Freaky No-Hitters
Yesterday, June 25, 2014, Tim Lincecum of the San
Francisco Giants threw his second career no-hitter, both of which occurred
against the same team, the San Diego Padres, within one calendar year. Only two
pitchers have thrown two no-hitters, have at least two Cy Young Awards, and
have at least two World Series Championships; Sandy Koufax and Lincecum. The
two also have another interesting connection, both were dominant for only a
short period of time, albeit for very different reasons. Koufax pitched twelve
seasons, dominating in the latter half of his career, despite having arthritis problems
that would eventually lead to him retiring at the age of thirty. Many consider
Koufax the greatest pitcher of all-time, if not at least one of the greatest of
all-time. Lincecum, currently thirty, has gone the opposite direction, joining
the Giants in 2007 and having great seasons until 2012. While his 2008 and 2009
Cy Young Award-winning seasons are absolutely dominating (ERA+ of 168 in 2008
and 171 in 2009, with a K/9 over 10 both years), he probably will not be
remembered a tenth as well as Koufax in the future. Koufax was great for six seasons
(and quite possibly the best pitcher in the game during that stretch) and good
for four others. Lincecum was great for two seasons and good for three others.
While
the obvious objection is Tim Lincecum is only thirty years old, he has been on a
downward trend since 2011, posting not league average seasons, but outright bad
seasons. His ERA+ in 2012 was 68, with an ERA of 5.18 in 186 innings pitched. That
season also saw his walk rate spike, going from 3.6 in 2011 to 4.4 in 2012. At
the time it was considered that it was just a fluke bad season for Lincecum,
but 2013 and 2014 concur with 2012. Lincecum’s ERA+ in 2013 was 78 and is
currently at 77 in 2014 (and that is including his no-hitter yesterday). Keep
in mind that an ERA+ of 100 is league average. So why exactly has Tim Lincecum
thrown two no-hitters in two of his three worst seasons in his career? This may
surprise some, but there is no real objective answer here. Is it just mere
luck? Is nature on his side? Is it the work of God? A no-hitter, or even a
perfect game, does not necessarily indicate anything other than a pitcher had a
very good day and pitched well.
In 2012,
Phillip Humber threw a perfect game for the Chicago White Sox, striking out
nine in just 96 pitches. That year Humber posted an ERA+ of 66. Humber currently
struggles on the Oakland Athletics AAA team. In 2010, Edwin Jackson threw a
no-hitter for the Arizona Diamondbacks, walking eighth batter, even hitting one
batter with a pitch, but accomplished the feat after 149 pitches. Jackson was
traded to the Chicago White Sox later that season, posting an ERA+ of 82 with
the Arizona Diamondbacks and 95 total for the 2010 season. On Mother’s Day in
2010, Twenty-six year old Dallas Braden of the Oakland Athletics pitched a
perfect game, striking out six in the process of throwing 109 pitches. Braden posted
an ERA+ of 117 that year. Three games into the 2011 season he left with a
shoulder injury and never pitched another inning again. On July 10, 2009,
struggling fifth starter Jonathan Sanchez pitched a no-hitter for the San
Francisco Giants, walking none, making it one of the rare no-hitters where only
an error stopped it from being a perfect game. For that 2009 season, Sanchez
posted an ERA+ of 100, exactly league average. He followed that year up with a
pretty good 2010, posting an ERA+ of 127, allowing a career low 6.6 hits per
nine innings. Sanchez’s 2011 was disappointing prior to his foot injury that
happened mid-season, posting an ERA+ of 82. 2012 and 2013 saw limited innings
for Sanchez because he was just such a poor pitcher, posting an ERA+ of 53 in
2012 and 31 in 2013. He is currently struggling with the Chicago Cubs AAA team.
In his second year in the major leagues, 1999, Eric Milton pitched a no-hitter
for the Minnesota Twins, leading to him having his best career major league
year with an ERA+ of 113. Milton struggled in mediocrity, with a career ERA of 4.99,
until he retired in 2009.
Of
course, on the flip side of the coin, tons of all-time MLB greats have pitched
no-hitters or perfect games. Randy Johnson, Cy Young, Addie Joss, Nolan Ryan, and
Tom Seaver among the endless list of Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers
who have completed the task. Lincecum is more likely to be grouped in with the
Humber, Braden, and Sanchez, among the many that have thrown no-hitters or
perfect games at this point. His peak was phenomenal, but it was only two seasons.
Randy Johnson had more than two phenomenal seasons. Cy Young had a ton of phenomenal
seasons. Nolan Ryan had a ton of phenomenal seasons. Could Lincecum join that
second group of Hall of Famers still? It is possible, but unlikely. Lincecum is
and has struggled seemingly every other start in the past few seasons. His last
start before the no-hitter had him give up four earned runs in six innings. That
is not a one off thing for Lincecum this season or for 2012 or 2013. He has
clearly lost a step, as he is giving up more walks per nine, less strikeouts
per nine, and more home runs per nine these past few years than he did during
his glory years. Way back in 2008 and 2009, it was talked about how his
delivery would impact the longevity of his career and it appears it has. From
time to time these days, however we do get glimpses of the sure thing that was
Tim Lincecum years ago. These glimpses appear to be nothing more than just
that, glimpses, not signs of recovering into the pitcher he once was. It would
take a herculean improvement in the years to come to be truly compared to whom
many are comparing him to after yesterday’s performance, Sandy Koufax, which is
unlikely. While he may never be that killer arm once again, two no-hitters
against the same team in a calendar year is still a great accomplishment. The
others to accomplish such a feat are Virgil Trucks, Johnny Vander Meer
(no-hitters in back-to-back starts), Allie Reynolds, Nolan Ryan, and Roy
Halladay. A mixed group in terms of overall career trajectory, regardless
Lincecum joined a very rare club Wednesday afternoon.
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