MLB Mid-Season Awards Part
One
July begins tomorrow, meaning the all-star game
approaches, and we are more than halfway through the season. We have a large
enough sample to make some effort in determining who should win various awards
so far based on performance throughout the season. Things can and will
obviously change from here until season’s end, so these are just for fun.
American League Most
Valuable Player: Outfielder Mike Trout (Angels)
Trout continues to be not only the best player in
baseball, but continues a trend that puts him in elite company. Trout, age
twenty-two, is now the all-time leader in fWAR among MLB players in history
through their age twenty-two season. He currently leads Ty Cobb by 0.7 fWAR
with a good portion of the season remaining. As of right now, Trout is a once-in-a-lifetime-type
player. In 344 plate appearances this season, Mike Trout has an OPS of 1.017, a
career-high in an already impressive career. His weighted on base average, or
wOBA, is second in all of baseball only to Troy Tulowitzki, at .432. Tulowitzki
has a pretty stark home/away difference in terms of batting and power, giving
Trout the edge as the best player in baseball. This is not as stark with Trout,
who has a home OPS of 1.025 and an away OPS of 1.009. That kind of consistency
is what makes Trout a better hitter. Beyond the bat, Trout is as close to
perfect as you will see today. His baserunning is arguably the best in baseball,
with good speed, especially for someone with his size. Some may say he has
developed an 80 power tool, hitting a home run that was unofficially measured
at 489 feet, but regardless of where you rate the power, it is there, as he has
hit eighteen thus far and is likely to reach a career-high by year’s end. Trout
has been good-to-very good defensively, spending the entire season in center
field. I can understand the argument behind Tulowitzki if you want to try it,
but I think the home/away split and baserunning separates him by quite a bit.
National League Most
Valuable Player: Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)
At
Coors, Tulowitzki is Superman, putting up a ridiculous OPS of 1.309. His home
wOBA is scale-breaking at .553. Tulowitzki OPS away from Coors has been .831,
which is a massive split. His away wOBA is .362, which is still very good, but
not the Superman-type stuff we have been seeing at Coors. Despite this huge
split, Tulowitzki is my choice for National League MVP. I am not going to hand
wave away numbers because they were at Coors. Would he be less productive if he
were on say the Pirates? Yes, but we are not talking in theoretical here. Not
only is Tulowitzki one of the game’s best offensive players, but he plays good
defense at one of the most valuable positions in baseball, if not the most
valuable, at shortstop. I am not much of defensive metrics in producing usable
objective numbers, especially at a position like shortstop, but that is another
long discussion. Some might argue Giancarlo Stanton, who does not have a big
split like Troy Tulowitzki, or Jonathan Lucroy because you think pitch framing
is the most valuable asset in baseball (wait for my upcoming series on pitch
framing), and I think as the season progresses Stanton might make a good run.
Stanton has an OPS of .999 and a wOBA of .422 currently and plays right field,
which is also a very valuable position. I really think there is a fifty/fifty
shot at Stanton being named the MVP at year’s end.
American League Cy
Young Award: Starting Pitcher Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
This is probably the toughest race of all award races,
but I am going to go with Felix Hernandez by a hair over Masahiro Tanaka. They
are close in nearly all categories, with Tanaka leading in strikeouts per nine
innings and walks per nine innings, but Felix clobbers him in home runs per
nine innings, giving up 0.28 per nine innings as opposed to Tanaka’s 1.01 per
nine innings. The first argument against this is that Felix pitches in a more
pitcher-friendly park, which is true, but like the Tulowitzki argument, I do
not like normalizing park factors, especially with pitchers because they
actually play their games in these stadiums. If we were talking who is
theoretically the better pitcher, then that HR/9 rate might mean less, but we
are talking in reality. Hernandez also edges him in my favorite pitching
statistic, SIERA, with a SIERA of 2.42 to Tanaka’s 2.52. Someone is going to
take this as I do not like Masahiro Tanaka or I am magically biased to the
Seattle Mariners or something, but that is not that case. I really would not be
opposed to flipping a coin at this point because things are so close between
the two.
National League Cy
Young Award: Starting Pitcher Johnny Cueto (Reds)
In a somwhat easier race, the NL Cy Young belongs to
Johnny Cueto thus far. Cueto has been a killer on the mound, giving up only 5.4
hits per nine innings, which plays a part in his league-leading ERA of 1.88.
After 124.1 innings pitched, Cueto’s ERA+ sits at 195, which has the average
pitcher at 100, which can give you an idea how great Cueto has been for the
Cincinnati Reds this season. Although he only strikes out 8.83 per nine
innings, he does walk a low 2.10 batters per nine innings and only manages to
give up 0.65 home runs per nine innings. Adam Wainwright is a close second, but
it is not hairsplitting, like the AL Cy Young race, as he gives up one entire
hit more than Cueto per nine innings, despite having a good edge in walks per
nine innings, only walking 1.7 per nine innings to Cueto’s 2.1 per nine
innings. This is also a close race and there is a decent shot that Wainwright
will earn the award by year’s end, but for now Cueto is the man.
American League
Rookie of the Year: Starting Pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees)
I outlined the case for Tanaka for the Cy Young earlier,
so it should be no surprise that he will take the spot for AL RotY. The only
other contender is Chicago White Sox power slugger Jose Abreu. Abreu is having
a fantastic year, putting up an OPS of .953 and a wOBA of .401. With 25 home runs, Abreu would be the
American League Rookie of the Year in most years, just not this year with
Masahiro Tanaka’s domination. Tanaka has an ERA of 2.10, a K/9 of 9.88, a BB/9
of 1.40, and a HR/9 of 1.01. Like mentioned, those are strong Cy Young award
contender numbers, let alone Rookie of the Year numbers. One point beyond the
numbers is Jose Abreu’s lack of ability to make solid contact with anything
that is not pitched straight/flat into the strikezone. If you pitch to him
slightly out of the strike zone, or even around the edges, you have a good chance
of him not making contact and swinging at the pitch. I do not think Abreu can
make changes quick enough in the second half of the season to correct this, but
in the future it is possible. As for this year, Tanaka has shown little, if
any, weaknesses.
National League
Rookie of the Year: Shortstop Chris Owings (Diamondbacks)
Owings is essentially NL Rookie of the Year by default,
as there has not been anyone to really emerge from the pack of rookies in the
National League as we have seen with the American League. Cincinnati Reds
outfielder Billy Hamilton is a close second, with 34 stolen bases. It comes
down to how much you value shortstop over center field, which you should,
shortstop is the more difficult position. Not only does Owings play the tougher
position, but he has the better OPS at .771, wOBA at .336, and wRC+ of 109
compared to Hamilton’s OPS of .717, a wOBA of .315, and a wRC+ of 98. You can
go with Hamilton’s 2.9 fWAR over Owings’ 1.8 fWAR, but I just do not see
Hamilton’s speed value in addition to his bat beating Owings’ bat. At this
point we still have contenders to emerge because this is such a shallow field,
like Kevin Siegrist and Andrew Heaney. There has been so little in the NL
rookie field, that I honestly considered leaving this vacant, but decided to go
with someone, regardless of the strength of the candidates, as someone is going
to win this award.
Excellent rundown of all categories. Keep up the nice work.
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