Jimmy
Rollins: Hall of Famer?
Yesterday,
June 14, 2014, Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins surpassed Mike
Schmidt’s record for most hits with the Philadelphia Phillies, hitting number 2,235
off Edwin Jackson of the Chicago Cubs in his third at bat. One would have to
immediately wonder if breaking a mark held by Mike Schmidt, whom many would
consider the greatest third baseman of all-time, puts Rollins in the discussion
for a hall of fame spot. Rollins is not a guy you completely rule out upon
immediately hearing his name, but has he achieved enough to be voted into the
hall of fame, let alone be in the discussion.
35
year old Rollins has played in Major League Baseball for fifteen years, all of
which he has spent with the Philadelphia Phillies. His first four years with
the team were subpar offensively statistically speaking, but Rollins had two of
his three all-star appearances within those first four years, if you were to
include his 2000 14 game big league stint, which I am including out of kindness.
His OPS+, which normalizes park effects and allows us to compare players
offensive output in a fair way, with 100 being league average, for those first
four seasons are 83, 93, 85, and 90. Another comprehensive statistic to measure
the offensive output for a given player is wOBA, weighted on base average,
which also paints Rollins as subpar in those first four seasons, with two
average scores, one below average score, and a poor score. Why exactly did
Rollins get elected to two all-star teams (the value of an all-star team
appearance can be debated, but I will leave it alone for now) with such mediocre
offense? The answer is found in his defense. Measuring defense comprehensively
and well with statistics is just not possible at this point in time, so when
one measures defense it should be by the eye largely. A statistic like
defensive WAR is weak due to how it poorly measures defense (if it is not, then Andrelton Simmons is already one
of the greatest players of all-time), UZR is weird with locations, and errors
are often left up to the official scorer, who may be incompetent or biased.
Going
beyond just those four years, Rollins has been one of the premier defensive
shortstops in Major League Baseball during his tenure. His quick decision making,
his speed, his agility, and his arm all make him a top defensive shortstop,
making up for what he may lack offensively. Rollins probably does not get
enough credit defensively due to playing alongside Omar Vizquel, who is
unquestionably one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all-time. I am sure
most who are reading this have seen Rollins play at least once on television or
online, allowing even the most casual fan to see what a tremendous defense
asset Jimmy Rollins is at shortstop. So much of defensive ability in baseball
history is unfortunately left to the individuals who saw a player play or
covered a team, which is why Honus Wagner is considered one of the greatest, if
not the greatest shortstop, of all-time. Is Rollins on the level of Wagner,
Vizquel, or Ozzie Smith? Most likely not, but that question would be better
suited for an actual baseball historian. Is Rollins defense a big positive into
moving him into the hall of fame discussion? Without a doubt, his defense plays
one big role.
Rollins
added to his mastery as a defensive shortstop with some quality seasons
offensively, posting three seasons with an OPS over .800, six seasons with an
OPS+ better than 100, and a wOBA north of .340, including his 2007 Most
Valuable Player award winning season in which he posted a weighted on base
average of .371. Only once did Rollins have a batting average over .300 and
that was his 14 game rookie ‘season’. While all of those are positives, with
the exception of the 2007 MVP season, Rollins has posted merely good numbers at
best. Rollins possesses nothing extraordinary in counting statistics (runs,
home runs, stolen bases) outside of his team record 2,235 hits. I would
certainly hope someone would not use the argument that “Schmidt is in, so
Rollins must get in!” Mike Schmidt is literally the greatest third baseman, not
just due to defense but also video game-esque numbers. Schmidt’s average OPS+
is 147, which really puts Rollins’s 97 career OPS+ in a bad light, but I just
wanted to note that there is no real comparison between Schmidt and Rollins
other than both are/were Phillies and both held the hits record for the
Philadelphia Phillies organization. A real comparison for Jimmy Rollins would
be Alan Trammell. Trammell, the career Tiger’s shortstop was equally as good
defensively as Rollins and has Rollins beat in most counting or rate
statistics. More hits, better OBP, better OPS, better OPS+, Trammell has him
cornered in about every category and matched with every award, with the
exception of Rollins’s 2007 MVP award. Trammell has been on the hall of fame
ballot for thirteen years now, receiving only 20.8% of the vote in his
thirteenth year on the ballot. As hall of fame season begins during the
off-season, I am sure I will have more on the case of Alan Trammell, who should
be in.
What
does Trammell’s failed candidacy say about Jimmy Rollins? His chances of making
it into Cooperstown seem slim, maybe even non-existent. Rollins best hope is
some form of narrative that writers from the Baseball Writers Association of
America. Perhaps it will be “Rollins brought a championship to Philadelphia for
the second time in the city’s history” or “Rollins won the MVP during a year
where there were tons of quality candidates.” I do not buy into any of these
narratives and you likely will not either, but there is a slight chance that
some of the writers who vote will, and that is where Rollins hope in staying on
the ballot for more than one year lies. I am a fan of keeping players who are
likely not hall of famers, but had great careers on the ballot for more than
one year if only for the discussion it brings up between fans. An example of
this would be Kenny Lofton during the last voting process. I dismissed Lofton
out of hand without looking up his career numbers. “He was a good player, but
he moved around team-to-team so often he could not have been that good” was my
thought at the time. After doing fairly extensive research on Lofton, I still
came to the conclusion that he was slightly short of being hall of fame-worthy,
but the fact that he was on the ballot allowed me to review his career and
realize what a great player he truly was. A similar scenario is what I envision
and hope for in regards to Jimmy Rollins. He will be remembered as a very good,
if not great, two-way player at arguable the most difficult position on the
field, shortstop.
Rollins
probably has a couple more years left in him as a valuable starting shortstop,
be it for Philadelphia or some team that acquires him in a trade or free
agency. His top asset, his defense at shortstop, has slipped some over recent
years, but he would be an upgrade for a number of teams, especially those with
shortstops who are anemic hitters. The additional years will not alter the case
of Jimmy Rollins in any certain way. He will not hit any special marks with
home runs, hits, or stolen bases. It is unlikely he will win any more Gold
Gloves, Silver Sluggers. He probably will not see another all-star appearance with
the rise of younger, more athletic shortstops getting that spot. He will not
add to his case from an advanced statistical point of view, as there will be no
more seasons of 120+ OPS+ or seasons with an OPS over .800. Regardless of the
future and Cooperstown, Jimmy Rollins has certainly had a career to remember.
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