MLB Prospect Weekly News & Notes (6/28/14)

MLB Prospect Weekly News & Notes

- This week has been mixed for Houston Astros prospects and fans, as starting pitcher Mark Appel has shown some progression (or regression to the norm), but Carlos Correa fractured his fibula on a slide into third, keeping him out for the remainder of the season. Appel has a collective 5.40 ERA over his past two starts, with five total strikeouts. This may sound horrendous, but when you compare it to his previous three outings, allowing 17 earned runs in just 6.2 innings pitched, it is progress, just not as fast as the Astros front office and fans wish. Prior to his injury, shortstop Correa had an OPS of .926 on the season. Correa was named to the Futures Game roster, but, of course, will not play. Starting pitching prospect Mike Foltynewicz struggled on Thursday, giving up four earned runs in five innings. High-A third baseman Rio Ruiz went ice cold this past week, posting an OPS of .678 in 33 plate appearances, far below his season OPS of .817. Although he has not started this week, keep an eye on AA pitching prospect Kyle Smith, who is posting an 3.78 ERA on the season, displaying good command, walking only 1.89 batters per nine innings and striking out 9.82 batters per nine innings.

- Mookie Betts was called up to the major league Boston Red Sox today after posting an OPS of .869 in AAA, with a wOBA north of .400, which is very good. The big issue here is that some of his value comes from the position he plays, second base. He will be playing the outfield for the Red Sox, which he can do, and it makes sense to a degree as the Boston Red Sox outfield has been anemic offensively this year. A ton of people love Betts bat and it will be interesting to see how he translates in the next week. AA pitching prospect Henry Owens was selected to the 2014 MLB Futures Game. This news came out the same day Owens had a rough outing in AA, giving up four earned runs in six innings pitched. While starting pitcher Cody Kukuk looked great in A ball, he has since struggled in High-A ball, posting an 8.33 ERA in 35.2 innings pitched. He has been really roughed up in his past two starts, giving up ten earned runs in 6.1 innings pitched. I would be worried about Kukuk, as he has been killed in every appearance so far in High-A. Second baseman Sean Coyle has been impressive in AA this year, putting up an OPS of 1.024. With Betts movie up, I would expect a call-up to AAA for Coyle anytime.

- The curious case of Kris Bryant continues in AAA Iowa for the Chicago Cubs, as he has ten hits in 33 at bats, five of them being home runs. Yesterday, Bryant had a three hit performance, raising his OPS for the week up to 1.427. He still has some strikeout issues, but seems to be adjusting to AAA pitching, which is a good sign. Bryant is still playing third base for some reason that is beyond me. Bryant and teammate Javier Baez were both named to the Futures Game this week. Baez has had a good week in AAA, posting an OPS of .780, higher than his season average of .722. He showed some improvement in taking walks/striking out, raising his walk percentage to 9.7% and lowering his strikeout rate to 29%. While those still seem disappointing, baby steps with Baez and plate patience. According to Theo Epstein, president of the Chicago Cubs, the Cubs are trying to “re-program” the way Jorge Soler’s body moves to prevent future injury. Outfielder Soler returned to Rookie ball this week, having an OPS of 1.667 in fifteen plate appearances, which sounds impressive, but if he did not put up those numbers rehabbing in R ball, it would have been a major disappointment. Cubs AAA second baseman prospect Arismendy Alcantara had a great night last night, going 4-6 with one home run. Alcantara is putting up an OPS of .890 in AAA in 315 plate appearances. With major league second baseman Darwin Barney’s struggles on the season, Alcantara could (and should) be called up before year’s end. Reliever prospect Zack Cates has been putting up encouraging numbers, with an ERA of 2.89 in 9.1 innings after being promoted to AA. This week has been a rough one for Cates, putting three earned runs in four innings pitched. Cates gave up no earned runs prior to this week. Starting pitcher Dallas Beeler was called up this week and will start Saturday. Hunter Cervenka has quietly been pitching well in relief in AA, posting an ERA of 2.87 in 31.1 innings pitched. He should be promoted to AAA soon, but the Cubs front office is conservative on call-ups.

- On Sunday, Diamondbacks pitching prospect Braden Shipley had one great day, striking out ten in seven innings pitched. Reports indicate his changeup and curveball were killer pitches alongside his easy plus fastball. Yesterday, Shipley could not get it going, giving up eight earned runs and striking out zero in 3.1 innings pitched. Although Shipley has an ERA of 4.97 in 29 innings with the High-A affiliate, he shows flashes of potential, as seen on Sunday. There is some concern that he is almost 22 ½ years of age and does not have High-A locked down yet, but he shows enough to keep an eye on him and expect him to develop. With the fastball, changeup, and curveball, we are looking at three likely plus pitches at the least. Shipley made the Futures Game roster. Since being promoted to AAA, starting pitching prospect Archie Bradley has struggled, putting up an ERA of 5.18 in 24.1 innings pitched. The walk rate of 4.44 in nine innings pitched is concerning in AAA, especially for the Diamondbacks top prospect. Since being promoted to AAA, Jake Barrett has been mixed performance-wise, alternating outings, allowing a home run in one outing, then allowing no earned runs, then back to a single home run outing, then no earned runs. I would not consider this bad news as it has been just four innings, so give him time and he will make the big league club. Another interesting story for the Diamondbacks farm system has been shortstop Nick Ahmed, who has an OPS of .829 in AAA this year. He has been hot this week, posting an OPS of 1.219 in 37 plate appearances. With Chris Owings and Didi Gregorius already taking up shortstop spots, it is unclear if they will move Ahmed to a different position, trade him, or perhaps trade Owings or Gregorius. Now that La Russa is the man in charge, it is still unclear what this means for the Diamondbacks franchise.

- Washington Nationals starting pitching prospect Lucas Giolito has been one of the success stories for those who come back after a UCL injury and Tommy John surgery. The nearly twenty year old Giolito has been a killer in A ball, with a K/9 of 10.04, a BB/9 of 3.46, and an ERA of 2.30 in 54.2 innings pitched. He dazzled in six innings on Thursday, striking out nine and giving up no earned runs. He was named to the Futures Game and will likely be promoted to AA before the end of the year. Everyone loves him and seems to think he will be a possible ace in the major leagues before long. Starting pitching prospect A.J. Cole was promoted to AAA yesterday after posting an ERA of 2.92 in 71 innings pitched. Cole gave up an astonishing 0.13 HR/9 in AA. AA outfielder was named to the Futures Game roster after putting up an OPS of .984 in 325 plate appearances. Taylor had what was a down week for him, posting an OPS of .753 in twenty-eight plate appearances. If the Washington Nationals can find a spot for him on their big league club, he might be called up by the end of the year. I would be shocked if he is not in the majors beginning in 2015.

- Top Cleveland Indians prospect Francisco Lindor was the lone representative on the Futures Game roster for the Indians. Despite struggling this year with an OPS of .770 in 319 plate appearances, Lindor is still considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball and the top shortstop prospect in baseball by many. One reason for this is his BB% and K% compared to someone like Javier Baez. On the year, Lindor has a BB% of only 11%, but his K% is only 16%. Lindor has developed some pop, hitting six home runs on the year, beating his home run totals in High-A and AA last year combined. While it is only been three games, Lindor has had a good week, putting up an OPS of 1.111. While old at twenty-seven years of age, reliever Austin Adams has been fairly productive pitching in AAA for the Cleveland Indians, putting up an ERA of 2.65 in 34 innings pitched. He really could be called up by the Indians or be used as a trade chip to a team looking to add a bullpen arm (there are many). Adams has given up one run since May 7, which is pretty impressive.

- Let us talk about Mariners top prospect Taijuan Walker. Since the last prospect news and notes, Walker had one start in which he pitched nine innings, striking out eight, walking one, and giving up no earned runs. After the game, Walker was quoted as saying he is “back to feeling normal,” which may just be talk, but that mindset is encouraging, especially with a top prospect like Walker. Walker’s status with the Mariners organization is up for questioning, with the Mariners seemingly in on Jeff Samardzija. I do not think it is likely he will be traded, as he would have been traded for David Price in the offseason if General Manager Jack Z. wanted to trade him. Perhaps with the team in the playoff hunt the Mariners finally may make a move and if it is a big one, it will require Walker. Two prospects for Seattle were named to the Futures Game: outfielder Gabby Guerrero and third baseman D.J. Peterson. Guerrero being named to the roster is a bit of surprise, as he has not had the best year, putting up an OPS of .794 in High-A ball. Guerrero has been ice cold this past week, putting up a poor OPS of .524 in six games. After putting up an OPS of .997 in A ball, D.J. Peterson was promoted to AA on Tuesday, where he has played two games. He has had two hits and a walk in nine plate appearances, but that is a sample size too small to even think about. AA pitching prospect Victor Sanchez did not have a good week, giving up four earned runs in 6.1 innings in one start and four earned runs in four innings in the other start. His strikeout numbers were down for both games to four and two, respectively.

- Time for your weekly Joey Gallo update, Texas Rangers fans. Over the past week, third baseman Gallo has put up a disappointing (yes, disappointing for him) OPS of .833 with three home runs. The really bad news is the BB% and the K%. He took no walks this week and struck out 58.3%. That is seriously concerning, but that is the type of player Gallo is, a swing for the fences without regard-type. Historically guys with such poor plate patience do not make it, but Gallo has elite power, probably the best in the minor leagues (sorry Javier Baez). Rangers outfielder Nick Williams heated up since making his High-A debut on Tuesday, posting an OPS of 1.218 in 13 appearances before being placed on the seven day DL for an undisclosed injury. The expensive Jairo Beras had an above average week in A ball amid a disastrous season. For the year, Beras has posted an OPS of .552, but has posted an OPS of .750, which is a small sample, but perhaps Beras is finally trending in the right direction. Seventeen year old starting pitching prospect Marcos Diplan has quietly been tearing up Rookie ball, putting up an ERA of 1.52 in 23.2 innings pitched. He has had a relatively tight leash on innings pitched, often going out for four or five innings, but he strikes out four, five, or seven in that short amount of time. Diplan is definitely a guy to keep an eye on.

-  Baltimore Orioles starting pitching prospect Dylan Bundy was at one time considered the best pitching prospect in all of baseball, and even the best overall prospect by some. An UCL injury and Tommy John surgery derailed that, but since coming back and rehabbing in Low-A ball, Bundy has looked like his old self. In three starts, he has twenty-two strikeouts, three walks, and one earned run in fifteen innings pitched. His fastball has been sitting in the 91-93 mph range. He is still throwing a solid curveball and his cutter sat between 86-89 in his most recent outing. Dylan Bundy will be an ace on a major league team in two years. Both the Rays and Cubs should use Samardzija or Price to try and get him before his prospect hype gets back into the stratosphere. Outfielder Dariel Alvarez and starting pitcher Hunter Harvey both were named to the Futures Game roster. Alvarez has been solid in AA this year, putting up an OPS of .825, but he has only drawn walks 2.5% of the time and is already twenty-five years of age. Nineteen year old Hunter Harvey has just been a force in A ball with a 2.98 ERA over 66.1 innings pitched. In his most recent outing on Monday, Harvey struck out seven and gave up one earned run in six innings pitched.

- AA pitcher Robert Stephenson was the lone selection for the Cincinnati Reds in the Futures Game. Stephenson has been mediocre to say the least this year, putting up an ERA of 4.17 in 82 innings pitched. He also has a fairly concerning BB/9 of 4.50. The past week has been mixed for Stephenson going seven innings, striking out seven, and only allowing three runs, then going five, striking out five, and allowing four earned runs. If anything, Stephenson is trending sideways, which has to be worrying for a top prospect in a club’s farm system. In semi-prospect news, the Reds signed Raisel Iglesias, a 5’11” Cuban pitcher. His fastball touches 96 and his breaking ball sits in the 76-81 range via Ben Badler. Some expect him to start, but with the height, I think it is more likely that he is headed to the bullpen.

- Catcher Kevin Plawecki and starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard were the two selections for the Futures Game for the New York Mets. Plawecki was promoted to AAA on Thursday after putting up an OPS of .864 in AA on the year. He has had eight plate appearances in AAA, so I am going off of a tremendously small sample size in analyzing two games. While Plawecki’s OPS of .821 in AAA sounds impressive so far, you have to keep in mind that the Mets AAA club is in the Pacific Coast League where hitters can put up video game numbers, so that number is about average to above average, not something to rave over quite yet, especially with a miniscule sample size. On the other hand, Noah Syndergaard’s ERA of 5.35 in AAA sounds horrible, but it is a hitter’s league, so I would not put too much stock in either hitters or pitchers’ numbers in the Pacific Coast League. Since being promoted to AA, Brandon Nimmo has not set the world on fire offensively, posting an OPS of .714 in thirty plate appearances. Nimmo still displays great plate patience, walking 20% of the time, while striking out only 16.7% of the time. In High-A, Nimmo was walked 17.9% of the time and struck out 18.3% of the time. Thought Nimmo might make the Futures Game roster, but he did not.

- The two individuals named to the Futures Game for the Phillies were shortstop J.P. Crawford and third baseman Maikel Franco. Crawford was just promoted to High-A ball last week and has struggled since, putting up an OPS of .686 in 40 plate appearances. In 267 plate appearances in A ball, Crawford put up an OPS of .804. What is especially concerning with him is his BB% and K%. He gets walked 10% of the time and strikes out 27.5% of the time in High-A, but then again, small sample size, as he was literally 1:1 in BB/K in A ball. Franco has spent the entire season in AAA, but has looked pretty bad, posting an OPS of .596. The past week has not been kind to him, as he has put up an OPS of .405 in his past seven games. Someone who made the Futures Game roster last year, pitcher Jesse Biddle, continues to struggle in AA. On the season, Biddle has an ERA of 5.03 and was given a “mental break” by Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and is now listed as day-to-day.

- The Colorado Rockies had one person selected to the Futures Game, SS Rossell Herrera. Herrera has spent the entire year in High-A ball, putting up a mediocre OPS of .706. He has only had one game where he has homered the entire year, hitting two home runs, creating a power surge for the rest of the season for Herrera. High-A catcher William Swanner has struggled all year in High-A, posting an OPS of .743. He spent all of last season in High-A and put up very similar numbers, so he is not progressing like he should. Swanner has been on a hot streak over the past week, though, putting up an OPS of .919 in seven games. It probably is too small of a sample size to analyze too seriously, but he is trending in the right direction. Last year’s third overall pick Jon Gray continues to perform fairly well, putting up an ERA of 3.77 in 74 innings pitched. Last Friday was not Gray’s best outing as he was roughed up in five innings pitched, giving up five earned runs, but striking out seven. He is still performing better than the pitcher chose two spots ahead of him, Mark Appel.

- Marten Gasparini just turned seventeen and is already playing in Rookie ball for the Kansas City Royals. The highest paid European free agent ever, Gasparini is putting up an OPS of .642 in 27 plate appearances. Two points on this. 27 plate appearances in a career is certainly small sample size. He also just turned seventeen. The only other seventeen year old more advanced than Gasparini at this point is Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias. Christian Binford was the lone person named to the Futures Game roster, putting up an ERA of 2.35 in 76.2 innings pitched in High-A ball. Binford was hit up in his last start, giving up three earned runs in 6.2 innings pitched, but striking out six in the process.

- The aforementioned pitching prospect Julio Urias was named to the Futures Game roster, alongside shortstop Corey Seager. Urias is seventeen years old and playing well in High-A ball, which is unbelievable really. In 49.2 inning in High-A, Urias has an ERA of 3.44. He has a plus fastball and a plus curveball at seventeen. I cannot overemphasize how impressive this is. Shortstop Corey Seager has spent the entire season in High-A, putting up an OPS of 1.010, which is also impressive. Seager is likely to end up at third base, so I am not sure why they are playing with him at shortstop. The past week has been slightly above average for Seager, putting up an OPS of 1.096 during the seven game stretch. Joc Pederson was snubbed from the Futures Game, despite hitting 1.005 in 332 plate appearances in AAA. Pederson was just placed on the seven day DL for a shoulder injury. All three are a big part of the Dodgers future plans.

- Braves pitcher Lucas Sims has been good at times in High-A ball, putting up an ERA of 4.71 in 84 innings pitched. On Thursday, Sims had an impressive performance, striking out six in seven innings, allowing no earned runs.

Freaky No-Hitters

Freaky No-Hitters

            Yesterday, June 25, 2014, Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants threw his second career no-hitter, both of which occurred against the same team, the San Diego Padres, within one calendar year. Only two pitchers have thrown two no-hitters, have at least two Cy Young Awards, and have at least two World Series Championships; Sandy Koufax and Lincecum. The two also have another interesting connection, both were dominant for only a short period of time, albeit for very different reasons. Koufax pitched twelve seasons, dominating in the latter half of his career, despite having arthritis problems that would eventually lead to him retiring at the age of thirty. Many consider Koufax the greatest pitcher of all-time, if not at least one of the greatest of all-time. Lincecum, currently thirty, has gone the opposite direction, joining the Giants in 2007 and having great seasons until 2012. While his 2008 and 2009 Cy Young Award-winning seasons are absolutely dominating (ERA+ of 168 in 2008 and 171 in 2009, with a K/9 over 10 both years), he probably will not be remembered a tenth as well as Koufax in the future. Koufax was great for six seasons (and quite possibly the best pitcher in the game during that stretch) and good for four others. Lincecum was great for two seasons and good for three others.

While the obvious objection is Tim Lincecum is only thirty years old, he has been on a downward trend since 2011, posting not league average seasons, but outright bad seasons. His ERA+ in 2012 was 68, with an ERA of 5.18 in 186 innings pitched. That season also saw his walk rate spike, going from 3.6 in 2011 to 4.4 in 2012. At the time it was considered that it was just a fluke bad season for Lincecum, but 2013 and 2014 concur with 2012. Lincecum’s ERA+ in 2013 was 78 and is currently at 77 in 2014 (and that is including his no-hitter yesterday). Keep in mind that an ERA+ of 100 is league average. So why exactly has Tim Lincecum thrown two no-hitters in two of his three worst seasons in his career? This may surprise some, but there is no real objective answer here. Is it just mere luck? Is nature on his side? Is it the work of God? A no-hitter, or even a perfect game, does not necessarily indicate anything other than a pitcher had a very good day and pitched well.

In 2012, Phillip Humber threw a perfect game for the Chicago White Sox, striking out nine in just 96 pitches. That year Humber posted an ERA+ of 66. Humber currently struggles on the Oakland Athletics AAA team. In 2010, Edwin Jackson threw a no-hitter for the Arizona Diamondbacks, walking eighth batter, even hitting one batter with a pitch, but accomplished the feat after 149 pitches. Jackson was traded to the Chicago White Sox later that season, posting an ERA+ of 82 with the Arizona Diamondbacks and 95 total for the 2010 season. On Mother’s Day in 2010, Twenty-six year old Dallas Braden of the Oakland Athletics pitched a perfect game, striking out six in the process of throwing 109 pitches. Braden posted an ERA+ of 117 that year. Three games into the 2011 season he left with a shoulder injury and never pitched another inning again. On July 10, 2009, struggling fifth starter Jonathan Sanchez pitched a no-hitter for the San Francisco Giants, walking none, making it one of the rare no-hitters where only an error stopped it from being a perfect game. For that 2009 season, Sanchez posted an ERA+ of 100, exactly league average. He followed that year up with a pretty good 2010, posting an ERA+ of 127, allowing a career low 6.6 hits per nine innings. Sanchez’s 2011 was disappointing prior to his foot injury that happened mid-season, posting an ERA+ of 82. 2012 and 2013 saw limited innings for Sanchez because he was just such a poor pitcher, posting an ERA+ of 53 in 2012 and 31 in 2013. He is currently struggling with the Chicago Cubs AAA team. In his second year in the major leagues, 1999, Eric Milton pitched a no-hitter for the Minnesota Twins, leading to him having his best career major league year with an ERA+ of 113. Milton struggled in mediocrity, with a career ERA of 4.99, until he retired in 2009.

Of course, on the flip side of the coin, tons of all-time MLB greats have pitched no-hitters or perfect games. Randy Johnson, Cy Young, Addie Joss, Nolan Ryan, and Tom Seaver among the endless list of Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers who have completed the task. Lincecum is more likely to be grouped in with the Humber, Braden, and Sanchez, among the many that have thrown no-hitters or perfect games at this point. His peak was phenomenal, but it was only two seasons. Randy Johnson had more than two phenomenal seasons. Cy Young had a ton of phenomenal seasons. Nolan Ryan had a ton of phenomenal seasons. Could Lincecum join that second group of Hall of Famers still? It is possible, but unlikely. Lincecum is and has struggled seemingly every other start in the past few seasons. His last start before the no-hitter had him give up four earned runs in six innings. That is not a one off thing for Lincecum this season or for 2012 or 2013. He has clearly lost a step, as he is giving up more walks per nine, less strikeouts per nine, and more home runs per nine these past few years than he did during his glory years. Way back in 2008 and 2009, it was talked about how his delivery would impact the longevity of his career and it appears it has. From time to time these days, however we do get glimpses of the sure thing that was Tim Lincecum years ago. These glimpses appear to be nothing more than just that, glimpses, not signs of recovering into the pitcher he once was. It would take a herculean improvement in the years to come to be truly compared to whom many are comparing him to after yesterday’s performance, Sandy Koufax, which is unlikely. While he may never be that killer arm once again, two no-hitters against the same team in a calendar year is still a great accomplishment. The others to accomplish such a feat are Virgil Trucks, Johnny Vander Meer (no-hitters in back-to-back starts), Allie Reynolds, Nolan Ryan, and Roy Halladay. A mixed group in terms of overall career trajectory, regardless Lincecum joined a very rare club Wednesday afternoon. 

6/21/14 Minor League News & Notes for the Week

6/21/14 Minor League News & Notes for the Week

- It has been a very newsworthy week for Chicago Cubs prospects, as Kris Bryant joined the AAA Iowa Cubs on Thursday, already hitting one home run in just eight plate appearances thus far. This resulted in the Cubs demoting third baseman Christian Villanueva down to AA, as he is blocked by Olt at the big league level, Bryant in AAA now, and had a weak on base percentage of .283. 2014 fourth overall pick Kyle Schwarber was promoted from Short-Season-A Ball to Low-A Ball in Kane County after hitting four home runs in 24 plate appearances. This is about what was expected of Schwarber being a polished college power bat in the Northwest League. Third baseman Jeimer Candelario was demoted from High-A Ball to Low-A Ball in Kane County. In 244 plate appearances, Candelario had an on base percentage of just .270.

- Two notes on Red Sox prospects this week, as Mookie Betts continued to prove that he has big league-caliber stuff, posting an OPS of 1.054 over the past week, and an OPS of .888 on the season in AAA Pawtucket. Betts plays second base, so he is currently blocked by Pedroia, but his bat could play in the outfield. Top pitching prospect Henry Owens has been tearing up AA this season, posting an ERA of 1.99 after 86 innings pitched. Owens had a quality start Friday night, throwing seven innings, walking two, striking out eight, and allowing no earned runs.

- Twenty year old Twins prospect Jose Berrios posted a great start in High-A Ball, striking out nine in seven innings, walking only two, and allowing no earned runs. Berrios currently has an ERA of 2.09 after 77.1 innings pitched. He is almost certain to be promoted to AA later this year. Arguably the top prospect in all of baseball, Byron Buxton, has yet to return after a wrist injury. Kohl Stewart had a short start last Saturday, pitching only four innings, striking out three and allowing no earned runs. This short start was due to the MWL All-Star Game that Stewart wanted to pitch in. He has an ERA of 2.44 in 59 innings pitched in High-A Ball. AAA pitcher Trevor May has been great since being acquired, posting an ERA of 2.77 in 74.2 innings pitched. In his last start, on Monday, May pitched 8.1 innings, striking out eleven, walking two, and only one earned run. I would be shocked if he is not called up to the Twins soon.

- Miami Marlins top prospect Andrew Heaney made his major league debut on Thursday against the Mets, giving up only one run, a home run to David Wright, in six innings pitched. Third baseman Colin Moran struggled this week, having only one hit in sixteen plate appearances while in High-A Ball.

- Mets enigma Travis d'Arnaud spent the past week tearing up AAA Las Vegas, posting an OPS of 1.400 in 35 plate appearances with four homers. Although he looked like a deer in headlights during his stint with the Mets this year, expect him to be called up relatively soon, especially if he keeps putting up great numbers, despite being in player friendly Las Vegas. On Wednesday, outfielder Brandon Nimmo was promoted to AA after posting an OBP of .448 in High-A. He has had one hit in nine plate appearances, which is meaningless due to the sample size.

- Future Mariners ace Taijuan Walker had a mixed week in two starts. Last Saturday he pitched 6.2 innings, giving up one run and striking out seven. He followed that performance by pitching five innings on Thursday night, giving up three earned runs, two of which were home runs, and striking out only four. Walker has had his struggles this year in AAA, posting an ERA of 4.57 in 21.2 innings pitched. Other top Mariners prospect D.J. Peterson has been killing it this past week, posting an OPS of 1.744 in four games in High-A, and an OPS of .975 in 285 plate appearances. High-A pitcher Dylan Unsworth has had a disappointing season, posting a 6.46 ERA, but pitched a great game yesterday, pitching seven innings, striking out twelve, walking zero, and allowing zero earned runs. Unsworth has really struggled in High-A, so perhaps this is the start to him adjusting to advanced batters somewhat.

-  White Sox top prospect Matt Davidson continues to show how weak the White Sox’s prospect depth is, as he has put up a good OPS of .758 in 28 plate appearances over the past week, considerably higher than the .633 OPS he has put up through 266 plate appearances this year. AAA shortstop Carlos Sanchez put up an OPS of .987 over the past week, a large rise from the .791 he has posted on the season. With Alexei Ramirez having an above average season for the White Sox, Sanchez will probably remain in AAA for the foreseeable future. Starting pitching prospect Francellis Montas has been gold in High-A, posting an ERA of 1.76 in 51 innings pitched. Montas had a rough outing this past week, allowing four earned runs and five walks in seven innings pitched.

- In Kansas City Royals news, Kyle Zimmer remains out due to a back muscle injury for a few more weeks. There has to be some concern regarding his long-term health. Shortstop prospect Raul Mondesi returned from injury yesterday to join the High-A team, going hitless for the day. Sean Manaea has been having such a strange year in High-A, posting an ERA of 4.89, but striking out 12.32 batters per nine innings. He had a good short outing Saturday, being pulled after four innings, presumably for the all-star game. Yesterday, in five innings, Manaea struck out six, walked two, and allowed three earned runs. His fellow High-A starter Christian Binford has had a great season, posting a 2.19 ERA in 70 innings pitched. In his last start one week ago, Binford pitched six innings, striking out five, walking none, and allowing no earned runs. Binford is likely headed to AA sooner than later.

- Over the past week, top Yankees prospect, catcher Gary Sanchez has shown some improvement, posting an OPS of .824 for the week, an increase from his season long OPS of .748 in 246 plate appearances. Outfielder Aaron Judge was promoted to High-A Tampa this week after posting an OPS of .958 in 278 plate appearances in Low-A ball. Reliever Jose Ramirez was called up to the big league club and has been struggling, posting a 6.75 ERA in 5.1 innings in relief.

- Likely trade piece and Blue Jays starting pitcher prospect Aaron Sanchez was promoted to AAA about a week ago and has struggled in two outings, posting an ERA of 6.00 in nine innings pitched. As far as his trade value, his slight struggles in AAA probably eliminate the Blue Jays from the Samardzija or Price contests. Pitcher Daniel Norris made his first start in AA on Wednesday, striking out nine, but allowing four hits and four earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched. Norris has been gold in High-A ball this year, posting and ERA of 1.22 in 66.1 innings pitched. John Stilson has been very productive as a reliever in AAA this season, posting an ERA of 3.00 in thirty innings pitched. Not quite sure why he has not been called up to the Blue Jays bullpen.

- Although San Francisco Giants prospect Kyle Crick has a 3.88 ERA in 48.2 innings pitched in AA, he’s been really inconsistent lately, giving up four runs, then one run, then zero, then four, then one, then one, then four. I think he has had some command issues that inflate his walks and his ERA lately, which hopefully can be fixed. Andrew Susac is an interesting case, as he has put up an OPS of .815 for the year in AAA, but has been ice cold for the past week. He did suffer a concussion earlier in the year, so I am not sure if he is completely over it. Sometimes guys like Justin Morneau just struggle to recover. Regardless, he is blocked at the major league level by Posey, but could very well end up as the backup catcher by the end of the year for the San Francisco Giants. About a week ago relief pitching prospect Derek Law was diagnosed with a torn UCL and will most likely undergo Tommy John surgery, although he has yet to as of press time. Second baseman and shortstop Joe Panik has been called up by the Giants and will join the team tonight against the Diamondbacks.

- Top Arizona Diamondbacks prospect Archie Bradley who was shut down with arm strain a while ago, threw three innings of a rookie-league game on Monday. They are taking it slow with him. Third baseman prospect Jake Lamb has been tearing up AA, posting an OPS of .981 in 286 innings. This past week, he has posted an OPS of 1.015. There is no reason he should not be called up to AAA at this point. Reliever Jake Barrett was promoted to AAA where he has been mixed in two starts, giving up one run in a one inning performance and no runs in another one inning performance. He posted an ERA of 2.39 in 26.1 innings pitched in AA, so he should adjust with time.

- Rangers third baseman prospect Joey Gallo has been in AA for two weeks and has an OPS of 1.109, down from his OPS of 1.199 in High-A ball. I would not be shocked if he finished the season in AAA, which would be especially impressive given that he is only twenty years of age. Outfielder Nick Williams from a seven day DL stint yesterday, hitting one single in five plate appearances in his return in rookie ball. Nineteen year old second baseman prospect Travis Demeritte has played well in Low-A ball, posting an OPS of .854, but has chilled off posting an OPS of only .784 over the past week.

- Pirates top prospect Gregory Polanco was called up roughly a week and a half ago, posting an OPS of .864 in 53 plate appearances with the big league club. Pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow has absolutely been on a tear in High-A ball, posting an ERA of 1.71 and K/9 of 10.60 in 52.2 innings pitched. Glasnow has a shutout streak of 21.1 innings pitched currently. He really should be promoted to AA soon. Pitcher Nick Kingham was promoted to AAA Friday, where he pitched a seven inning, eight strikeout, no earned runs gem. On Wednesday, Kingham pitched seven innings, allowing only one run, walking zero. The Pirates could probably call Kingham up to the bullpen, but they would be best served letting him develop the rest of the year in AAA.

- It has been a real bummer for the Houston Astros when it comes to starting pitcher prospect Mark Appel. In 17.1 innings pitched for the High-A ball club, Appel has an ERA of 11.94. This guy was at one time considered the most major league ready pitcher in his draft class and now it is likely he will be sent down to Low-A ball. Domingo Santana has performed well at the AAA level, posting of .867 in 332 plate appearances for the season. As of late he has been on a tear, posting an OPS of 1.119 in 39 plate appearances. No idea if he is going to be a late season callup or if they will wait until next year. Low-A pitching prospect Michael Feliz has been impressive as of late, not allowing an earned run in 22.1 straight innings. Feliz has an ERA of 2.68 in 43.2 innings pitched on the year. Outfielder prospect Teoscar Hernandez has been unbelievably good this year in High-A, posting an OPS of .927 in 305 plate appearances, but over the past week, he has had a bit of a cold streak, only hitting for a .154 average.

- Top Baltimore Orioles pitching prospect Dylan Bundy made his return after Tommy John surgery in Low-A ball, pitching five innings on Sunday and striking out six, while allowing no walks. Ton of realistic potential is still there in Bundy. Another pitching prospect, Hunter Harvey, has been good in 60.1 innings pitched, posting an ERA of 3.13 over the course of the season. His last two starts on June 4 and June 10 in Low-A ball have proven to be problematic, posting a cumulative ERA of 14.85 for those two starts in 6.2 innings pitched. Orioles top catching prospect Michael Ohlman has really struggled this season, posting an OPS of .678 in 237 plate appearances in AA. Over the past week things have been looking up with him posting an OPS of .935 in 25 plate appearances.

More teams and prospects will be covered later in the week

Beisbol’s Blog

What to Make of Miami Marlin Andrew Heaney So Far

What to Make of Miami Marlin Andrew Heaney So Far

            Last night, June 19, 2014, starting pitcher Andrew Heaney made his major league debut with the Miami Marlins, pitching six innings, allowing four hits, one of which was a home run and the only run scored against Heaney and one walk. Heaney’s thunder was taken away by Zack Wheeler who pitched his first complete game shutout, in which he struck out eight. Make no mistake, Wheeler was the better pitcher last night, but I am not in the camp that he will be the better pitcher in the long-run.

Left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney is the number one prospect for the Miami Marlins in a relatively deep farm system. Heaney, originally drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays out of high school, opted to attend college at Oklahoma State University, where he was drafted as the ninth overall pick by the Miami Marlins in 2012, after his junior season. He showed massive improvement during his junior season, in which he had a K/9 ratio of 10.65, up from 6.85, which he posted during his sophomore season. He also saw his BB/9 ratio drop from 3.09 to 1.67 from his sophomore to junior season at Oklahoma State University. He led the Big 12 in strikeouts in 2012, throwing 140 strikeouts. After being drafted, Heaney struggled slightly in Rookie/Low-A ball, posting a 4.95 ERA with Low-A ball team, the Greenville Grasshoppers. Prior to his first full minor league season in 2013, Heaney was ranked 43^rd by Baseball America and 81^st by MLB.com. He exceeded those and all expectations, posting a 0.88 ERA in 61.2 innings pitched in High-A ball, then a 2.94 ERA in 33.2 innings pitched for AA Jacksonville Suns.

Coming into the 2014 season, Heaney’s stock skyrocketed, being declared the 30^th best prospect by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus and the 29^th best prospect. He was widely agreed as the best Miami Marlins prospect after Jose Fernandez and Jake Marisnick were called up. Containing to pitch for the Jacksonville Suns, Heaney posted a 2.35 ERA in 53.2 innings pitched. Before his callup this past week, Heaney pitched 23 innings in AAA with an ERA of 2.74, with a 10.6 K/9. While numbers only tell part of the story when evaluating a prospect and how successful they will be in Major League Baseball, pitchers who struggle in the minors rarely work out in the majors. This is not relevant to Andrew Heaney as he played well in the minor leagues by any possible definition.

Heaney’s fastball, which were the majority of his pitches last night, sits at about 91-93, hitting 95 frequently, and topping out at 97. Although scouts describe his fastball as a plus due to the movement of the pitch, batters tend to make enough contact with it to be concerned at times. I am trying not to put too much judgment into the one game last night, where a considerable amount of contact was made off of Heaney’s fastball, but it is tempting to look at it at make a judgment. His slider/sinker is his best pitch (easy plus pitch), but only made up 17.6% of the 91 pitches Heaney threw. 64.4% of those slider/sinker pitches that he threw were called strikes. His curveball is about league average and could develop into above league average. Heaney showed a lack of confidence in the curveball, throwing it only 1.1% of the time in last night’s game. It is probably his weakest secondary pitch at this time, so slowly increasing the amount of times he throws it throughout the season is not a bad idea. Heaney has an above average changeup which induced some swing and misses by batters. His changeup maxed out at 83.5 and induced a good amount of groundballs. To paint a better picture of Andrew Heaney’s night against the New York Mets, let us take a look at the PitchF/X plot.

Where the ball was when it left his hand

Where the ball was when it reached the plate

            Heaney is described as having plus control, which the first graphic affirms, but the second graphic shows issues with command. Like stated, a number of his pitches have movement, often appearing erratic at times. I would not worry about it yet, it is one start and this is the only PitchF/X data we have to go off of. It could be nerves, as it is his first major league start. If the erratic command is there for a full season, it is worth discussing, but it is just an interesting thing to point out for now.

Pitch speed

            For completeness, I wanted to post the speed of each pitch Andrew Heaney threw throughout the game and it is normal. You see the drop-offs for secondary pitches and a slightly decrease in fastball velocity after 90 pitches. About average stuff you would see in most pitchers.

            Where does Andrew Heaney end up? Most sites like Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com predict him as a 2/3 starter on the Marlins, which seems likely to me. I am not reaching this conclusion from his first outing against the New York Mets, but rather the success he has shown at the minor league level. He did not dominate minor league ball like an ace would, but pitched very well at the lower league level and has two plus pitches and two pitches that are going to end up above average. That easily fits the profile of a 2/3 starter on a winning team. When Jose Fernandez returns, the Marlins may have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, with both Fernandez and Heaney.

Clips from Heaney's MLB Debut with the Miami Marlins

Did Clayton Kershaw Throw The Greatest Game Ever?

Did Clayton Kershaw Throw The Greatest Game Ever?

            Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw had the best game yet in his seven year career Wednesday night, June 18, 2014. In nine innings, Kershaw threw fifteen strikeouts and walked zero over the course of nine innings. It would have been a perfect game had Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez not made a throwing error. While I understand the traditional importance of no-hitters and perfect games, the error proves how meaningless the terms are outside of being cool moments. When evaluating a pitcher, one should look at everything the pitcher can control and as little else as possible. Hanley Ramirez’s error does not change everything Clayton Kershaw did. Kershaw could not control that error. By this logic, the ideal greatest game error would be twenty-seven strikeouts with zero walks, but the odds of that game occurring are very slim. This type of idea leads back to the old game score system created by Bill James.

            Basically, game score adds points for each out recorded, each strikeout, and each inning after four innings, while subtracting for each hit, each earned run, each unearned run, and each walk. Each pitcher starts out with fifty points and then the additions and subtractions are then carried out as the game progresses. For a more detailed explanation, just check out the Fangraphs or Wikipedia pages on how to calculate a score in-depth. It is an old and relatively rudimentary system, but one that I find fair to pitchers. The system has a maximum/best possible score of 114, something that has never and will never likely be achieved. Clayton Kershaw’s game score last night was 102, the second highest recorded score in history (for fairness purposes I am excluding outliers who pitched more than nine innings, such as Joe Oeschger 26 inning performance). This illustrates what a magnificent performance it truly was. There have been twenty-three perfect games in the history of Major League Baseball and Kershaw’s no-hitter was better than each and every one of them. If you are wondering how that is possible, it basically boils down to strikeouts. Mark Buehrle and Dallas Braden only had six strikeouts in their perfect games, with the remaining outs either being ground outs or flyball outs. When it comes to measuring pitcher performance, not all outs are created equally, as the pitcher should try and eliminate the need for the field to make a play to get an out, going back to the best hypothetical game is the twenty-seven strikeout game.

            If we were just discussing good or great games, I would not be as concerned with walks, but when you are attempting to measure all-time great games, walks become a big concern, as they leave a runner on base with the pitcher unable to change that fact by themselves (unless the runner is picked off the bag). That lone walked man on base could eventually score in a no-hitter after a few flyballs to the outfield, allow the score of the game to change, which is why walks are measured in these types of all-time great performances. Just as the goal of a batter is to get on base, the goal of a pitcher is to ensure runners do not get on base. At the risk of being repetitive, when the ball is hit it is up to the fielder to ensure the runner does not get on base, whereas a strikeout is the pitcher himself ensuring that the runner does not get on base.

            The greatest game ever pitched happened May 6, 1998, as Kerry Wood posted a game score of 105, the closest to perfect ever recorded in major league history. Unlike Kershaw’s no-hitter or the twenty three perfect games, Wood did allow one infield single to Ricky Gutiérrez, which fans argue to this very day that the hit should’ve been an error charged on Kevin Orie (and there is a good case there for that). Wood struck out twenty, allowing no walks in the process, during his demolition of the Houston Astros. This brings up one big imperfection with game score, it does not take into account the team the player pitched against. Numerous perfect games and no-hitters were pitched against Tampa Bay Rays teams that finished with poor records. Clayton Kershaw pitched against the 2014 Colorado Rockies, who have a slightly above average league offense. Troy Tulowitzki is having an insane season, especially at home, posting an OPS+ of 184, which makes him the frontrunner for National League Most Valuable Player so far. His OPS+ is likely to drop some as the season progresses, but we are at a point where it is no longer small sample size, rather Tulowtizki having an all-time great season for a shortstop. While Kershaw failed to strikeout Tulowitzki, Tulowitzki failed to reach base on a hit or walk. Outside of Tulowitzki, Morneau and Blackmon are having good seasons, but the rest of the lineup is average to say the least. The 1998 Houston Astros won 102 games, having five players with an OPS+ over 120, two of which were Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. Wood struck out Craig Biggio once, Moises Alou three times, Jeff Bagwell three times, and Derek Bell twice among the other Astros batters. Wood faced tougher competition and struck them out more often, while allowing the same amount of walks Kershaw did, zero.

            Three games closely follow Kershaw’s game score of 102: Matt Cain’s perfect game, one of Nolan Ryan’s no-hitters, and Sandy Koufax’s perfect game. All three games received a game score of 101. Ryan’s game and Koufax’s game both faced similarly-level talent as Kershaw’s no-hitter, while Matt Cain’s perfect game came against a horrendous rebuilding Houston Astros team. There are obviously other ways to measure how well a pitcher performed other than game score, because as I have stated, it is a fairly basic way of measurement. If one wants to use some other form of measurement to try and rank Kershaw’s performance higher or lower, that is understandable, but for discussion’s sake I am trying to keep this fairly simple and easy to understand.

            So, did Clayton Kershaw throw the best game in baseball history? No, I do not see any way to spin it as that as you can go with Wood as the best nine inning performance in the history of baseball or you can go with some deadball pitchers who pitched 20+ innings, which inflated their game score. One may also try and argue that Koufax’s perfect game or Nolan Ryan’s no-hitter came against better talent, but it really is splitting hairs there. Is it fair to say that Clayton Kershaw just pitched the greatest no-hitter in the history of Major League Baseball? It is absolutely fair to state that it is the greatest no-hitter in the history of baseball because of the number of strikeouts, zero walks, the game score, and the level of talent Clayton Kershaw was up against. Regardless of where one wants to rank his performance on the all-time great chart, last night we witnessed true greatness by a pitcher.

Potential Buyers & Sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline (6/16/14 Edition)

Potential Buyers & Sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline

Big Sellers: Chicago Cubs – Make no mistake, the Cubs are positioned to finish with one of the worst records in Major League Baseball, thus have no real interest in buying. Numerous Cubs have been linked to possible deadline trades including Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel, Luis Valbuena, Darwin Barney, and possibly Nate Schierholtz. Per Bruce Levin, the Detroit Tigers were interested in both Barney and Schierholtz, but both have tanked their value with poor seasons, especially Schierholtz. Other teams linked to Darwin Barney include the Yankees and Rangers. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that the Red Sox have an active interest in acquiring Schierholtz, as their outfielders have a collective .214 batting average. I think it is likely that Schierholtz to the Red Sox gets done sooner rather than later due to their need of another outfielder. If both Barney and Schierholtz get traded, I would expect lottery ticket-esque prospects akin to Corey Black, and not much else in return. While there are little links to trading Valbuena right now, his rising stock and value as a utility guy make him a target to be traded in late July. Hammel and, more importantly, Samardzija are the two big arms that are likely to be traded at the deadline. According to Bob Nightengale the Giants, Yankees, Orioles, Angels, Red Sox, and Blue Jays all appear to be in on Samardzija. The Chicago Sun-Times also reports the Mariners to be interested in not only Samardzija, but Hammel as well. I am not sure I buy the Giants rumor, and even if I did, I just do not see the pieces there for the Giants to trade, as their top prospects, all arms, have struggled this year. The Yankees need pitching, but they cannot make a competitive package for Samardzija, as it would focus around Gary Sanchez, who I do not believe is a strong enough anchor in a big trade. You have to keep in mind Samardzija has another year of team control under arbitration in 2015, so he is not a rental like David Price would be. The two most intriguing teams of those mentioned are the Orioles and the Mariners. Some combination of Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, and Hunter Harvey would make up a trade package for Samardzija, but I am not sure if the Orioles would be willing to deal all three, or even two, for the Cubs ace. If I am Jed Hoyer, I would try to angle for Dylan Bundy, who has seemingly recovered completely from Tommy John surgery, and the rising Hunter Harvey, who will definitely start for some team in the future. I think Bundy can still be an ace on a winning big league team, so the Cubs should move Heaven and Earth to try and obtain him. The Seattle Mariners really should make every attempt at Samardzija, even if it means giving up top prospect Taijuan Walker, as they have had poor experiences developing prospects and could have a proven arm in Samardzija. Some combination of Victor Sanchez, Tyler Pike, and James Paxton could be added to a package with Walker, which would be difficult for the Chicago Cubs to turn down. If the Mariners only go after Hammel, who has been dominant all year, posting an ERA+ of 139 so far, expect a package of some sort of those secondary prospects just mentioned; Sanchez, Pike, and Paxton. Gordon Wittenmeyer expects Hammel to end up in Seattle, despite the Braves and Blue Jays being potentially interested in Hammel.

Buyers: Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays want a starting pitcher. They, correctly, do not see Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, and Brandon Morrow as reliable arms in a tight race in a tough division, let alone arms to trust to start in the playoffs. Bob Elliot reports big overtures have been made towards Jeff Samardzija and David Price, both of which are under team control this year and next. Buster Olney seems to think they do not have the pieces for either, but I disagree. Aaron Sanchez has command issues and a slight injury history with his shoulder, but he is still a top twenty-five prospect according to just about everyone. Some package of Hutchison, Stroman, Osuna, and Norris would likely have to be included in any package for either ace, but Alex Anthopoulos has shown a willingness to not hold onto his prospects too tightly in the big trades made with the Marlins and Mets. Jon Heyman seems to think that the Blue Jays are more likely to go for a short-term like James Shields, but the Royals are still in the playoff hunt and I do not think Dayton Moore is going to trade a piece that big, so I would rule that out regardless of what Heyman says. A.J. Burnett and Justin Masterson might be available as rentals depending how their teams trend toward the trade deadline. Burnett is the more likely of the two as the Phillies will not sniff the playoffs this season, regardless of how hard Ruben Amaro Jr. keeps hoping. The one hiccup in a Burnett to Toronto deal is Burnett has essentially a no trade clause in his contract, allowing him to block trades to twenty-one teams. The teams on Burnett’s no trade list have not been disclosed, so there is uncertainty there.

Maybe Sellers: Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates could be buyers, but the refusal to pay A.J. Burnett shows that they will not make any sort of meaningful deadline trade to keep the struggling Pirates in contention in the National League Central. Paul Swydan expects Russell Martin and Francisco Liriano to be moved either before the deadline or in the offseason. Gerry Fraley reports that Gaby Sanchez is available and that the Texas Rangers are taking a look at him after Mitch Moreland’s injury. Jason Grilli will be a free agent after this season, so we will really know if the Pirates are buyers or sellers if Grilli is moved. This is not a 94-68 team like last year and they play in a relatively tough division with the Cardinals and Reds, so I think it is fair to say that they should and will become sellers from all indications. The only thing stopping me from calling them sure fire sellers is Andrew McCutchen heating up and Gregory Polanco getting called up and producing in his limited amount of time. Maybe Polanco keeps them from selling off, but it is too difficult to say at this point.

Maybe Buyers: Texas Rangers – The Rangers will be buyers at the trade deadline, despite playing in the now lively AL West. There is pretty much no shot that they catch the Oakland Athletics, despite it being June, with the number of injuries the team has suffered. Jurickson Profar is likely done for the season. Prince Fielder is done for the season. Donnie Murphy just got off the DL. Tanner Scheppers is on the DL. Mitch Moreland is on the DL and might be out for a while. Alexi Ogando is on the DL. Matt Harrison is on the DL. Martin Perez is on the DL. Geovany Soto is on the DL. Derek Holland is on the DL. Yu Darvish has had neck stiffness and is day-to-day. Does that sound like a team that should be buying in an already tough division? Nope, but Ranger GM Jon Daniels has expressed interest in buying to try and stay in the AL West race or even wildcard race. The Rangers were dealt a big blow when Kendrys Morles did not sign with them, leaving their first baseman situation problematic. Career minor leaguer, thirty-two year old Brad Snyder is currently their first basemen, so they will have to make a move if Moreland is out for a longer period of time than expected. The Rangers are in the market for a quality starting pitcher, looking at Jeff Samardzija or perhaps Jon Lester if things completely fall apart for the Red Sox and they become sellers at the trade deadline. I am sure a package involving phenom Joey Gallo would draw interest from the Chicago Cubs. David Price is also in the mix as a possible Rangers target, but he too would force Jon Daniels to give up Joey Gallo. Daniels is well-known for valuing his prospects too highly, and with Gallo already valued high by many, Daniels may see him as untradeable, killing the Rangers chances of getting a Price/Samardzija-type arm. The Rangers are the most likely team to flip from buyers to seller from now until the deadline, as many things can still happen and Jon Daniels is hard to figure out. I’ll keep them as buyers until the fat lady sings (or Jon Daniels finally folds his hand).

Sellers: Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are completely out of the NL West race and have been a disaster in terms of run differential. The team is likely to end up with a bad record and a high draft pick, so will likely be looking to move some pieces to acquire young talent. Ken Rosenthal states that Arroyo, McCarthy, Hill, Thatcher, and Parra will be on the trading block by July 31. Recently sent down Trevor Cahill will be near impossible to trade without the Diamondbacks eating a significant sum of the large amount of money owed to him in the future. Gregorius has been a target of the Mets, but with Tony La Russa taking power away from Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers, it is unknown whether he would be willing to trade Gregorius. Arroyo and McCarthy would make great 4/5 starters on many contending teams including, but not limited to, the Yankees, Red Sox, Reds, Angels, Giants, and Marlins among others. The Diamondbacks will not receive top prospects that a David Price or Jeff Samardzija would bring, but could fetch quality young bats from the Yankees in Eric Jagielo or the Red Sox in Garin Cecchini or even Mookie Betts, or a young arm like Justin Nicolino from the Marlins. Outside of a few pieces, this is really a big rebuilding process for La Russa and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Likely Sellers: New York Mets – Although Alderson recently said the team has the resources to be buyers at the deadline, I think they are more likely to be minor sellers as they’re already five and a half games back on the lead in the National League East. I do believe GM Sandy Alderson when he says Jon Niese is not on the trading block. The team could and very well likely will contend next year, but with injuries and inconsistency the Mets will be making at the least some minor moves. Somehow forty year old Bobby Abreu has heated up the Mets otherwise dismal offense. Over the past month Abreu has posted a weighted on base average of .398, which is out of this world good if you do not understand wOBA. In 91 plate appearances for the Mets, Abreu has posted an OPS of .846, while being a solid right fielder. It really is crazy, but he could be the top bat at the trade deadline. The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers are the two teams that come to mind as potential destinations, as Nori Aoki has been poor offensively in RF for the contending Royals and Torii Hunter has looked lost for the Tigers. Maybe the Mets can fetch someone like Sean Manaea or Devon Travis for him, but that’s a big maybe for a rental on an old man that is extremely hot right now. Peter Gammons seems to think that Bartolo Colon could be a potential trade target and he is right. Colon has been better than his ERA would indicate and would draw plenty of attention for teams looking for a mid/back rotation starter. I have listed a ton of them, but Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Reds, Angels, Mariners, etc. all make sense. He could at least fetch a lottery ticket-type prospect or two from one of those teams, which I think Alderson would do a deal for. I would not expect any cornerstone moves for the trade deadline, but I really do think they will be buyers (or attempt to be buyers) in the offseason.

Buyers: Los Angeles Angels – The Angels are finally competitive in the American League West this year, largely due to Ianetta, Pujols, and Hamilton finally producing with some decent pitching. Decent pitching, however, does not win you an AL West pennant, as Wilson and Weaver have been slightly above league average and Garrett Richards has pitched better than anyone could have reasonably expected, but the four and five starting pitcher spots have been rocky to say the least. Tyler Skaggs has yet to live up to the hype that I once bought into (and still believe is possible in the future) and Hector Santiago and Matt Shoemaker are not starting pitchers on a team that wants to make a deep playoff run. Bob Nightengale has listed the Angels as one of the teams in on this year’s prize, Jeff Samardzija. The problem is that the Angels do not have the prospects to match the Orioles, Mariners, Blue Jays, or Rangers among the others that are in on Samardzija. Buster Olney believes they have enough to make a go at the other Cubs starter, Jason Hammel. Mark Sappington and Hunter Green might be enough to get a Jason Hammel deal done, but other offers for Hammel could be better. Nick Cafardo seems to think the Angels may wait until the offseason to go after Jon Lester, but maybe the Angels could throw out the entire farm for renting him as they are in striking distance. A minor need would be a left-handed relief arm and Alden Gonzalez indicates that they could go after Antonio Bastardo, Troy Patton, or Sean Marshall. I would not say the Angels are in a great spot because their farm system is just too weak to get a top pitcher, which they need, but they may be able to acquire a Jason Hammel-type and power though the post-season if they make the playoffs.

Buyers: Detroit Tigers – Everyone knows the biggest need for the Detroit Tigers is a bullpen arm, specifically a closer. Joba Chamberlain and Al Albuquerque have been good in the bullpen for them, but they need at least another quality bullpen arm. Joe Nathan has been bad during his tenure with the Tigers to say the least. I have not seen them linked to any name specifically for a bullpen/closer role, but I would assume the three previously mentioned (Bastardo, Patton, Marshall), Huston Street, and possibly Grilli if the Pirates start selling off. Another major hole for the Tigers has been shortstop, which has largely been played by Andrew Romine, who has put up an OPS+ of 45, which is horrendous. Jose Iglesias is not going to be playing this season, so there is a real dilemma there. Recent callup Eugenio Suarez has played beyond expectations in limited plate appearances, so they may stick with him. No links at this time, but I think there is an outside chance they make a play for Darwin Barney to use as an utility guy, if not SS if Suarez finds himself outmatched. Another hole for the Detroit Tigers has been Torii Hunter, who is putting up slightly below average offensive numbers, but has performed poorly in right fielder. Nate Schierholtz is someone on the Tigers radar and I think they should go after Bobby Abreu. In the case of Schierholtz, it would take much lesser prospects to obtain him, but he has performed poorly this season too. It is really hard to assign a value on Abreu at this point, but they should go after him.

Sellers: San Diego Padres – This season has been quite the disappointment to many Padres fans, already thirteen and a half games back in the division. Outside of Seth Smith, Huston Street and Andrew Cashner, the team has performed poorly to say the least. Padres closer Huston Street is almost certain to be traded by the deadline, as he has performed well and there are number of teams interested in him (Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels). Ken Rosenthal lists Street, Seth Smith, Ian Kennedy, and Chris Denorfia as players likely to be traded if not by the deadline, then during the offseason as the San Diego Padres organization undergoes changes. Ian Kennedy is in a similar spot as Jason Hammel in that he is a quality starting pitcher, but not top tier like Samardzija or Price. Angels and Blue Jays could be interested in Kennedy.  The Orioles, Rays, and Tigers might be interested in Smith as a corner outfielder. I would expect the Tigers to give Denorfia a look as a right fielder if they cannot get something done with Abreu or Smith. All of the teams interested have a fair amount of prospects, which could boost an already strong farm system.

Likely Buyers: Seattle Mariners – Although they are already seven games back in the American League West, they have shown some signs of life and have a good enough farm system to get some pieces to stay in contention. I have mentioned numerous times that they are in the market for pitching. They have been linked to David Price for some time now, but Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik has yet to pull the trigger on any sort of deal for Price, which would undoubted require trading Taijuan Walker, something he has seemingly been against. Price, Samardzija, and Hammel are the three starting pitchers that have been linked to the Mariners, with Hammel being the strongest link. Erasmo Ramirez and Brandon Maurer have been bad in their stints as Mariners starters, but to be fair to Maurer they called him up a bit early (something that I worry they will do with Taijuan Walker). Hammel or Ian Kennedy at the least would keep them in the game and a Price or Samardzija would give them a significant boost. The Mariners are one of the teams supposedly in on Lester, but I do not see them giving him a long-term deal. Standing pat and hoping James Paxton comes back healthy will not get them to the playoffs. Their lineup might be passable if Brad Miller was not the shortstop. Miller has a disastrous OPS of .525. Maybe they give a look at Ben Zobrist or Darwin Barney to play the position. The market this deadline is just so shallow on possible shortstops. I think they can still make a go at a playoff spot, but they need to make moves, not sit.

Jimmy Rollins: Hall of Famer?

Jimmy Rollins: Hall of Famer?

            Yesterday, June 14, 2014, Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins surpassed Mike Schmidt’s record for most hits with the Philadelphia Phillies, hitting number 2,235 off Edwin Jackson of the Chicago Cubs in his third at bat. One would have to immediately wonder if breaking a mark held by Mike Schmidt, whom many would consider the greatest third baseman of all-time, puts Rollins in the discussion for a hall of fame spot. Rollins is not a guy you completely rule out upon immediately hearing his name, but has he achieved enough to be voted into the hall of fame, let alone be in the discussion.

            35 year old Rollins has played in Major League Baseball for fifteen years, all of which he has spent with the Philadelphia Phillies. His first four years with the team were subpar offensively statistically speaking, but Rollins had two of his three all-star appearances within those first four years, if you were to include his 2000 14 game big league stint, which I am including out of kindness. His OPS+, which normalizes park effects and allows us to compare players offensive output in a fair way, with 100 being league average, for those first four seasons are 83, 93, 85, and 90. Another comprehensive statistic to measure the offensive output for a given player is wOBA, weighted on base average, which also paints Rollins as subpar in those first four seasons, with two average scores, one below average score, and a poor score. Why exactly did Rollins get elected to two all-star teams (the value of an all-star team appearance can be debated, but I will leave it alone for now) with such mediocre offense? The answer is found in his defense. Measuring defense comprehensively and well with statistics is just not possible at this point in time, so when one measures defense it should be by the eye largely. A statistic like defensive WAR is weak due to how it poorly measures defense (if it is not, then Andrelton Simmons is already one of the greatest players of all-time), UZR is weird with locations, and errors are often left up to the official scorer, who may be incompetent or biased.

            Going beyond just those four years, Rollins has been one of the premier defensive shortstops in Major League Baseball during his tenure. His quick decision making, his speed, his agility, and his arm all make him a top defensive shortstop, making up for what he may lack offensively. Rollins probably does not get enough credit defensively due to playing alongside Omar Vizquel, who is unquestionably one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all-time. I am sure most who are reading this have seen Rollins play at least once on television or online, allowing even the most casual fan to see what a tremendous defense asset Jimmy Rollins is at shortstop. So much of defensive ability in baseball history is unfortunately left to the individuals who saw a player play or covered a team, which is why Honus Wagner is considered one of the greatest, if not the greatest shortstop, of all-time. Is Rollins on the level of Wagner, Vizquel, or Ozzie Smith? Most likely not, but that question would be better suited for an actual baseball historian. Is Rollins defense a big positive into moving him into the hall of fame discussion? Without a doubt, his defense plays one big role.

            Rollins added to his mastery as a defensive shortstop with some quality seasons offensively, posting three seasons with an OPS over .800, six seasons with an OPS+ better than 100, and a wOBA north of .340, including his 2007 Most Valuable Player award winning season in which he posted a weighted on base average of .371. Only once did Rollins have a batting average over .300 and that was his 14 game rookie ‘season’. While all of those are positives, with the exception of the 2007 MVP season, Rollins has posted merely good numbers at best. Rollins possesses nothing extraordinary in counting statistics (runs, home runs, stolen bases) outside of his team record 2,235 hits. I would certainly hope someone would not use the argument that “Schmidt is in, so Rollins must get in!” Mike Schmidt is literally the greatest third baseman, not just due to defense but also video game-esque numbers. Schmidt’s average OPS+ is 147, which really puts Rollins’s 97 career OPS+ in a bad light, but I just wanted to note that there is no real comparison between Schmidt and Rollins other than both are/were Phillies and both held the hits record for the Philadelphia Phillies organization. A real comparison for Jimmy Rollins would be Alan Trammell. Trammell, the career Tiger’s shortstop was equally as good defensively as Rollins and has Rollins beat in most counting or rate statistics. More hits, better OBP, better OPS, better OPS+, Trammell has him cornered in about every category and matched with every award, with the exception of Rollins’s 2007 MVP award. Trammell has been on the hall of fame ballot for thirteen years now, receiving only 20.8% of the vote in his thirteenth year on the ballot. As hall of fame season begins during the off-season, I am sure I will have more on the case of Alan Trammell, who should be in.

            What does Trammell’s failed candidacy say about Jimmy Rollins? His chances of making it into Cooperstown seem slim, maybe even non-existent. Rollins best hope is some form of narrative that writers from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Perhaps it will be “Rollins brought a championship to Philadelphia for the second time in the city’s history” or “Rollins won the MVP during a year where there were tons of quality candidates.” I do not buy into any of these narratives and you likely will not either, but there is a slight chance that some of the writers who vote will, and that is where Rollins hope in staying on the ballot for more than one year lies. I am a fan of keeping players who are likely not hall of famers, but had great careers on the ballot for more than one year if only for the discussion it brings up between fans. An example of this would be Kenny Lofton during the last voting process. I dismissed Lofton out of hand without looking up his career numbers. “He was a good player, but he moved around team-to-team so often he could not have been that good” was my thought at the time. After doing fairly extensive research on Lofton, I still came to the conclusion that he was slightly short of being hall of fame-worthy, but the fact that he was on the ballot allowed me to review his career and realize what a great player he truly was. A similar scenario is what I envision and hope for in regards to Jimmy Rollins. He will be remembered as a very good, if not great, two-way player at arguable the most difficult position on the field, shortstop.

            Rollins probably has a couple more years left in him as a valuable starting shortstop, be it for Philadelphia or some team that acquires him in a trade or free agency. His top asset, his defense at shortstop, has slipped some over recent years, but he would be an upgrade for a number of teams, especially those with shortstops who are anemic hitters. The additional years will not alter the case of Jimmy Rollins in any certain way. He will not hit any special marks with home runs, hits, or stolen bases. It is unlikely he will win any more Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers. He probably will not see another all-star appearance with the rise of younger, more athletic shortstops getting that spot. He will not add to his case from an advanced statistical point of view, as there will be no more seasons of 120+ OPS+ or seasons with an OPS over .800. Regardless of the future and Cooperstown, Jimmy Rollins has certainly had a career to remember.

Platelet-Rich Therapy: The Future for Some UCL Injuries or Fraud?

Platelet-Rich Therapy: The Future for Some UCL Injuries or Fraud?

            As everyone is well aware, we have seen an epidemic of UCL injuries, which almost ultimately lead to Tommy John surgery, which is the layman’s term for ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction. The brief history lesson regarding Tommy John surgery is Dr. Frank Jobe performed the first UCL reconstruction on Tommy John in 1974, allowing John to continue pitching after the then experimental surgery was proven to be successful. The UCL is located on the elbow towards the body, as opposed to away from the body. We have seen twenty two Tommy John surgeries done for major league player, not counting minor league or college arm, the most through mid-June in baseball history. I am not a doctor, so I cannot go into great detail as to why these injuries happen beyond constant use of the arm, which should make sense considering it happens largely to players, high velocity pitches, which causes strain on the arm over a period of time, and throwing secondary pitches at an early age. Jo Innes wrote more extensively on Tommy John surgery here.Twins prospect Miguel Sano is one of the rarities that are a player who suffered a torn UCL and was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery.

            In my Cubs draft write-up, I was intrigued by the case of Cubs sixth round selection Dylan Cease, who suffered a partially torn UCL in high school as a senior, which caused his draft stock to fall rather rapidly. Unlike a fully torn UCL, which requires surgery to compete at any athletic level again, a partially torn UCL has other potential options before Tommy John surgery. Dr. Robert F Kacprowicz states that the one way to treat a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament, which he calls an acute UCL tear, without surgery, is with three to six months of physical therapy, cold packs on the elbow, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, such as aspirin. Most recently, this was attempted with the aforementioned top prospect Miguel Sano, but did not prove to be successful as Sano had Tommy John surgery on March 12, 2014. Like many other pitchers, Matt Harvey attempted to go down the physical rehabilitation path in September when he had a partially torn UCL, but ended up having Tommy John surgery in late October after a fruitless physical rehabilitation attempt. One notable pitcher who suffered a torn UCL is Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, who pitched for nearly five years with a partially torn UCL, but that is a rarity in every sense of the word. Physical rehabilitation may be somewhat successful for the average individual, but the vast majority of major league players, notably pitchers, do have to get Tommy John surgery. Tommy John surgery generally allows a pitcher to return back to form, as we have seen with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Carpenter, and John Smoltz among others. Regardless of the success rate, Tommy John surgery can sideline a pitcher for a year or longer, depending upon the rehabilitation and possible setbacks after the surgery.

            Dylan Cease chose not to undergo Tommy John surgery and decided for a relatively new route in partially torn UCL recovery, Platelet-Rich Therapy. Carina Storrs describes Platelet-Rich Therapy as taking thirty milliliters of the patient’s blood, spinning it in a centrifuge to separate the platelet-rich plasma, then taking the platelets and injecting them into the injury location. This relatively new type of treatment for injuries made news in the past few years, with Kobe Bryant and Tiger Woods having used the treatment for knee injuries. Studies on its effectiveness in general, let alone athletes, have been mixed to say the least. While no platelet-rich therapy studies have been done directly looking at its effect on a partially torn UCL due to how new the procedure really is, a new study done on platelet-rich therapy focusing on epicondylitis, best known as tennis elbow, seems to indicate that one should not be too hopeful of the procedure, as  people given platelet-rich therapy fared no better than those given the placebo, saline. On the other hand, another study found that platelet-rich therapy helped individuals with osteoarthritis in the short term. The osteoarthritis study, while not ligament/muscle-based, is one of the few studies that examine platelet-rich therapy and its effectiveness in humans. One study looking platelet-rich therapy in healing ACL injuries, found that those who use the therapy after surgery had significantly more stable knees six months following the surgery. A Lyras, Kazakos, and Verettas study looked at the effects of platelet-rich therapy in rabbit tendons and found that the rabbits received a statistically significant increase in tendon strength early in the platelet-rich therapy process, but the rabbits receive the therapy had the same level of strength as those who did not receive the therapy four weeks later.

Within the next few years more research should come out regarding platelet-rich therapy for tendons and ligaments in humans, but for now the science is inconclusive, which naturally leads to the question why try it? One reason is strong anecdotal evidence, spread from athlete-to-athlete. Basketball player Kobe Bryant had the therapy done for his knee, then told Alex Rodriguez about the therapy, who publicly praised it for helping his knee also. Rodriguez told UFC President Dana White about the therapy, who claimed the procedure “100 percent” cured him of Meniere’s Disease. How much of their success is due to the platelet-rich therapy is unknown. As is well known, Bryant, Rodriguez, and Tiger Woods all continued to struggle with their injuries, despite getting the therapy and praising it. Platelet-rich therapy treatment is viewed as relatively safe. Other than a few hundred or thousand dollars, what does a player have to lose? The alternative, Tommy John surgery, takes a tremendous time to recover from, so players may view it as a quick solution. That is likely the situation Cubs draftee Dylan Cease was in, as Tommy John surgery would have kept him out the remainder of his high school season, hurt his draft stock potentially even more, and would have possibly kept him out of his entire freshman season at Vanderbilt if he were to choose to attend.

The mystery surrounding the procedure leaves him, along with other pitchers to get the therapy, as a question mark, both short-term and long-term. Chad Billingsley attempted the platelet-rich therapy route in 2013 after suffering a UCL tear, but fell victim to Tommy John surgery just starts into the 2013 season. Orioles catcher Matt Wieters had a platelet-rich therapy injection May 12, 2014 in his right elbow, but progress has not been seen in Wieters arm, so he is currently planning to discuss his options with Dr. James Andrews. Phillies pitcher Jonathan Pettibone decided to undergo platelet-rich therapy and a cortisone injection after suffering a torn labrum. In April, Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles received two platelet-rich injections to help with an oblique strain injury and has missed little time since then. According to CBSSports.com, Marco Scutaro, who has yet to play on the year, underwent a procedure similar to platelet-rich therapy, but did not go into detail on what the procedure exactly was. Scutaro remains to be seen on the field. Listing these players and their conditions before and after platelet-rich therapy is nothing more than anecdotal evidence, but it has to raise some eyebrows as to its effective even to those who just want to see correlation.

With Platelet-rich therapy, arrows seemingly point in all directions. One guy says it helps, one guy says it does not help. One study is positive regarding its healing effects, another dismisses the effects when compared to a placebo. I think it is fair to say that there just is not enough data to make a strong judgment in either direction, although the correlation between those who attempt to get platelet-rich therapy and physical rehabilitation and future ligament or muscle issues is hard to overlook. After more research is conducted and platelet-rich therapy is proven to help speed up recovery, akin to human growth hormone, would it be added to the banned substance list? The better question is will they even be able to test for it, considering HGH testing is already poor, and this involves an individual’s own blood essentially being placed back in them. At this point in time though, it is fair to ask if it is likely someone like Dylan Cease will need Tommy John surgery eventually or if platelet-rich therapy is enough to hold him off for a while, akin to Adam Wainwright. This is just my guess, but Cease is likely going to need surgery sooner rather than later. As for what this means as far as the future of UCL injury treatment remains up in the air. In one year from now, we will have a much better idea with the number of platelet-rich therapy studies that are currently underway. At this point in time, one cannot call platelet-rich therapy a fraud, but it is certainly not been an empirical answer to partially torn UCL, which could decrease the amount of Tommy John surgeries done in the future.