Jeff Samardzija Does What Johnny Cueto Cannot

Courtesy of Deadspin

6/21/14 Minor League News & Notes for the Week

6/21/14 Minor League News & Notes for the Week

- It has been a very newsworthy week for Chicago Cubs prospects, as Kris Bryant joined the AAA Iowa Cubs on Thursday, already hitting one home run in just eight plate appearances thus far. This resulted in the Cubs demoting third baseman Christian Villanueva down to AA, as he is blocked by Olt at the big league level, Bryant in AAA now, and had a weak on base percentage of .283. 2014 fourth overall pick Kyle Schwarber was promoted from Short-Season-A Ball to Low-A Ball in Kane County after hitting four home runs in 24 plate appearances. This is about what was expected of Schwarber being a polished college power bat in the Northwest League. Third baseman Jeimer Candelario was demoted from High-A Ball to Low-A Ball in Kane County. In 244 plate appearances, Candelario had an on base percentage of just .270.

- Two notes on Red Sox prospects this week, as Mookie Betts continued to prove that he has big league-caliber stuff, posting an OPS of 1.054 over the past week, and an OPS of .888 on the season in AAA Pawtucket. Betts plays second base, so he is currently blocked by Pedroia, but his bat could play in the outfield. Top pitching prospect Henry Owens has been tearing up AA this season, posting an ERA of 1.99 after 86 innings pitched. Owens had a quality start Friday night, throwing seven innings, walking two, striking out eight, and allowing no earned runs.

- Twenty year old Twins prospect Jose Berrios posted a great start in High-A Ball, striking out nine in seven innings, walking only two, and allowing no earned runs. Berrios currently has an ERA of 2.09 after 77.1 innings pitched. He is almost certain to be promoted to AA later this year. Arguably the top prospect in all of baseball, Byron Buxton, has yet to return after a wrist injury. Kohl Stewart had a short start last Saturday, pitching only four innings, striking out three and allowing no earned runs. This short start was due to the MWL All-Star Game that Stewart wanted to pitch in. He has an ERA of 2.44 in 59 innings pitched in High-A Ball. AAA pitcher Trevor May has been great since being acquired, posting an ERA of 2.77 in 74.2 innings pitched. In his last start, on Monday, May pitched 8.1 innings, striking out eleven, walking two, and only one earned run. I would be shocked if he is not called up to the Twins soon.

- Miami Marlins top prospect Andrew Heaney made his major league debut on Thursday against the Mets, giving up only one run, a home run to David Wright, in six innings pitched. Third baseman Colin Moran struggled this week, having only one hit in sixteen plate appearances while in High-A Ball.

- Mets enigma Travis d'Arnaud spent the past week tearing up AAA Las Vegas, posting an OPS of 1.400 in 35 plate appearances with four homers. Although he looked like a deer in headlights during his stint with the Mets this year, expect him to be called up relatively soon, especially if he keeps putting up great numbers, despite being in player friendly Las Vegas. On Wednesday, outfielder Brandon Nimmo was promoted to AA after posting an OBP of .448 in High-A. He has had one hit in nine plate appearances, which is meaningless due to the sample size.

- Future Mariners ace Taijuan Walker had a mixed week in two starts. Last Saturday he pitched 6.2 innings, giving up one run and striking out seven. He followed that performance by pitching five innings on Thursday night, giving up three earned runs, two of which were home runs, and striking out only four. Walker has had his struggles this year in AAA, posting an ERA of 4.57 in 21.2 innings pitched. Other top Mariners prospect D.J. Peterson has been killing it this past week, posting an OPS of 1.744 in four games in High-A, and an OPS of .975 in 285 plate appearances. High-A pitcher Dylan Unsworth has had a disappointing season, posting a 6.46 ERA, but pitched a great game yesterday, pitching seven innings, striking out twelve, walking zero, and allowing zero earned runs. Unsworth has really struggled in High-A, so perhaps this is the start to him adjusting to advanced batters somewhat.

-  White Sox top prospect Matt Davidson continues to show how weak the White Sox’s prospect depth is, as he has put up a good OPS of .758 in 28 plate appearances over the past week, considerably higher than the .633 OPS he has put up through 266 plate appearances this year. AAA shortstop Carlos Sanchez put up an OPS of .987 over the past week, a large rise from the .791 he has posted on the season. With Alexei Ramirez having an above average season for the White Sox, Sanchez will probably remain in AAA for the foreseeable future. Starting pitching prospect Francellis Montas has been gold in High-A, posting an ERA of 1.76 in 51 innings pitched. Montas had a rough outing this past week, allowing four earned runs and five walks in seven innings pitched.

- In Kansas City Royals news, Kyle Zimmer remains out due to a back muscle injury for a few more weeks. There has to be some concern regarding his long-term health. Shortstop prospect Raul Mondesi returned from injury yesterday to join the High-A team, going hitless for the day. Sean Manaea has been having such a strange year in High-A, posting an ERA of 4.89, but striking out 12.32 batters per nine innings. He had a good short outing Saturday, being pulled after four innings, presumably for the all-star game. Yesterday, in five innings, Manaea struck out six, walked two, and allowed three earned runs. His fellow High-A starter Christian Binford has had a great season, posting a 2.19 ERA in 70 innings pitched. In his last start one week ago, Binford pitched six innings, striking out five, walking none, and allowing no earned runs. Binford is likely headed to AA sooner than later.

- Over the past week, top Yankees prospect, catcher Gary Sanchez has shown some improvement, posting an OPS of .824 for the week, an increase from his season long OPS of .748 in 246 plate appearances. Outfielder Aaron Judge was promoted to High-A Tampa this week after posting an OPS of .958 in 278 plate appearances in Low-A ball. Reliever Jose Ramirez was called up to the big league club and has been struggling, posting a 6.75 ERA in 5.1 innings in relief.

- Likely trade piece and Blue Jays starting pitcher prospect Aaron Sanchez was promoted to AAA about a week ago and has struggled in two outings, posting an ERA of 6.00 in nine innings pitched. As far as his trade value, his slight struggles in AAA probably eliminate the Blue Jays from the Samardzija or Price contests. Pitcher Daniel Norris made his first start in AA on Wednesday, striking out nine, but allowing four hits and four earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched. Norris has been gold in High-A ball this year, posting and ERA of 1.22 in 66.1 innings pitched. John Stilson has been very productive as a reliever in AAA this season, posting an ERA of 3.00 in thirty innings pitched. Not quite sure why he has not been called up to the Blue Jays bullpen.

- Although San Francisco Giants prospect Kyle Crick has a 3.88 ERA in 48.2 innings pitched in AA, he’s been really inconsistent lately, giving up four runs, then one run, then zero, then four, then one, then one, then four. I think he has had some command issues that inflate his walks and his ERA lately, which hopefully can be fixed. Andrew Susac is an interesting case, as he has put up an OPS of .815 for the year in AAA, but has been ice cold for the past week. He did suffer a concussion earlier in the year, so I am not sure if he is completely over it. Sometimes guys like Justin Morneau just struggle to recover. Regardless, he is blocked at the major league level by Posey, but could very well end up as the backup catcher by the end of the year for the San Francisco Giants. About a week ago relief pitching prospect Derek Law was diagnosed with a torn UCL and will most likely undergo Tommy John surgery, although he has yet to as of press time. Second baseman and shortstop Joe Panik has been called up by the Giants and will join the team tonight against the Diamondbacks.

- Top Arizona Diamondbacks prospect Archie Bradley who was shut down with arm strain a while ago, threw three innings of a rookie-league game on Monday. They are taking it slow with him. Third baseman prospect Jake Lamb has been tearing up AA, posting an OPS of .981 in 286 innings. This past week, he has posted an OPS of 1.015. There is no reason he should not be called up to AAA at this point. Reliever Jake Barrett was promoted to AAA where he has been mixed in two starts, giving up one run in a one inning performance and no runs in another one inning performance. He posted an ERA of 2.39 in 26.1 innings pitched in AA, so he should adjust with time.

- Rangers third baseman prospect Joey Gallo has been in AA for two weeks and has an OPS of 1.109, down from his OPS of 1.199 in High-A ball. I would not be shocked if he finished the season in AAA, which would be especially impressive given that he is only twenty years of age. Outfielder Nick Williams from a seven day DL stint yesterday, hitting one single in five plate appearances in his return in rookie ball. Nineteen year old second baseman prospect Travis Demeritte has played well in Low-A ball, posting an OPS of .854, but has chilled off posting an OPS of only .784 over the past week.

- Pirates top prospect Gregory Polanco was called up roughly a week and a half ago, posting an OPS of .864 in 53 plate appearances with the big league club. Pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow has absolutely been on a tear in High-A ball, posting an ERA of 1.71 and K/9 of 10.60 in 52.2 innings pitched. Glasnow has a shutout streak of 21.1 innings pitched currently. He really should be promoted to AA soon. Pitcher Nick Kingham was promoted to AAA Friday, where he pitched a seven inning, eight strikeout, no earned runs gem. On Wednesday, Kingham pitched seven innings, allowing only one run, walking zero. The Pirates could probably call Kingham up to the bullpen, but they would be best served letting him develop the rest of the year in AAA.

- It has been a real bummer for the Houston Astros when it comes to starting pitcher prospect Mark Appel. In 17.1 innings pitched for the High-A ball club, Appel has an ERA of 11.94. This guy was at one time considered the most major league ready pitcher in his draft class and now it is likely he will be sent down to Low-A ball. Domingo Santana has performed well at the AAA level, posting of .867 in 332 plate appearances for the season. As of late he has been on a tear, posting an OPS of 1.119 in 39 plate appearances. No idea if he is going to be a late season callup or if they will wait until next year. Low-A pitching prospect Michael Feliz has been impressive as of late, not allowing an earned run in 22.1 straight innings. Feliz has an ERA of 2.68 in 43.2 innings pitched on the year. Outfielder prospect Teoscar Hernandez has been unbelievably good this year in High-A, posting an OPS of .927 in 305 plate appearances, but over the past week, he has had a bit of a cold streak, only hitting for a .154 average.

- Top Baltimore Orioles pitching prospect Dylan Bundy made his return after Tommy John surgery in Low-A ball, pitching five innings on Sunday and striking out six, while allowing no walks. Ton of realistic potential is still there in Bundy. Another pitching prospect, Hunter Harvey, has been good in 60.1 innings pitched, posting an ERA of 3.13 over the course of the season. His last two starts on June 4 and June 10 in Low-A ball have proven to be problematic, posting a cumulative ERA of 14.85 for those two starts in 6.2 innings pitched. Orioles top catching prospect Michael Ohlman has really struggled this season, posting an OPS of .678 in 237 plate appearances in AA. Over the past week things have been looking up with him posting an OPS of .935 in 25 plate appearances.

More teams and prospects will be covered later in the week

Beisbol’s Blog

All 15 Strikeouts in Clayton Kershaw's No-Hitter

C/O Deadspin

What to Make of Miami Marlin Andrew Heaney So Far

What to Make of Miami Marlin Andrew Heaney So Far

            Last night, June 19, 2014, starting pitcher Andrew Heaney made his major league debut with the Miami Marlins, pitching six innings, allowing four hits, one of which was a home run and the only run scored against Heaney and one walk. Heaney’s thunder was taken away by Zack Wheeler who pitched his first complete game shutout, in which he struck out eight. Make no mistake, Wheeler was the better pitcher last night, but I am not in the camp that he will be the better pitcher in the long-run.

Left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney is the number one prospect for the Miami Marlins in a relatively deep farm system. Heaney, originally drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays out of high school, opted to attend college at Oklahoma State University, where he was drafted as the ninth overall pick by the Miami Marlins in 2012, after his junior season. He showed massive improvement during his junior season, in which he had a K/9 ratio of 10.65, up from 6.85, which he posted during his sophomore season. He also saw his BB/9 ratio drop from 3.09 to 1.67 from his sophomore to junior season at Oklahoma State University. He led the Big 12 in strikeouts in 2012, throwing 140 strikeouts. After being drafted, Heaney struggled slightly in Rookie/Low-A ball, posting a 4.95 ERA with Low-A ball team, the Greenville Grasshoppers. Prior to his first full minor league season in 2013, Heaney was ranked 43^rd by Baseball America and 81^st by MLB.com. He exceeded those and all expectations, posting a 0.88 ERA in 61.2 innings pitched in High-A ball, then a 2.94 ERA in 33.2 innings pitched for AA Jacksonville Suns.

Coming into the 2014 season, Heaney’s stock skyrocketed, being declared the 30^th best prospect by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus and the 29^th best prospect. He was widely agreed as the best Miami Marlins prospect after Jose Fernandez and Jake Marisnick were called up. Containing to pitch for the Jacksonville Suns, Heaney posted a 2.35 ERA in 53.2 innings pitched. Before his callup this past week, Heaney pitched 23 innings in AAA with an ERA of 2.74, with a 10.6 K/9. While numbers only tell part of the story when evaluating a prospect and how successful they will be in Major League Baseball, pitchers who struggle in the minors rarely work out in the majors. This is not relevant to Andrew Heaney as he played well in the minor leagues by any possible definition.

Heaney’s fastball, which were the majority of his pitches last night, sits at about 91-93, hitting 95 frequently, and topping out at 97. Although scouts describe his fastball as a plus due to the movement of the pitch, batters tend to make enough contact with it to be concerned at times. I am trying not to put too much judgment into the one game last night, where a considerable amount of contact was made off of Heaney’s fastball, but it is tempting to look at it at make a judgment. His slider/sinker is his best pitch (easy plus pitch), but only made up 17.6% of the 91 pitches Heaney threw. 64.4% of those slider/sinker pitches that he threw were called strikes. His curveball is about league average and could develop into above league average. Heaney showed a lack of confidence in the curveball, throwing it only 1.1% of the time in last night’s game. It is probably his weakest secondary pitch at this time, so slowly increasing the amount of times he throws it throughout the season is not a bad idea. Heaney has an above average changeup which induced some swing and misses by batters. His changeup maxed out at 83.5 and induced a good amount of groundballs. To paint a better picture of Andrew Heaney’s night against the New York Mets, let us take a look at the PitchF/X plot.

Where the ball was when it left his hand

Where the ball was when it reached the plate

            Heaney is described as having plus control, which the first graphic affirms, but the second graphic shows issues with command. Like stated, a number of his pitches have movement, often appearing erratic at times. I would not worry about it yet, it is one start and this is the only PitchF/X data we have to go off of. It could be nerves, as it is his first major league start. If the erratic command is there for a full season, it is worth discussing, but it is just an interesting thing to point out for now.

Pitch speed

            For completeness, I wanted to post the speed of each pitch Andrew Heaney threw throughout the game and it is normal. You see the drop-offs for secondary pitches and a slightly decrease in fastball velocity after 90 pitches. About average stuff you would see in most pitchers.

            Where does Andrew Heaney end up? Most sites like Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com predict him as a 2/3 starter on the Marlins, which seems likely to me. I am not reaching this conclusion from his first outing against the New York Mets, but rather the success he has shown at the minor league level. He did not dominate minor league ball like an ace would, but pitched very well at the lower league level and has two plus pitches and two pitches that are going to end up above average. That easily fits the profile of a 2/3 starter on a winning team. When Jose Fernandez returns, the Marlins may have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, with both Fernandez and Heaney.

Clips from Heaney's MLB Debut with the Miami Marlins

Kershaw Dialed In With Two Outs Remaining

Matt Joyce Hits A Ball Back Into The Machine

Did Clayton Kershaw Throw The Greatest Game Ever?

Did Clayton Kershaw Throw The Greatest Game Ever?

            Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw had the best game yet in his seven year career Wednesday night, June 18, 2014. In nine innings, Kershaw threw fifteen strikeouts and walked zero over the course of nine innings. It would have been a perfect game had Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez not made a throwing error. While I understand the traditional importance of no-hitters and perfect games, the error proves how meaningless the terms are outside of being cool moments. When evaluating a pitcher, one should look at everything the pitcher can control and as little else as possible. Hanley Ramirez’s error does not change everything Clayton Kershaw did. Kershaw could not control that error. By this logic, the ideal greatest game error would be twenty-seven strikeouts with zero walks, but the odds of that game occurring are very slim. This type of idea leads back to the old game score system created by Bill James.

            Basically, game score adds points for each out recorded, each strikeout, and each inning after four innings, while subtracting for each hit, each earned run, each unearned run, and each walk. Each pitcher starts out with fifty points and then the additions and subtractions are then carried out as the game progresses. For a more detailed explanation, just check out the Fangraphs or Wikipedia pages on how to calculate a score in-depth. It is an old and relatively rudimentary system, but one that I find fair to pitchers. The system has a maximum/best possible score of 114, something that has never and will never likely be achieved. Clayton Kershaw’s game score last night was 102, the second highest recorded score in history (for fairness purposes I am excluding outliers who pitched more than nine innings, such as Joe Oeschger 26 inning performance). This illustrates what a magnificent performance it truly was. There have been twenty-three perfect games in the history of Major League Baseball and Kershaw’s no-hitter was better than each and every one of them. If you are wondering how that is possible, it basically boils down to strikeouts. Mark Buehrle and Dallas Braden only had six strikeouts in their perfect games, with the remaining outs either being ground outs or flyball outs. When it comes to measuring pitcher performance, not all outs are created equally, as the pitcher should try and eliminate the need for the field to make a play to get an out, going back to the best hypothetical game is the twenty-seven strikeout game.

            If we were just discussing good or great games, I would not be as concerned with walks, but when you are attempting to measure all-time great games, walks become a big concern, as they leave a runner on base with the pitcher unable to change that fact by themselves (unless the runner is picked off the bag). That lone walked man on base could eventually score in a no-hitter after a few flyballs to the outfield, allow the score of the game to change, which is why walks are measured in these types of all-time great performances. Just as the goal of a batter is to get on base, the goal of a pitcher is to ensure runners do not get on base. At the risk of being repetitive, when the ball is hit it is up to the fielder to ensure the runner does not get on base, whereas a strikeout is the pitcher himself ensuring that the runner does not get on base.

            The greatest game ever pitched happened May 6, 1998, as Kerry Wood posted a game score of 105, the closest to perfect ever recorded in major league history. Unlike Kershaw’s no-hitter or the twenty three perfect games, Wood did allow one infield single to Ricky Gutiérrez, which fans argue to this very day that the hit should’ve been an error charged on Kevin Orie (and there is a good case there for that). Wood struck out twenty, allowing no walks in the process, during his demolition of the Houston Astros. This brings up one big imperfection with game score, it does not take into account the team the player pitched against. Numerous perfect games and no-hitters were pitched against Tampa Bay Rays teams that finished with poor records. Clayton Kershaw pitched against the 2014 Colorado Rockies, who have a slightly above average league offense. Troy Tulowitzki is having an insane season, especially at home, posting an OPS+ of 184, which makes him the frontrunner for National League Most Valuable Player so far. His OPS+ is likely to drop some as the season progresses, but we are at a point where it is no longer small sample size, rather Tulowtizki having an all-time great season for a shortstop. While Kershaw failed to strikeout Tulowitzki, Tulowitzki failed to reach base on a hit or walk. Outside of Tulowitzki, Morneau and Blackmon are having good seasons, but the rest of the lineup is average to say the least. The 1998 Houston Astros won 102 games, having five players with an OPS+ over 120, two of which were Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. Wood struck out Craig Biggio once, Moises Alou three times, Jeff Bagwell three times, and Derek Bell twice among the other Astros batters. Wood faced tougher competition and struck them out more often, while allowing the same amount of walks Kershaw did, zero.

            Three games closely follow Kershaw’s game score of 102: Matt Cain’s perfect game, one of Nolan Ryan’s no-hitters, and Sandy Koufax’s perfect game. All three games received a game score of 101. Ryan’s game and Koufax’s game both faced similarly-level talent as Kershaw’s no-hitter, while Matt Cain’s perfect game came against a horrendous rebuilding Houston Astros team. There are obviously other ways to measure how well a pitcher performed other than game score, because as I have stated, it is a fairly basic way of measurement. If one wants to use some other form of measurement to try and rank Kershaw’s performance higher or lower, that is understandable, but for discussion’s sake I am trying to keep this fairly simple and easy to understand.

            So, did Clayton Kershaw throw the best game in baseball history? No, I do not see any way to spin it as that as you can go with Wood as the best nine inning performance in the history of baseball or you can go with some deadball pitchers who pitched 20+ innings, which inflated their game score. One may also try and argue that Koufax’s perfect game or Nolan Ryan’s no-hitter came against better talent, but it really is splitting hairs there. Is it fair to say that Clayton Kershaw just pitched the greatest no-hitter in the history of Major League Baseball? It is absolutely fair to state that it is the greatest no-hitter in the history of baseball because of the number of strikeouts, zero walks, the game score, and the level of talent Clayton Kershaw was up against. Regardless of where one wants to rank his performance on the all-time great chart, last night we witnessed true greatness by a pitcher.

Steinbrenner on SNL

Cueto Feels Pain Like Never Before

MLB Power Rankings (6/17/14)

MLB Power Rankings

This is a very rudimentary look at ranking MLB teams, as it is only mid-June and I have not published a power rankings system before.

1. Oakland Athletics – Their run differential says it all (an insane +126). The Athletics had a mixed week in terms of wins and losses, and Josh Donaldson has been ice cold at the plate, but they still remain the best team in baseball and should continue their rise once Donaldson snaps out of it.

2. San Francisco Giants – The Giants had a disappointing week, winning only four of their last ten, but they are second in run differential (+54), and continue to amaze in even years.

3. Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays have taken a fairly commanding lead in a competitive division, despite only winning four of their last ten, but I am not quite sure how long they can hold onto this spot if they do not trade for a starting pitcher. The odds are not in Marcus Stroman’s favor in terms of succeeding as a starting pitcher.

4. Milwaukee Brewers – The Brew crew and their voodoo magic continue to put up winning numbers in a division with four teams in search of a playoff spot.  They had a week over .500 and they have proven to be successful at home and on the road. Their pitching staff has been good so far, but I am not sure it can be successful in the long-term. The team makes this up with Gomez, Reynolds, Lucroy, and Braun among others, who have proven to be successful this season.

5. Los Angeles Angels – The Angels have been really good this year after two slumping years, finally getting production from high dollar signings in Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. Trout is still phenomenal. Callups like CJ Cron have proven to have some value in terms of power. Pitching has been mixed, but Garrett Richards has been fantastic, keeping the staff alive. They finished the past ten games with six wins.

6. Detroit Tigers – Outside of their closer woes, the Tigers have had a fairly successful season, even with Verlander looking like the odd man out in that rotation. Anibal Sanchez has been the most underrated pitcher in baseball, having a WHIP of 0.941. Victor Martinez has been a godsend for the Tigers as DH, even at age 35.

7.  Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers are 6-4 in their last ten games thanks to the pitching staff. Everyone in the rotation has been good, even Josh Beckett and offseason pickup Dan Haren. Butera and Crawford are questions in regards to their offensive production, but overall the offense has been productive for the season, even though it has slipped a bit in the past couple weeks.

8. Kansas City Royals – The Royals have been powered by a much better than anticipated pitching staff, which has kept them only half a game back behind the Tigers in the American League Central.

                                                                                                                             

9. St. Louis Cardinals – While the Cardinals are 3.5 games back from the leading Brewers, they have been on a hot streak over the past ten games, winning seven with phenomenal pitching. This is now up in the air with staff ace Adam Wainwright having some arm issues, which could impact their season greatly. Their offense has been lukewarm to say the least, so it remains to be seen which direction they’re headed with the Wainwright injury.

10. Atlanta Braves - The Braves lead the National League East by half a game and it is going to be a struggle to hold onto that spot, as the Nationals close in. Ervin Santana has not been the impact pitcher that the Braves hoped for, so expect them to shop for a starting arm possibly by the trade deadline. One time janitor Evan Gattis has been raking for the Braves, posting an OPS+ of 153, which has led them to four wins in their past ten games.

11. Washington Nationals – While Gio Gonzalez has been disappointing, the rest of the pitching staff has been good for the Nationals, keeping them in the NL East race. Nate McClouth has been a disaster in left field and the rest of the offense has had mixed results. Bryce Harper needs to get healthy if the Nationals want to trend upward.

12. Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles offense has been led by Nelson Cruz who has crushed the ball 8% of the time. Kevin Gausman will likely be brought up to replace Ubaldo Jimenez, who has disappointed. They are trending downward with the loss of Matt Wieters to Tommy John surgery.

13. Seattle Mariners – The Mariners have put up a run differential of +32 in the wood chipper that is the American League West. Seager and Cano have kept their offense afloat, with Seager increasing his power almost exponentially and Cano getting on base. They have two great pitchers in Iwakuma and Felix Hernandez, but need another arm to contend down the stretch. Mariners could trend up or down, it is just too hard to tell at this point.

14. Cleveland Indians – While they have a run differential of -13, they have won six of their last ten games, propelling them upward. Lonnie Chisenhall is a legit MVP candidate so far and the rest of the offense has performed well, save for Ryan Rayburn. The pitching staff is the real problem here, with their one-time ace Justin Masterson underperforming big time. If the pitchers get it together expect a big jump upward.

15. Miami Marlins – Who would have ever guessed the Marlins would have been this good, even without Jose Fernandez? With a +15 run differential, the Marlins are only one game behind the NL East lead. Led by Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins offense has actually been above league average overall (they are held back offensively by Adeiny Hechavarria, who makes up for it with great defense at shortstop). The rotation has been modest, but the addition of recent call up Andrew Heaney will surely help their pitching. They are without a doubt a team that can swing upwards.

16. Colorado Rockies – There is a good case to be made that Troy Tulowitzki is the National League MVP, as he has lead the Rockies to keeping their heads above water, posting a +12 run differential on the season. The pitching staff has been poor to say the least with three of their five starters under an ERA+ of 100. With an rough schedule upcoming and their division, expect them to trend downward.

17. Pittsburgh Pirates – The pitching staff has been a real disappointment for the Pirates this year, especially after losing A.J. Burnett. The only starter on the team with an ERA+ over 100 is Charlie Morton. Francisco Liriano is having a rough year. Jason Grilli has not been as good as he was during last year’s winning season. The good news is that Andrew McCutchen is starting to put it together and the recent call up Gregory Polanco appears to be a boost that the Pirates desperately needed.

18. Cincinnati Reds – The Reds have not had the greatest season so far, struggling in the National League Central, but do have some positives going in their favor. Votto, Mesoraco, and Frazier have all had great years, keeping the offense above water. Johnny Cueto may very well win the National League CY Young award at this rate. Chapman has looked great since coming back. The negatives? Pretty much everything else. This is another team that could go either way trending-wise.

19. New York Yankees – Sitting at 6-4 after their last ten games, the Yankees have had a mixed season. Teixera, Solarte, and Ellsbury have performed well, but the Derek Jeter retirement tour is really dragging down the offense and defense, but then again the Yankees do not have many other options, other than maybe Brendan Ryan. The pitching staff has been riddled with injuries, but Tanaka has been a phenom and Whitley has surprised, albeit in six games started.

20. Chicago White Sox – Another team that has struggled and is being carried by a few players. Do not expect the Sox’s stock to rise as they are stuck as a middle of the pack team at best.

21. Houston Astros – The Astros have increased their stock since the beginning of the year by calling up George Springer and Jonathan Singleton. Fowler and Jose Altuve have also been valuable for the club throughout the year. Dallas Keuchel has somehow been great all season. This is a rebuilding team that has won six of their last ten.

22. Minnesota Twins – The Twins have not been good this year, but are somehow only five out of the lead in the American League Central. They have a league average offense, but the magical Phil Hughes is the only worthwhile starter on the team. I would expect Hughes to regress eventually, sliding this team even further down.

23. Texas Rangers – Plagued with injuries, the Rangers still remain fighters in the American League West, going 5-5 over their last ten games. Beltre, Choo, and Rios have produced, but injuries have left positions like 1B up to AAA guys like Brad Snyder. Darvish has been great and Saunders has been good in his limited time starting, but the Rangers are just such a mess now. At least Joey Gallo is an up and comer!

24. New York Mets – Not a good season by any stretch of the imagination for the New York Mets, but at least Bobby Abreu has been on fire. 40 year old Abreu has posted an OPS of .833 in 94 plate appearances. At least you have a cool guy on your team, Mets fans!

25. Boston Red Sox – This has not been the Red Sox year. Despite going 5-5 over their last ten games, Red Sox outfielders have been unable to hit, with Jackie Bradley posting an OPS+ of 64, which is just horrible. Ortiz and Napoli have been good, as has Mike Holt in limited time, but that is not enough. Brandon Workman has thrown quality innings, which may give some Sox fans that the team will trend upward.

26. Chicago Cubs – Rizzo and Starlin Castro have not been bad this year, but they are still in their rebuilding state, where half of the lineup and rotation is on the trade block. Arrieta and Hammel had good outings against the Phillies which boosted their and the team’s stock some.

27. Arizona Diamondbacks – Arizona has been miserable at home, but they are .500 on the road, which is why I am placing them as high as I am. A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt are really carrying the offense, while nobody is carrying the pitching staff. To make matters worse, highly paid Trevor Cahill was just demoted to A ball.

28. San Diego Padres – Only one person, Seth Smith, on the offense is producing. Only one person, Andrew Cashner, on the pitching staff is producing. Over their previous ten games they are 2-8. They are bad, real bad.

29. Philadelphia Phillies – Philly just lost a home series to the Chicago Cubs. Ben Revere and Dominic Brown have been anchors for this offense. Hamels and Lee are producing on the pitching end of things, but that really is it for the Phillies. It is time for this team to be sent out to pasture.

30. Tampa Bay Rays – David Dejesus is really the only guy on the offensive producing at a high level. The pitching staff is not even that bad, just really mediocre. Only Chris Archer has an ERA+ over 100. Being in the American League East means that the Rays are doomed.