What to Make of Miami Marlin
Andrew Heaney So Far
Last night, June 19, 2014, starting pitcher Andrew Heaney
made his major league debut with the Miami Marlins, pitching six innings,
allowing four hits, one of which was a home run and the only run scored against
Heaney and one walk. Heaney’s thunder was taken away by Zack Wheeler who
pitched his first complete game shutout, in which he struck out eight. Make no
mistake, Wheeler was the better pitcher last night, but I am not in the camp
that he will be the better pitcher in the long-run.
Left-handed
pitcher Andrew Heaney is the number one prospect for the Miami Marlins in a
relatively deep farm system. Heaney, originally drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays
out of high school, opted to attend college at Oklahoma State University, where
he was drafted as the ninth overall pick by the Miami Marlins in 2012, after
his junior season. He showed massive improvement during his junior season, in
which he had a K/9 ratio of 10.65, up from 6.85, which he posted during his
sophomore season. He also saw his BB/9 ratio drop from 3.09 to 1.67 from his
sophomore to junior season at Oklahoma State University. He led the Big 12 in
strikeouts in 2012, throwing 140 strikeouts. After being drafted, Heaney
struggled slightly in Rookie/Low-A ball, posting a 4.95 ERA with Low-A ball team,
the Greenville Grasshoppers. Prior to his first full minor league season in
2013, Heaney was ranked 43rd by Baseball America and 81st
by MLB.com. He exceeded those and all expectations, posting a 0.88 ERA in 61.2
innings pitched in High-A ball, then a 2.94 ERA in 33.2 innings pitched for AA Jacksonville
Suns.
Coming
into the 2014 season, Heaney’s stock skyrocketed, being declared the 30th
best prospect by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus and the 29th
best prospect. He was widely agreed as the best Miami Marlins prospect after
Jose Fernandez and Jake Marisnick were called up. Containing to pitch for the
Jacksonville Suns, Heaney posted a 2.35 ERA in 53.2 innings pitched. Before his
callup this past week, Heaney pitched 23 innings in AAA with an ERA of 2.74,
with a 10.6 K/9. While numbers only tell part of the story when evaluating a prospect
and how successful they will be in Major League Baseball, pitchers who struggle
in the minors rarely work out in the majors. This is not relevant to Andrew
Heaney as he played well in the minor leagues by any possible definition.
Heaney’s
fastball, which were the majority of his pitches last night, sits at about
91-93, hitting 95 frequently, and topping out at 97. Although scouts describe his
fastball as a plus due to the movement of the pitch, batters tend to make
enough contact with it to be concerned at times. I am trying not to put too
much judgment into the one game last night, where a considerable amount of
contact was made off of Heaney’s fastball, but it is tempting to look at it at
make a judgment. His slider/sinker is his best pitch (easy plus pitch), but
only made up 17.6% of the 91 pitches Heaney threw. 64.4% of those slider/sinker
pitches that he threw were called strikes. His curveball is about league
average and could develop into above league average. Heaney showed a lack of
confidence in the curveball, throwing it only 1.1% of the time in last night’s
game. It is probably his weakest secondary pitch at this time, so slowly
increasing the amount of times he throws it throughout the season is not a bad idea.
Heaney has an above average changeup which induced some swing and misses by
batters. His changeup maxed out at 83.5 and induced a good amount of groundballs.
To paint a better picture of Andrew Heaney’s night against the New York Mets,
let us take a look at the PitchF/X plot.
Where the ball was
when it left his hand
Where the ball was
when it reached the plate
Heaney is described as having plus control, which the
first graphic affirms, but the second graphic shows issues with command. Like
stated, a number of his pitches have movement, often appearing erratic at
times. I would not worry about it yet, it is one start and this is the only
PitchF/X data we have to go off of. It could be nerves, as it is his first
major league start. If the erratic command is there for a full season, it is
worth discussing, but it is just an interesting thing to point out for now.
Pitch speed
For
completeness, I wanted to post the speed of each pitch Andrew Heaney threw
throughout the game and it is normal. You see the drop-offs for secondary
pitches and a slightly decrease in fastball velocity after 90 pitches. About
average stuff you would see in most pitchers.
Where
does Andrew Heaney end up? Most sites like Baseball America, Baseball
Prospectus, and MLB.com predict him as a 2/3 starter on the Marlins, which
seems likely to me. I am not reaching this conclusion from his first outing
against the New York Mets, but rather the success he has shown at the minor
league level. He did not dominate minor league ball like an ace would, but pitched
very well at the lower league level and has two plus pitches and two pitches
that are going to end up above average. That easily fits the profile of a 2/3
starter on a winning team. When Jose Fernandez returns, the Marlins may have
one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, with both Fernandez and Heaney.
Clips from Heaney's MLB Debut with the Miami Marlins
Clips from Heaney's MLB Debut with the Miami Marlins
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