Did Clayton
Kershaw Throw The Greatest Game Ever?
Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw had the best
game yet in his seven year career Wednesday night, June 18, 2014. In nine
innings, Kershaw threw fifteen strikeouts and walked zero over the course of
nine innings. It would have been a perfect game had Dodgers shortstop Hanley
Ramirez not made a throwing error. While I understand the traditional importance
of no-hitters and perfect games, the error proves how meaningless the terms are
outside of being cool moments. When evaluating a pitcher, one should look at
everything the pitcher can control and as little else as possible. Hanley
Ramirez’s error does not change everything Clayton Kershaw did. Kershaw could
not control that error. By this logic, the ideal greatest game error would be
twenty-seven strikeouts with zero walks, but the odds of that game occurring
are very slim. This type of idea leads back to the old game score system
created by Bill James.
Basically, game score adds points for each out recorded,
each strikeout, and each inning after four innings, while subtracting for each
hit, each earned run, each unearned run, and each walk. Each pitcher starts out
with fifty points and then the additions and subtractions are then carried out
as the game progresses. For a more detailed explanation, just check out the Fangraphs
or Wikipedia pages on how to calculate a score in-depth. It is an old and
relatively rudimentary system, but one that I find fair to pitchers. The system
has a maximum/best possible score of 114, something that has never and will
never likely be achieved. Clayton Kershaw’s game score last night was 102, the
second highest recorded score in history (for fairness purposes I am excluding
outliers who pitched more than nine innings, such as Joe Oeschger 26 inning
performance). This illustrates what a magnificent performance it truly was. There
have been twenty-three perfect games in the history of Major League Baseball
and Kershaw’s no-hitter was better than each and every one of them. If you are
wondering how that is possible, it basically boils down to strikeouts. Mark
Buehrle and Dallas Braden only had six strikeouts in their perfect games, with
the remaining outs either being ground outs or flyball outs. When it comes to
measuring pitcher performance, not all outs are created equally, as the pitcher
should try and eliminate the need for the field to make a play to get an out,
going back to the best hypothetical game is the twenty-seven strikeout game.
If we were just discussing good or great games, I would
not be as concerned with walks, but when you are attempting to measure all-time
great games, walks become a big concern, as they leave a runner on base with
the pitcher unable to change that fact by themselves (unless the runner is
picked off the bag). That lone walked man on base could eventually score in a
no-hitter after a few flyballs to the outfield, allow the score of the game to
change, which is why walks are measured in these types of all-time great performances.
Just as the goal of a batter is to get on base, the goal of a pitcher is to
ensure runners do not get on base. At the risk of being repetitive, when the
ball is hit it is up to the fielder to ensure the runner does not get on base,
whereas a strikeout is the pitcher himself ensuring that the runner does not
get on base.
The greatest game ever pitched happened May 6, 1998, as
Kerry Wood posted a game score of 105, the closest to perfect ever recorded in
major league history. Unlike Kershaw’s no-hitter or the twenty three perfect
games, Wood did allow one infield single to Ricky GutiƩrrez, which fans argue
to this very day that the hit should’ve been an error charged on Kevin Orie
(and there is a good case there for that). Wood struck out twenty, allowing no
walks in the process, during his demolition of the Houston Astros. This brings
up one big imperfection with game score, it does not take into account the team
the player pitched against. Numerous perfect games and no-hitters were pitched
against Tampa Bay Rays teams that finished with poor records. Clayton Kershaw
pitched against the 2014 Colorado Rockies, who have a slightly above average
league offense. Troy Tulowitzki is having an insane season, especially at home,
posting an OPS+ of 184, which makes him the frontrunner for National League
Most Valuable Player so far. His OPS+ is likely to drop some as the season
progresses, but we are at a point where it is no longer small sample size,
rather Tulowtizki having an all-time great season for a shortstop. While
Kershaw failed to strikeout Tulowitzki, Tulowitzki failed to reach base on a
hit or walk. Outside of Tulowitzki, Morneau and Blackmon are having good
seasons, but the rest of the lineup is average to say the least. The 1998
Houston Astros won 102 games, having five players with an OPS+ over 120, two of
which were Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. Wood struck out Craig Biggio once,
Moises Alou three times, Jeff Bagwell three times, and Derek Bell twice among
the other Astros batters. Wood faced tougher competition and struck them out
more often, while allowing the same amount of walks Kershaw did, zero.
Three games closely follow Kershaw’s game score of 102:
Matt Cain’s perfect game, one of Nolan Ryan’s no-hitters, and Sandy Koufax’s
perfect game. All three games received a game score of 101. Ryan’s game and
Koufax’s game both faced similarly-level talent as Kershaw’s no-hitter, while
Matt Cain’s perfect game came against a horrendous rebuilding Houston Astros
team. There are obviously other ways to measure how well a pitcher performed
other than game score, because as I have stated, it is a fairly basic way of
measurement. If one wants to use some other form of measurement to try and rank
Kershaw’s performance higher or lower, that is understandable, but for
discussion’s sake I am trying to keep this fairly simple and easy to
understand.
So, did Clayton Kershaw throw the best game in baseball
history? No, I do not see any way to spin it as that as you can go with Wood as
the best nine inning performance in the history of baseball or you can go with
some deadball pitchers who pitched 20+ innings, which inflated their game score.
One may also try and argue that Koufax’s perfect game or Nolan Ryan’s no-hitter
came against better talent, but it really is splitting hairs there. Is it fair
to say that Clayton Kershaw just pitched the greatest no-hitter in the history
of Major League Baseball? It is absolutely fair to state that it is the
greatest no-hitter in the history of baseball because of the number of strikeouts,
zero walks, the game score, and the level of talent Clayton Kershaw was up
against. Regardless of where one wants to rank his performance on the all-time
great chart, last night we witnessed true greatness by a pitcher.
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