a
percentage while making guys swing and miss only 5.8% of the time.
Looking at other pitches, Verlander’s curveball has been
consistent in regards to velocity, usage as a percentage, and whiff
percentages, so nothing noteworthy in regards to his curveball. There is a
slight change in regards to differences in his changeup over the years,
however.
Average Maximum Changeup Velocity over the Course of
His Career
Changeup Usage as a Percentage
Whiff Percentages for Verlander’s Changeup
The first note in the average maximum velocity graph is
Justin Verlander’s changeup in 2009, the year he posted a career high in K/9.
The velocity of his changeup in 2009 is a career low, yet he managed to set the
bar for career K/9. How could this happen exactly? As you see with the second
graph, his changeup was used as a career low in terms of percentage of
changeups thrown, making up an unweighted 9.25%. In 2009, 19.54% of the
changeups Verlander threw resulted in a swing and miss. So despite the velocity
being lower than Verlander’s career average, it did not hurt him as badly due
to a lower usage rate in terms of it making up a percentage of pitches thrown
and a high whiff percentage. Skipping ahead to his 2011 MVP & Cy Young
season, Verlander’s changeup’s velocity increased to a career high 90.16 mph.
That 2011 also resulted in a spike in the changeup being used in terms of the
percentage of pitches thrown, making up 15.96% of the pitches thrown by
Verlander. That year produced a fairly high whiff percentage from his changeup,
resulting in whiff percentage of 23.02%. Both good years regarding the
changeup, but when we leap ahead to this year, 2014, we see a bit of a decline.
Verlander’s overall maximum velocity on his changeup in 2014 is 88.37 mph, the
lowest since the 2009 season where he set his career best K/9. The reason why
it is not as successful in 2014 is due to the higher pitch usage in terms of a
percent, 14%, as compared to 2009, and a massively decreasing whiff percentage,
currently sitting at just 16.18% of changeups being swung and missed on. A
decrease in whiff percentage on the changeup by 6.84% is fairly significant and
is yet another piece in the puzzle that is Justin Verlander’s decline.
Average maximum velocity, pitch usage as a percentage, and
whiff percentages all seem to have a correlation in the fall of Verlander’s
strikeout percentage or K/9. [url=http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/5/8/4313020/predicting-strikeouts-using-velocity-and-whiff]Blake
Murphy[/url] ran regressions using pitchers who threw a qualified amount of
pitches from 2006 to 2012, using strikeout rate as the control, then looked at
several variables, including velocity and whiff percentage. His results find
that whiff percentage has the best link in regards to variance in strikeouts,
either as an overall percentage or K/9.
Comparing Whiff Percentage to Strikeout Rate
As thoroughly discussed, Verlander’s whiff percentages
are down across the board, with the exception of his curveball, which has seen
essentially no change from previous seasons in either direction. He also
combines whiff percentage, first strike rate, and fastball velocity and find
that it has a slightly stronger correlation to strikeout rate than just whiff
percentage alone. Correlation is not necessarily causation, but strong bonds
should be noted. Murphy fails to look at the velocity of pitches other than the
fastball, which might help us establish a stronger bond had slider and changeup
velocity been used as variables. One other note regarding Murphy’s results is
the relatively low R2 value of fastball velocity, 0.180. While this
does not eliminate a correlation between fastball velocity and strikeout rate
or K/9, it does weaken the claim, even though the common sense (and perhaps
lazy) thing to do would be to notice Verlander’s weaker numbers, including
strikeouts, and also the decreased velocity of his fastball, among his other
pitches and try to make some sort of strong claim just from that alone. The
conclusion for the K/9 drop still comes down to whiff percentage and velocity,
alongside pitch usage as a percentage, as throwing weaker pitches that guys rarely
swing and miss on more frequently result in a drop in strikeouts.
None of this has addressed another perplexing issue
regarding Verlander, his ever rising walks per nine innings, or BB/9, currently
sitting at 3.6. Let us take a look at release points and strikezone plots for
some of Justin Verlander’s most recent outings in hope that it may give us some
insight into his command and control now, and then compare it to previous
years.
Release Point from Last Outing
Where Pitches Landed in Last Outing
Release Point from 6/16/14 Outing
Where Pitches Landed in 6/16/14 Outing
Release Point from 6/11/14 Outing
Where Pitches Landed in 6/11/14 Outing
Only one of these outings can be described as successful,
and that is his most recent outing, the 6/21/14 game against the Cleveland
Indians. The release points in all three outings are not what you see in an ace
pitcher having a good day. Even in the last outing, which can be described as
good by any qualification (Seven innings pitched, eight strikeouts, two earned
runs), the release points are a bit too spread apart, almost in a line
formation, as opposed to a bunching, or what should be as close to a single
release point as possible. It should be noted that he gave up one walk in the
6/21/14 outing, two walks in the 6/16/14 outing, and four walks in the 6/11/14
outing. Now let us look at three games from the 2011 season where he only gave
up two walks per nine innings.
Release Point from 9/2/11 Outing
Where Pitches Landed in 9/2/11 Outing
Release Point from 8/6/11 Outing
Where Pitches Landed in 8/6/11 Outing
Release Point from 6/30/11 Outing
Where Pitches Landed in 6/30/11 Outing
Verlander’s 9/2/11 outing resulted in one walk, the
8/6/11 outing resulted in two walks, and the 6/30/11 outing resulted in two
walks. I chose the dates as ones that just looked average for his 2011 season,
picking no games where Verlander walked zero or where he walked four, the most
in a single game that season. The differences in the release points between the
year 2011 and 2014 should be pretty apparently, as in 2014 pitches are no
longer bunched together in a circle when released, which you would see from
most staff aces, but now are released in varying positions in a diagonal motion.
There are other things in pitch mechanics I will not go into in this article,
but the release point of a pitcher should be somewhat consistent, not what we
have seen in Verlander’s last three outings in 2014. In regards to the
strikezone plot, or where the pitches landed, Verlander’s command is not quite
as good, but there is not much of a difference there. The 6/11/14 game plot has
a tremendous number of called balls, but then again, the 6/30/11 plot also
features a similar amount of called balls. So far evidence does not really show
much of a change in command, but one may point out the small sample size of
just three games from two different seasons, which is valid as time prohibits
me from posting every graph from both seasons, if not all seasons in his career
and analyzing them.
Zachary D. Rymer points out an interesting statistic regarding Verlander’s
fastball control. In 2009, his K/9 record year, 22% of his fastballs were in
the strikezone. His 2011 MVP season had 15.2% of the fastballs in the
strikezone. This spiked to 23% in 2013, followed by a massive drop of only
12.7% of Verlander’s fastballs being in the strikezone. That should be
concerning to Verlander, the Detroit Tigers, and fans. So far this year,
Verlander has only had 58 called strikes or swings and misses on his slider. Similarly, only 135 changeups this year have resulted in a called strike or a swing and miss. So while I may not be able to explain exactly why Verlander is
walking so many people, he is and the numbers indicate a concerningly small
percentage of fastballs, sliders, and changeups are either called strikes or
swinging and missing strikes (the latter of which goes back to the whiff
percentage).
Going
back to the beginning, we are reminded that is having a bad year, with an ERA
of 4.82, 68th among qualified pitchers, behind the likes of Edinson
Volquez, Travis Wood, and Jorge de la Rosa. This is not a knock on these
pitchers, but rather the type of pitcher who he should be compared to. A 4/5-type
starter in an above average rotation is what Verlander is performing like this
year. Verlander’s SIERA,
also known as Skill-Interactive ERA, this year is 4.52, the highest it has been
since his first full season in Major League Baseball. It has a similar scale
system to ERA, so a 4.52 is pretty bad. It also indicates that his ERA or
performance this year is not unlucky, but in line with his skill this season. That
statistic alone indicates nothing beyond this year, just this year. As for what
Verlander’s future as a starting pitcher in MLB is I am not sure. He could make
mechanical changes, leading to higher velocity and an increased whiff rate,
which would help him out tremendously.Just this month, Justin Verlander was quoted as saying “My fastball velocity,I'm not seeing a hundred, but it's sitting as high as it ever has....the stuff's there.” That has to worry fans of Verlander or the Tigers organization
that he sees nothing wrong, when there are quite a number of red flags as I have
pointed out and “the stuff” does not appear to be there anymore, or at least
this season. The question of can Verlander rebound is one that is difficult to answer. For every great pitcher that has dropped off abnormally young, like Verlander, they are often accompanied by injuries. Dwight Gooden is perhaps similar, having such a sudden drop-off, but that may be attributed to his drug usage. Rick Ankiel just fell apart overnight, but he was not a great pitcher like Verlander. Perhaps age thirty-one is where Verlander's arm had enough innings and is showing some serious troubles. Perhaps it is just a bad season and he will rebound. At this point in time, it is too hard to say.
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